Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Cash Games /

FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river?

Old
Default
FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river? - Sat Aug 24, 2013, 12:53 PM
(#1)
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148


no reads on villain
couldnt he have a set, str8 or AT with the A of clubs? (OTT)

Last edited by Espada_Nu.4; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 12:56 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sat Aug 24, 2013, 02:09 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
No way I am folding river unless he overbets to a ridiculous amount.
But the value bet could indicate a lower flush or a straight, so we can't really do much but call.
 
Old
Default
Sun Aug 25, 2013, 06:38 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Espada,

The chance to flop a flush is 1 in 118 or <1%; so you can imagine the unlikely hood of two opponents flopping a flush which makes this hand sick!
With that said, I think I would bet the flop and turn bigger to protect from naked clubs when we are raised OTT I think this is a way ahead - way behind situation because given the board texture and our holding if they have a flush they have us beat. Against a limping range of {TT-22, AT-A2, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT, T9s-54s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-86s, J8s-T7s } they have 7 combos of flushes: Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc which all beat us.
There are 27 combos that would raise the turn: Flush, Straight, Two Pair, Set of Tens.
{ Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, TT, QJo, T9s, T8s, 76s }
They will have:
Flush 25%
Straight 55%
Set 5%
2pair 15%
We have 70% equity, I call turn

OTR, when the 7 comes I think all non J straights and two pair will check back here
So let's remove 76s, T8 and T9; they will now bet QJ ( I think for them to call with QJ OTF they would do this with a Qc or Jc ) SO that reduces the combos of QJ going to the river
which means we now lose to 54% of his river bet range and win against 46% of his range. Which makes it a pretty close decision here. His bet size OTR means we only need to be good 25% of the time so I think calling here is not a mistake although one might argue that even a QJ would check back the river in which case we are never good in that spot.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com