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Bubble play calling range, $7 Turbo Fifty50, final hand

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Bubble play calling range, $7 Turbo Fifty50, final hand - Sat Aug 24, 2013, 03:04 AM
(#1)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
The last hand of the same tournament as in another thread. 8 hands later. The big stack has kept stealing blinds and is now even bigger. It looked like his shove range was 100% whereas everyone else's call range was close to 0%.



I've got a stack of 1.65 BB. I'm slightly out of position. The big stack raises and I'm the next to act with my 33. Is this a call or a fold? What's my profitable range here? I expect everyone behind me to fold except for Villain 7 with only 10 chips to call.

EDIT: Villain 7 is all-in on BB.


Well, as it turned out, everyone behind me didn't fold but I got really lucky (or did I?)

The final results:

1: Villain_8 (Indonesia), $29.66 (44.401%)
2: raccy (Australia), $11.78 (17.634%)
3: Villain_3 (China), $9.61 (14.386%)
4: Villain_2 (Canada), $9.07 (13.577%)
5: Villain_5 (Canada), $6.68 (10%)

Last edited by raccy; Mon Aug 26, 2013 at 04:06 AM.. Reason: Hand replayer seems to ignore the BB being all-in.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 04:19 AM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
as I see one left to be busted right? and this one has left just 10 chips, right? It's clear fold because he might fold there after your shove(I would fold if were this guy). he is busted next hand 95% of time.
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File Type: jpg Bild 131.jpg (62.2 KB, 80 views)
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 05:05 AM
(#3)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
The shortest stack is 60 chips but he's got only 10 to call. The replayer doesn't seem to show it but he calls. If he wins, he'll have over 300 chips which is enough for the next 3 hands. If I fold and he wins, I've got enough chips for the next 2-3 hands. But I'm actually more interested in money than survival. So if I call and lose this hand and finish 6th, I'll cash $0. If I lose and finish 5th, I'll cash $6.68. If I win I'll cash some more. If I fold, I'll have a decent chance of cashing around $7.

Anyway. I was expecting a coin flip with around 50% chance of doubling up and well, what should I expect of my chances of finishing 6th if I call?
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 05:41 AM
(#4)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
His call is mistake I think, and I made my decision in the case when he folds. and if we fold he will call 100% of the time and he will be busted at least 65% of the time.

Last edited by Shichi-77; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 05:44 AM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 07:28 AM
(#5)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
If you call and lose you get nothing
If you call and win you get just over $7
If you fold you have a good chance of making $7 anyway.

This is an ICM spot and I think folding is your best option because from the 3 scenario's above you are winning 2/3rds of the time and losing 1/3rd.

When I'm at the bubble stage of any STT I'm thinking do I need to do the work? If there are shorter stacks than me then I'll look at where the button is in relation to me. Let others do the work, make the money first and win the tournament 2nd.


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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 08:22 AM
(#6)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Ovalman, you may have missed something. Villain 5 called, lost, and cashed $6.68. The same could've happened to me too. If you finish in the top 5, you will cash with 0 chips.

If I fold, and the short stack is the only caller, I'd say he's got a 50/50 chance of winning the pot against the big stack's 100% range.

Anyway, there's the risk and there's the reward, and there's the ICM. This is a very common ending in these Fifty50 SnGs. By the way, being the chip leader is under-rated in the ICM if you only consider one played hand. Just consider my position in this tournament if no one is knocked out.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 08:59 AM
(#7)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
33 is never strong enough to call in any spot and 3 ways it definitely doesn't work well.

This is a fold from me.


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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 09:59 AM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
It's also a fold for me
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 11:34 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi raccy!

Being on the bubble and with an opp that will blind out next hand, there is no way that I'd even consider calling with a marginal hand here. I'd only call with a premium made hand (AA and maybe KK or QQ) and if I thought that the opps would stay with any ace, I'm even highly considering mucking the kings or queens.

For me to not get ITM if I fold, I would need to have the opp with 10 chips win 2 straight hands without someone else busting. This is not normally going to happen and since a min cash is worth well more than what I would win by playing the hand, this has to be priority one.
A min cash is worth $6.68, so to equal this, I would need to be guaranteed to win 3036 chips and with a very marginal hand like 33, I will not be guaranteed on average to win over 3k chips especially when I only have 660 chips to start with.

Easy fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 12:07 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Being on the bubble and with an opp that will blind out next hand, there is no way that I'd even consider calling with a marginal hand here.
Quoted for emphasis. Your actual hand isn't important here. It's all about the stack sizes of the other players. If I'm virtually guaranteed to make the money by folding, then I'm folding. The microstack has almost no chance of surviving so I'd sit tight and let him go out.


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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:05 PM
(#11)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
The hand replayer isn't showing this right. Those 10 chips that it shows got me all confused too. Villain 7 is all-in after he pays the 50-chip ante and 10 chips for the BB. He can't fold because he's the BB. You also don't see the main pot of 340 chips for some reason, or side-pot 1 of 1950 chips. You see side-pot 2 (390) which the big stack won.

Anyway, if Villain 7 wins and everyone after the big stack folds, he'll have 330 chips. The next hand costs him 250 chips, then 50 (or 60), and then he'll be all in. He can see three more hands before he's blinded out. If the blinds go up (which they do at 3-minute levels), I've got only two more hands before I'm blinded out.

Also, if it's the shortest stack heads-up with the big stack... well in this case the short stack wins 57.5% of the time Ah 5s vs. Qs Kc. If I call with 3d 3h, the odds of the short stack winning will drop, in this case his chances of winning would be 32.5%. But then a fourth player calls with 7s 7d and the short stack only has a 20.8% chance of winning.

If I fold, I've got a 42% chance of cashing just over $8 but a 57% chance of being blinded out.
If I call, I'll finish 6th if the short stack wins (32.5%) and if the big stack wins the side pot (47%). That's roughly 15%. With the fourth player in, the short stack has to win the main pot (20.8%) and I have to lose the side pot (82%) to finish 6th. That's roughly 17%.

So my risk of losing the $7 buy-in by calling is around 15-17%. The villains do have stronger than average starting hands but it probably doesn't make a big difference against 33.

The reward for winning: main pot 340 chips ($0.75) + side pot 1295 chips ($2.85). Is the 15% risk worth the 31% chance of winning $10.28 and a 36% chance of winning $6.68 and the 17% chance of winning 1295 chips (worth $9.53)?

I didn't expect a fourth caller but that would make it a 17% risk and a small chance of a $6.68 + $5.10 reward.

Now does someone want to convince me to fold my hand next time in this spot?

Last edited by raccy; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 01:15 PM..
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:10 PM
(#12)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Quoted for emphasis. Your actual hand isn't important here. It's all about the stack sizes of the other players. If I'm virtually guaranteed to make the money by folding, then I'm folding. The microstack has almost no chance of surviving so I'd sit tight and let him go out.
I agree. This is the reason why I reluctantly folded KQ in the previous hand when the big stack raised. But in this hand, no one's going to be blinded out the next hand. The microstack is already all-in. If they win, I'll be the next one to be blinded out.
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:15 PM
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Hi raccy!

I'm still folding here. The low stack has to win TWO hands in a row to cause me to have a chance not to cash. It is not worth the risk with a marginal hand.

John (JWK24)


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Sun Aug 25, 2013, 06:24 AM
(#14)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi raccy!

I'm still folding here. The low stack has to win TWO hands in a row to cause me to have a chance not to cash. It is not worth the risk with a marginal hand.

John (JWK24)
Would you mind explaining this one? If the low stack wins, he'll have at least 330 chips. He can fold the next two hands and watch me go all-in because I'm blinded out.

Without knowing or assuming what anyone else might be holding, this is how I see it.

FOLD
  • 50% of cashing $8.13
  • 50% chance of seeing the next hand with 660 chips and similar odds, then the one after that with 50-80% chance of being eliminated.

CALL
  • 15% chance of cashing $0
  • 15% chance of seeing the next hand with 1295 chips (worth $9.53)
  • 36% chance of cashing $10.28
  • 34% chance of cashing $6.68

Compare: Fold = 50% chance of immediate cash reward, Call = 70% chance of immediate cash reward

If anyone disagrees with my numbers, please suggest better ones. It gets slightly more complicated if you add the probability of someone else behind me calling but it shouldn't change the numbers a whole lot.

Then convince me why folding is an option here. Think of it this way: I'm not getting a 15% chance of finishing 6th in the next two hands but here it is. I'll be in the pot with an 85% chance of survival.
 
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Sun Aug 25, 2013, 11:34 AM
(#15)
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It's nowhere near 50% for cashing $8.13... it's MUCH higher. That player is in with a random hand. Their odds of winning the hand will be much lower and when you combine it with the same ATC they would be forced to play in the next hand, if they get lucky the first time.... their odds of winning 2 hands is not 50%.

Say the opp is playing wide against them, say 30%, then the random hand wins 38% of the time. Same thing the next hand. Therefore, that opp will really win 14.4% of the time. If the opp is tighter than 30%, then that number drops to a lower win rate for them.

From this, I get $8.13 85.6% of the time... not 50% of the time.

Since I'm locking up over $8 over 85% of the time.. I'm folding!

John (JWK24)

P.S. If I call, I will also win nowhere near 36% of the time. It's more like 22% of the time. 59% of the time, I would get $6.68.

All of these %'s are taken from pokerstove.


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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 02:03 AM
(#16)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
There are two players in the pot with random hands if everyone who can folds. That's where I get the 50/50 odds. Now you're suggesting better than 5 to 1 odds for the big stack to win heads-up against the small stack?

The short stack doesn't have to play the next hand because they can fold. And if they win this hand, I won't have the chips to cash $8.13 after the next hand.

Why would the short stack play any more hands if they win this one? Why not just fold their way to the money? Maybe your pokerstove didn't get the chip counts right? Or maybe it doesn't know that the short stack can fold the next two hands so slowly that the blinds will go up on me?

Against one random hand, 33 wins 54%, and that's all I need. I don't need to beat the short stack to survive.

I think a fold here is an equity loser. Villain 5 agrees.
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 03:54 AM
(#17)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Downloaded pokerstove, installed it, but couldn't run it because it had expired? Then downloaded the 30-day trial version of SnG Wizard. I haven't looked at the various options there so I assume I'm using the default settings. Here's what it says:

PokerStars : Fifty50 (60,10,10,10,10)
Blinds: 200/60/50
EqPC: 782
EqFC: 660
DiffC: 122
EdgeC: -18
Suggest: Push
55.1 (22+,A2+,K5+,K2s+,Q8+,Q2s+,J8+,J3s+,T7+,T4s+,97+,9 5s+,87,85s+,76,74s+,64s+,53s+)

I changed "EdgeC" to 0 and get this:
Suggest: Push
48.7 (22+,A2+,K6+,K2s+,Q8+,Q4s+,J8+,J5s+,T8+,T6s+,98,96 s+,87,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s)

It should be an easy call.
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 10:18 AM
(#18)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
raccy,

The SnG Wizzard was designed for regular SnG's. NOT 50/50'
The main goal for 50/50 is to finish in top 5
If it was a regular SnG, I would agree with you, but it's NOT
Numbers are just that, numbers
FOLD is the play here
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 12:06 PM
(#19)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Sandtrap,

Finishing in the top 5 would be the main goal of a satellite tournament where the top 5 win a tournament ticket. Chip counts matter in a Fifty50 tournament. Maximising your chip count at the end is more profitable in the long run than maximizing your top 5 finishes.

A quote from this website http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitand...-strategy.html:

Note: SNG Wiz now supports Fifty 50 SNGs for ICM Calculations

Of all the different tournament structures, I chose PokerStars Fifty50 for the analysis. If you don't like the SnG Wizard, maybe you could suggest a better hand analyzer? Or even better, tell them how to fix their wizard if you think they're getting this all wrong?

I changed the tournament structure into "Double or Nothing" which is like a satellite tournament where chip counts are ignored. The suggestion is still the same: Push.

One thing that makes a difference is the model for the big stack. By default, their opening range is 36%, but considering that they've stolen blinds the last round or two, they're opening much wider than that. You can change their open range to "Loose" 43% and that makes my push range 61.1%. Or you can change it to "Very tight" 14% which makes my push range 26.7%, still an easy call with 33.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg fifty50.jpg (92.0 KB, 2 views)
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 12:29 PM
(#20)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
Maximising your chip count at the end is more profitable in the long run than maximizing your top 5 finishes.
I thoroughly disagree, as this statement is nowhere near true. Here's why and I'll use this hand as the example.
I'm risking $6.68 to win about an extra $3.60, which means that I need to win the hand well over 1/2 the time in order to break even. 33 wins only 22% of the time.. so taking the risk here is -EV.

If playing the hand is +EV, then it's worth the risk... here, it is definitely not.

By calling, .22(10.28)+.59(6.68)+.19(-7).. my EV is $4.87
By folding, .86(8.13)+.14(-7).. my EV is $6.01

If I can get a return of $6.01 by folding or $4.87 by calling.... I want the $6.01!

John (JWK24)


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