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FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river?

FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river? - Sat Aug 24, 2013, 12:53 PM
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148

no reads on villain
couldnt he have a set, str8 or AT with the A of clubs? (OTT)

Last edited by Espada_Nu.4; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 12:56 PM..
Sat Aug 24, 2013, 02:09 PM
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
No way I am folding river unless he overbets to a ridiculous amount.
But the value bet could indicate a lower flush or a straight, so we can't really do much but call.
Sun Aug 25, 2013, 06:38 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Espada,

The chance to flop a flush is 1 in 118 or <1%; so you can imagine the unlikely hood of two opponents flopping a flush which makes this hand sick!
With that said, I think I would bet the flop and turn bigger to protect from naked clubs when we are raised OTT I think this is a way ahead - way behind situation because given the board texture and our holding if they have a flush they have us beat. Against a limping range of {TT-22, AT-A2, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT, T9s-54s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-86s, J8s-T7s } they have 7 combos of flushes: Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc which all beat us.
There are 27 combos that would raise the turn: Flush, Straight, Two Pair, Set of Tens.
{ Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, TT, QJo, T9s, T8s, 76s }
They will have:
Flush 25%
Straight 55%
Set 5%
2pair 15%
We have 70% equity, I call turn

OTR, when the 7 comes I think all non J straights and two pair will check back here
So let's remove 76s, T8 and T9; they will now bet QJ ( I think for them to call with QJ OTF they would do this with a Qc or Jc ) SO that reduces the combos of QJ going to the river
which means we now lose to 54% of his river bet range and win against 46% of his range. Which makes it a pretty close decision here. His bet size OTR means we only need to be good 25% of the time so I think calling here is not a mistake although one might argue that even a QJ would check back the river in which case we are never good in that spot.

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