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45-Player play-chip stats

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45-Player play-chip stats - Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:22 PM
(#1)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Blame Slip_Me_Aces if you thought my statistical overloads ended when the site cancelled regular time, 27-player SNG games. Like a bad penny ---- I'm ba-ack.




Statistics for 100 games


All Games
7,918 ----- hands dealt
1,852 ----- hands played (23.39%)
0.707 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages
38.17% ----- of hand played
08.93% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 02
2nd place ----- 03
3rd place ----- 10
4th place ----- 06
5th place ----- 02
6th place ----- 07
7th place ----- 04

All winners --- 34

ITM percentage = 34.00%

gain to date = $69,290
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 69.29%




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,027 -- 004 -- 0,000 == 871 --- 871 --- AA
0,040 -- 008 -- 0,000 == 833 --- 833 --- KK
0,028 -- 010 -- 0,007 == 737 --- 622 --- QQ
0,023 -- 003 -- 0,014 == 885 --- 575 --- JJ
0,013 -- 016 -- 0,015 == 448 --- 295 --- TT
0,010 -- 005 -- 0,012 == 667 --- 370 --- AK suited
0,034 -- 007 -- 0,041 == 829 --- 415 --- AK off suit
0,010 -- 002 -- 0,015 == 833 --- 370 --- AQ suited
0,009 -- 003 -- 0,007 == 750 --- 474 --- AJ suited
0,014 -- 003 -- 0,008 == 824 --- 560 --- KQ suited

0,208 -- 061 -- 0,119 == 773 --- 536 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,031 --- AA ----- 07.99% ----- 00.39% of total hands
0,048 --- KK ----- 12.37%
0,045 --- QQ ----- 11.60%
0,040 --- JJ ----- 10.31%
0,044 --- TT ----- 11.34%
0,027 --- AK suited ----- 06.96%
0,082 --- AK off suit ----- 21.13%
0,027 --- AQ suited ----- 06.96%
0,019 --- AJ suited ----- 04.90%
0,025 --- KQ suited ----- 06.44%

0,388 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.90% of total hands


0,044 -- 012 -- 053 == 786 --- 404 --- AK combined ----- 28.09%




The numbers below represents 7,918 hands.

Number of hands played:

0.799 of 1,197 = (66.75%) BB stats:
0,364 of 1,211 = (30.06%) SB stats:
0,688 = (12.49%) other position:

(23.38%) = overall play rate

0,341 of 0,616 = (55.36%) showdown:
0,365 without:

I do believe the tendency to limp into the flop in play money action accounts for the high BB percentages. I'm thinking tourney play will be looser than ring, so I'm shooting for an overall playing rate between 20-25%. If I were in rings games, I would want an overall play rate between 18-23%, where the lower the rate, the better.

Tourneys have a lot more showdowns than ring. Ring players can always withdraw from a game, but tourneys eliminate players via the showdown. I am anticipating a rate between 50 - 55% as average. I'm classifying a rate of 56 - 60% as above average, 61 - 70% as excellent, and anything over 70% as superior, worthy of a professional player. Anyone with a contrary opinion, post your ranges and explain why.


Math alone supports 36 occurance per pocket pair in the 7,918 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 255 hands -
KK = once in 164 hands +
QQ = once in 175 hands +
JJ = once in 197 hands +
TT = once in 179 hands +


That's one under, and four above, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) I'm just starting, so I'll wait until I hit a thousand games to say if there is a bias. Remember me saying aces hit a lot while pocket tens seldom came in the 27-player games? Beware of wishes for the gods delight in granting them to fools.


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 24 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 72 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 62
Longest money streak = 3 games ($10,530)
Longest lossing streak = 7 games (3 times)

Average number of hands per game = 79
Average hands per hour = 79
Average game length = 1 hour and 00 minutes

Yeah, that number really surprised me. By the time I get the next 100 games played, I hope to list the average hand speeds by tables:

Last edited by Cairn Destop; Sat Aug 24, 2013 at 01:24 PM.. Reason: clearing out odd numbers
 
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Sat Aug 24, 2013, 01:36 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cairn Destop View Post
I'm thinking tourney play will be looser than ring, so I'm shooting for an overall playing rate between 20-25%. If I were in rings games, I would want an overall play rate between 18-23%, where the lower the rate, the better.

Tourneys have a lot more showdowns than ring. Ring players can always withdraw from a game, but tourneys eliminate players via the showdown.
Cairn,

I've played hundreds of these and I have found that I need to be tighter than ring games due to having more showdowns.

I'm running a trial of PT4 right now, so I can give you my exact numbers (have every hand I've played on my computer in this... which is about 3 years worth of games. A good number of hands in tourneys are from the 45's and the majority of cash hands are from zoom.

Tourney total: 15.26 VPIP 11.21 PFR

Tourney 45 man only: over 44k hands 11.84 VPIP, 8.18 PFR, avg finish is 6.34, net of over 1.16 million chips from 390 tourneys (mostly 2k buy-ins but some 300 buy-ins)

Cash: 25.89 VPIP, 18.38 PFR, win rate of 66.39BB/100 hands

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Aug 25, 2013, 09:03 AM
(#3)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
VPIP = voluntary put in pot.

I wish that statistic were available using the tab, but it isn't. I can come up with an approximation by adding my SB and Other Position stats and dividing by total hand. Since most of my BB are limps, it shouldn't be much higher. Think I did a check over a 100 game period during my 27-player games and it was around 80%. So here's my VPIP estimation. If you know how to calculate the VPIP using the data provided on the stat tab, I would be grateful.

364 (SB) - 688 (other) = 1,052 divided by hands, 7,918 = 13.29%

If I add 25% of the BB as an estimate of the times I called raises while in the BB:

1,052 + 200 (25% of BB) = 1,252 divided by hands = 15.81%

I'm thinking the 15.81% more realistic of a guess.



I envy you having all your hand history. As you know, the site doesn't provide that feature on the net side of its software.
 
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Mon Sep 30, 2013, 01:07 AM
(#4)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 200 games


All Games
15,695 ----- hands dealt
03,623 ----- hands played (23.08%)
01,378 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
38.03% ----- of hand played
08.78% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 02 + 02 = 04
2nd place ----- 03 + 03 = 06
3rd place ----- 10 + 02 = 12
4th place ----- 06 + 04 = 10
5th place ----- 02 + 05 = 07
6th place ----- 07 + 06 = 13
7th place ----- 04 + 06 = 10

All winners --- 34 + 28 = 62

ITM percentage = 31.00%

gain to date = $89,980
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 44.99%

Can you say major bummer? This latest 100-game block had to be the worse one I've done. Yes, I made a profit, so that's good. About the only thing positive to take out of this run. I had a 22-game run without a group one or two hand. Needless to say, my frustration level maxed. It has to get better. That's the one thing that has me attempting another hundred games.


Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall

percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,049 -- 008 -- 0,000 == 860 --- 860 --- AA
0,071 -- 016 -- 0,001 == 816 --- 807 --- KK
0,053 -- 016 -- 0,009 == 768 --- 679 --- QQ
0,038 -- 009 -- 0,020 == 809 --- 567 --- JJ
0,024 -- 024 -- 0,033 == 500 --- 296 --- TT
0,022 -- 011 -- 0,024 == 667 --- 386 --- AK suited
0,074 -- 011 -- 0,059 == 871 --- 514 --- AK off suit111443
0,022 -- 006 -- 0,030 == 786 --- 379 --- AQ suited
0,017 -- 007 -- 0,015 == 708 --- 436 --- AJ suited
0,024 -- 006 -- 0,016 == 800 --- 522 --- KQ suited

0,394 -- 114 -- 0,207 == 776 --- 551 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,057 --- AA ----- 07.97% ----- 00.36% of total hands
0,088 --- KK ----- 12.31%
0,078 --- QQ ----- 10.91%
0,067 --- JJ ----- 09.37%
0,081 --- TT ----- 11.33%
0,057 --- AK suited ----- 07.97%
0,144 --- AK off suit ----- 20.14%
0,058 --- AQ suited ----- 08.11%
0,039 --- AJ suited ----- 05.45%
0,046 --- KQ suited ----- 06.43%

0,715 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.56% of total hands


0,096 -- 022 -- 083 == 814 --- 478 --- AK combined ----- 28.11%




The numbers below represents 15,695 hands.

Number of hands played:

1,582 of 2,364 = (66.92%) BB stats:
0,712 of 2,382 = (29.89%) SB stats:
1,329 = (12.14%) other position:

(23.08%) = overall play rate

0,639 of 1,167 = (54.76%) showdown:
0,739 without:


Play money hands have a tendency to have a maniac or having players call the big blind just to see the flop. This results in an unusually high percentage of big blind hands going to the flop. I know the conventional wisdom is to fold in the small blind, but if my hand is group four or better, and the other players are limping, I'll call the big blind, hoping to see the flop. In the early rounds, from 45 players down to 27 players, this will usually result in me seeing the flop. I have a feeling players in cash games seldom allow players a cheap view of the blind. I'm finding as many as six players will see the flop when no other player raises, which explains how so many hit good hands post flop.

You might wonder why I don't raise by at least a one big-blind bet. The reason is simple. In those early rounds, raising results in one of two responses. The player either folds or goes all-in. If I'm going to face off a maniac, I want to know what the flop gives me first.




Math alone supports 72 instances per pocket pair in the 15,695 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 276 hands -
KK = once in 178 hands +
QQ = once in 202 hands +
JJ = once in 235 hands -
TT = once in 194 hands +


That's two under, and three above, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) I'm just starting, so I'll wait until I hit a thousand games to say if there is a bias. Remember me saying aces hit a lot while pocket tens seldom came in the 27-player games? Beware of wishes for the gods delight in granting them to fools. Pocket tens have hit with a greater frequency, but that translates into fewer winning hands.


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 48 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 142 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 62 - earliest
Breakeven point = gane # 76 - latest

Longest money streak = 3 games ($18,630) --- new record
Longest lossing streak = 14 games --- new record

Average number of hands per game = 79
Average hands per hour = 79
Average game length = 1 hour and 00 minutes
 
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Fri Dec 06, 2013, 05:51 PM
(#5)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Long time since my last posting. Some horrible runs had me taking time off to clear my head. However, I'm still playing and slogging through my objective of 2,000 games. Happy holidays to all.



Statistics for 300 games


All Games
23,571 ----- hands dealt
05,306 ----- hands played (22.51%)
02,000 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
37.69% ----- of hand played
08.49% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 04 + 02 = 006
2nd place ----- 06 + 02 = 008
3rd place ----- 12 + 04 = 016
4th place ----- 10 + 04 = 014
5th place ----- 07 + 07 = 014
6th place ----- 13 + 03 = 016
7th place ----- 10 + 09 = 019

All winners --- 62 + 31 = 093

ITM percentage = 31.00%

gain to date = $134,160
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 44.72%



My ITM percentages are remaining consistent, now all I need to do is make the upper four hit a little more often. As to hand percentages, I would like to get my winning percentage closer to 40% overall and 10% of the total hands.




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,077 -- 016 -- 0,000 == 828 --- 828 --- AA
0,107 -- 022 -- 0,002 == 829 --- 817 --- KK
0,079 -- 029 -- 0,011 == 731 --- 664 --- QQ
0,062 -- 020 -- 0,028 == 756 --- 564 --- JJ
0,041 -- 034 -- 0,053 == 547 --- 320 --- TT
0,035 -- 013 -- 0,036 == 729 --- 417 --- AK suited
0,100 -- 016 -- 0,095 == 862 --- 474 --- AK off suit
0,028 -- 008 -- 0,042 == 778 --- 359 --- AQ suited
0,022 -- 011 -- 0,026 == 667 --- 373--- AJ suited
0,033 -- 008 -- 0,024 == 805 --- 508 --- KQ suited

0,584 -- 177 -- 0,317 == 767 --- 542 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,093 --- AA ----- 08.63% ----- 00.39% of total hands
0,131 --- KK ----- 12.15%
0,119 --- QQ ----- 11.04%
0,110 --- JJ ----- 10.20%
0,128 --- TT ----- 11.89%
0,084 --- AK suited ----- 07.79%
0,211 --- AK off suit ----- 19.57%
0,078 --- AQ suited ----- 07.24%
0,059 --- AJ suited ----- 05.47%
0,065 --- KQ suited ----- 06.03%

1,078 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.57% of total hands


0,135 -- 029 -- 131 == 823 --- 458 --- AK combined ----- 27.37%



What can I say? Poker for chips is the most frustrating game. My group one and two hands have suffered major losses, and not to good play. I cannot tell you how many times I lost to runner-runner when the player holds trash. Imagine going all-in late in the game with pocket aces and the best hand against you is a ten-high off suited hand. My language turned quite colorful when the turn and river came up with tens.

If it wasn't for my success in live games, I would think I'm doing something wrong. Thing is, players will go to the river on inside straights, any two-paired hands, and any ace. These are suppose to be the kind of hands pocket queens, kings, aces, and straights should beat. Too many players at showdown almost guarantees a magic bullet for somebody other than the person who played properly.

I had a 15 game streak where I never received a group one or two hand. Needless to say, I had a hard time getting on track. Compound it with a poor performance by the top hands and all I can say is frustration. Regardless of my status at the turn, I lost at showdown. How does a 0-33 showdown record for that run sound? Only direction I can go is up. In spite of this, I came out a winner, so I must be doing something right.



The numbers below represents 23,571 hands.

Number of hands played:

2,342 of 3,553 = (65.92%) BB stats:
1,106 of 3,567 = (31.01%) SB stats:
1,856 = (11.28%) other position:

(22.50%) = overall play rate

0,930 of 1,722 = (54.01%) showdown:
1,083 without:







Math alone supports 107 pocket pairs for each pair in the 23,571 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 254 hands -
KK = once in 180 hands +
QQ = once in 199 hands +
JJ = once in 215 hands +
TT = once in 185 hands +


That's on under, and four above, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) Remember me saying aces hit a lot while pocket tens seldom came in the 27-player games? Beware of wishes for the gods delight in granting them to fools. Pocket tens have hit with a greater frequency, but that translates into fewer winning hands.


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 71 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 213 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 62 - earliest - (1)
Breakeven point = gane # 81 - latest --- new record - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($28,755) --- new record - (3)
Longest lossing streak = 14 games --- (2)

Average number of hands per game = 79
Average hands per hour = 79
Average game length = 1 hour and 00 minutes

The average hand and time seems to be constant. Those who intend trying for the 45-player games should allow a 2-hour window in case you run deeper than I do. If you can last past 120 hands, that usually means you made it past the bubble.

Last edited by Cairn Destop; Fri Dec 06, 2013 at 05:53 PM.. Reason: eliminating weird spaces
 
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Mon Feb 24, 2014, 05:21 PM
(#6)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 400 games


All Games
31,451 ----- hands dealt
07,131 ----- hands played (22.67%)
03,337 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
46.80% ----- of hand played
10.61% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop. This last hundred game block have pushed my winning percentages higher. I'm hoping the overall win percentage remains close to 50% of the total hands. That makes me think I've gotten better starting hands lately. The total percentage reflects either my improved selectivity or an improvement in my hitting flops. Let's be honest, you hold onto royalty and the flop's highest card is a seven, you'll consider folding a wise decision.





My Record
Ist place ----- 006 + 005 = 011
2nd place ----- 008 + 002 = 010
3rd place ----- 016 + 001 = 017
4th place ----- 014 + 006 = 020
5th place ----- 014 + 004 = 018
6th place ----- 016 + 009 = 025
7th place ----- 019 + 005 = 024

All winners --- 093 + 031 = 124

ITM percentage = 31.00%

gain to date = $153,638
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 38.41%



My ITM percentages remains a constant, now all I need to do is make the upper four hit a little more often. The lower payouts have dropped my ROI, but it is still a good percentage.




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,109 -- 021 -- 0,000 == 838 --- 838 --- AA
0,145 -- 032 -- 0,005 == 819 --- 797 --- KK
0,096 -- 034 -- 0,014 == 738 --- 667 --- QQ
0,080 -- 023 -- 0,040 == 777 --- 559 --- JJ
0,056 -- 037 -- 0,059 == 602 --- 368 --- TT
0,041 -- 016 -- 0,050 == 719 --- 383 --- AK suited
0,129 -- 027 -- 0,133 == 827 --- 446--- AK off suit
0,036 -- 017 -- 0,049 == 679 --- 353 --- AQ suited
0,030 -- 015 -- 0,040 == 667 --- 353--- AJ suited
0,041 -- 010 -- 0,038 == 804 --- 461 --- KQ suited

0,763 -- 232 -- 0,428 == 767 --- 536 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,130 --- AA ----- 09.14% ----- 00.41% of total hands
0,182 --- KK ----- 12.79%
0,144 --- QQ ----- 10.12%
0,143 --- JJ ----- 10.05%
0,152 --- TT ----- 10.68%
0,107 --- AK suited ----- 07.52%
0,289 --- AK off suit ----- 20.31%
0,102 --- AQ suited ----- 07.17%
0,085 --- AJ suited ----- 05.97%
0,089 --- KQ suited ----- 06.25%

1,423 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.52% of total hands


0,170 -- 043 -- 183 == 798 --- 429 --- AK combined ----- 27.83%



In the winter, it gets dark early. I have a choice between afternoon and early evening walks or poker. I love walking, which explains the long time between reports. Based on my luck with the cards, that's a good thing too. Yes, I was profitable, but the cards do such strange things.

Ace-King has been a killer. If it is suited, I will not get one card in suit. An offsuited hand guaranteed the ten as a high card. For most hands, the post flop betting convinced me to fold. When I saw the entire board, it proved folding a good option. Heavy betting in chip action encourages all-in frenzies, so I'll call to the flop and decide if it is worth playing. This explains why my winning percentage is well below the 45% average win rate for this hand.

Now the site has a high stakes play chip game. Just a million to enter, or $100K for the satellites. Not worth the effort as these are all hyper-turbo games where the blind goes up every three minutes. That's not a poker game based on skill. It's a game for the bingo luckmaster. I'm sure the reason behind this is to encourage the play money players to purchase chips. Good business idea, but the old hedgehog is super cheap.


The numbers below represents 31,451 hands.

Number of hands played:

3,162 of 4,757 = (66.47%) BB stats:
1,506 of 4,784 = (31.47%) SB stats:
2,463 = (07.83%) other position:

(22.67%) = overall play rate

1,256 of 2,321 = (54.11%) showdown:
2,081 without:







Math alone supports 142 occurrence per pocket pair in the 31,451 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 241 hands -
KK = once in 173 hands +
QQ = once in 219 hands
JJ = once in 220 hands
TT = once in 207 hands +


That's one under, two above and two in the dead zone, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) Remember me saying aces hit a lot while pocket tens seldom came in the 27-player games? Beware of wishes for the gods delight in granting them to fools. Pocket tens have hit with a greater frequency, and aces are hitting below expectations. That translates into fewer winning hands.


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 95 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 284 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 59 - earliest - (4) --- new record
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- new record - (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (2)

Average number of hands per game = 79
Average hands per hour = 79
Average game length = 1 hour and 00 minutes

The average hand and time seems to be constant. Those who intend trying for the 45-player games should allow a 2-hour window in case you run deeper than I do. If you can last past 120 hands, that usually means you made it past the bubble. Like most play money games, half the field is eliminated in as many hands. By Round three or four, the field is below 27 players. That's when the cream and luck masters shine. I cannot tell you how many times I see the hot player hit on the inside straight or hit the winning hand on the river. Just once I would love to hold Lady Luck's horseshoe.

Want to hear the one that sticks in my mind? Had a guy went all-in every hand. His best hand was 10 - 9 suited. The people calling him had group three or better hands. By the fifteenth hand, I reached final table. By hand twenty, I made the money. I finished in sixth place five hands later when my pocket nines ran up against his 7 - 4 off suited hand. He hit the straight on the turn.




I'm still going to inflict these stats on people here, but curious if any find this helpful or is anyone even reads this thread.
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 05:04 PM
(#7)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 500 games


All Games
40,212 ----- hands dealt
09,218 ----- hands played (22.92%)
04,188 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
45.43% ----- of hand played
10.41% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 011 + 02 = 13
2nd place ----- 010 + 07 = 17
3rd place ----- 017 + 04 = 21
4th place ----- 020 + 07 = 27
5th place ----- 018 + 05 = 23
6th place ----- 025 + 02 = 27
7th place ----- 024 + 10 = 34

All winners --- 124 + 37 = 161

ITM percentage = 32.20%

gain to date = $254,920
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 50.98%



My ITM percentages remains a near constant, now all I need to do is make the upper four hit a little more often. Don't think anyone would turn down my ROI. Than again, I know some here who claim to have ROI that exceed 200% and finish in the money every other game. Wish I were them.




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared

to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,142 -- 023 -- 0,001 == 861 --- 855 --- AA
0,185 -- 040 -- 0,005 == 822 --- 804 --- KK
0,120 -- 041 -- 0,016 == 745 --- 678 --- QQ
0,100 -- 029 -- 0,043 == 775 --- 581 --- JJ
0,074 -- 041 -- 0,072 == 643 --- 396 --- TT
0,054 -- 017 -- 0,060 == 761 --- 412 --- AK suited
0,166 -- 041 -- 0,175 == 802 --- 435--- AK off suit
0,054 -- 019 -- 0,058 == 740 --- 412 --- AQ suited
0,039 -- 018 -- 0,058 == 684 --- 339--- AJ suited
0,052 -- 014 -- 0,048 == 788 --- 456 --- KQ suited

0,986 -- 283 -- 0,536 == 777 --- 546 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,166 --- AA ----- 09.20% ----- 00.41% of total hands
0,230 --- KK ----- 12.74%
0,177 --- QQ ----- 09.81%
0,172 --- JJ ----- 09.53%
0,187 --- TT ----- 10.36%
0,131 --- AK suited ----- 07.26%
0,382 --- AK off suit ----- 21.16%
0,131 --- AQ suited ----- 07.26%
0,115 --- AJ suited ----- 06.37%
0,114 --- KQ suited ----- 06.32%

1,805 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.49% of total hands


0,220 -- 058 -- 235 == 791 --- 429 --- AK combined ----- 28.42%



Yes, I folded aces. Made a big bet, 10BB and got called by six players pre flop on the very first hand. Flop came up a three-card straight-flush and not in either of my two suits. The four players in front of me each went all-in. I folded. Good call on my part. Two players had the straight. One player had the flush. Winner had a set on the flop that became quads on the river.

We have all heard the advice regarding mini-cashing. Players who do this will eventually loose money. In these 45-player games seven make it to the money. My guess is that a mini-cash player goes for the bottom three slots, five through seven. I might even include number four. When your usual position is nine of nine on the final table with a stack that is less than one-third of player eight of nine, I'm not too sure that's true. I'm busting my hump making it to the money and in those games where I do get past the bubble, I'm still short stacked with less than half my nearest competition. Now I do admit to going overly aggressive post bubble, but why not? If I can double-up before the next round of ante betting, I have a chance of going higher.

As I remember the SNG courses, it recommends playing tight early and opening your range as the blinds advance. The criteria for aggression being a player's M-Factor, BB coverage. When it is below five, playing almost every hand is a necessity. My M-Factor hasn't surpassed 8 more than a half dozen times in all my games. I just find it hard justifying playing group eight hands as if I have pocket rockets. Why is it you seem to run into streaks of a specific starting hand? I didn't mind it when the hand in question was pocket kings. (twenty-five wins and zero losses or folds in twelve games.) Than there is the trashy hands, like deuce-trey suited that has followed me every BB. At least that's my perception, which I'm sure is wrong. A tracking program would resolve that concern.

Speaking of tracking programs, I have never used one. I did use Tournament Indicator for its 48-hour trial period before Black Friday. Just not enough time to determine if the information was valuable. Since chip play on the net version doesn't allow hand histories, even if I wanted to test such programs, I couldn't. Thank you DOJ.

The lack of hand histories and tracking programs doesn't prevent one from acquiring statistical data. Check out the following information provided by the site. It isn't as detailed as our purest demand, and it also requires (shudder) work from the player, but it does give some assistance. There will be differences between cash and chip action. For example, I kept a record regarding how many times I limped into the flop when in the BB for a hundred games. My stats showed something between 80% - 90% were limps. If I can believe what players say about cash action, that number is reversed. I'll do another survey over this next hundred games and see how many BB situations are limps.

Though I would love some opposing views regarding these numbers, I'm thinking them reasonable for my type of game. Tourneys have a tight and loose stage. Ring games will encourage tight play at all times. That one difference will affect hand statistics by having the percentages higher than the 20% noted by cash players, especially if most BB are limps. When you go deep, your numbers will be affected. I've gone through the first three rounds many times with my seeing flop percentage at zero for the SB and other positions while the BB is at 100%. Like I said, lots of limping. Deeper you go, the more often you're forced to defend the blinds, thus a higher percentage of SB played. Can remember one game I went ITM without playing one SB and ended playing almost 40& since I came in third that game.



The numbers below represents 40,212 hands.

Number of hands played:

4,059 of 6,099 = (66.55%) BB stats:
1,960 of 6,129 = (31.98%) SB stats:
3,199 = (11.43%) other position:

(22.92%) = overall play rate

1,618 of 2,997 = (53.99%) showdown:
2,570 without:







Math alone supports 181 occurrence per pocket pair in the 40,212 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 242 hands -
KK = once in 174 hands +
QQ = once in 227 hands -
JJ = once in 233 hands -
TT = once in 215 hands +


That's three under, two above and none in the dead zone, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) Remember me saying aces hit a lot while pocket tens seldom came in the 27-player games? Beware of wishes for the gods delight in granting them to fools. Pocket tens have hit with a greater frequency, and aces are hitting below expectations. That translates into fewer winning hands.


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 121 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 362 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 57 - earliest - (5) --- new record
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (2)

Average number of hands per game = 79
Average hands per hour = 79
Average game length = 1 hour and 00 minutes

The average hand and time seems to be constant. Those who intend trying for the 45-player games should allow a 2-hour window in case you run deeper than I do. If you can last past 120 hands, that usually means you made it past the bubble. Like most play money games, half the field is eliminated in as many hands. By Round three or four, the field is below 27 players. That's when the cream and luck masters shine. I cannot tell you how many times I see the hot player hit on the inside straight or hit the winning hand on the river. Just once I would love to hold Lady Luck's horseshoe.

Want to hear the one that sticks in my mind? Had a guy went all-in every hand. His best hand was 10 - 9 suited. The people calling him had group three or better hands. By the fifteenth hand, I reached final table. By hand twenty, I made the money. I finished in sixth place five hands later when my pocket nines ran up against his 7 - 4 off suited hand. He hit the straight on the turn.
 
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Sun Jun 22, 2014, 02:44 PM
(#8)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 600 games


All Games
48,087 ----- hands dealt
11,041 ----- hands played (22.96%)
04,353 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
39.43% ----- of hand played
09.05% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.

What can I say? My numbers took a heavy downward spiral this last 100-game block. Some of this is related to the luck of the draw. I'm suspecting much is attributed to my hand selection range. Need to work on those winning percentages. Want the percentage of hands played to be over 40 and the percentage of total hands to exceed 10 percent.



My Record
Ist place ----- 013 + 03 = 16
2nd place ----- 017 + 05 = 22
3rd place ----- 021 + 04 = 25
4th place ----- 027 + 03 = 30
5th place ----- 023 + 05 = 28
6th place ----- 027 + 06 = 33
7th place ----- 034 + 08 = 42

All winners --- 162 + 34 = 196

ITM percentage = 32.67%

gain to date = $322,995
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 53.83%


Anyone want to find fault with an ROI over 50? I wanted to present the following stats after 500 games and then forgot. Will show them now, 600 games, and every 500 games. Next report will be at the 1,000 game mark. Rounding might affect the total percentage, but I'm encouraged by these stats.

ITM ---- 196
FT ----- 255 (1st through 9th) ---- 42.50%
TWO ---- 224 (10th through 18th) -- 37.33%
THREE -- 084 (19th through 27th) -- 14.00%
FOUR --- 024 (28th through 36th) -- 04.00%
FIVE --- 013 (37th through 45th) -- 02.17%





Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,170 -- 025 -- 0,001 == 872 --- 867 --- AA
0,212 -- 047 -- 0,006 == 819 --- 800 --- KK
0,150 -- 053 -- 0,017 == 739 --- 682 --- QQ
0,127 -- 034 -- 0,047 == 789 --- 611 --- JJ
0,093 -- 047 -- 0,082 == 664 --- 419 --- TT
0,065 -- 020 -- 0,069 == 765 --- 422 --- AK suited
0,193 -- 051 -- 0,204 == 791 --- 431--- AK off suit
0,059 -- 026 -- 0,064 == 694 --- 396 --- AQ suited
0,048 -- 021 -- 0,069 == 696 --- 348--- AJ suited
0,060 -- 016 -- 0,062 == 789 --- 435 --- KQ suited

1,177 -- 340 -- 0,621 == 776 --- 551 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,196 --- AA ----- 09.17% ----- 00.41% of total hands
0,265 --- KK ----- 12.39%
0,220 --- QQ ----- 10.29%
0,208 --- JJ ----- 09.73%
0,222 --- TT ----- 10.38%
0,154 --- AK suited ----- 07.20%
0,448 --- AK off suit ----- 20.95%
0,149 --- AQ suited ----- 06.97%
0,138 --- AJ suited ----- 06.45%
0,138 --- KQ suited ----- 06.45%

2,138 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.44% of total hands


0,258 -- 071 -- 273 == 784 --- 429 --- AK combined ----- 28.16%

How would you like to have the top ten showing a seventy wins, zero losses and fifteen folds? In spite of that, I wasn't finishing well. The take from these hands was always insufficient to keep me going. Than the other shoe fell. Zero wins, twenty-seven losses, and sixteen folds. I was spelling frustration with a capital F. Always running into the slightly better hand.




The numbers below represents 48,087 hands.

Number of hands played:

4,873 of 7,316 = (66.61%) BB stats:
2,328 of 7,337 = (31.73%) SB stats:
3,616 = (11.49%) other position:

(22.96%) = overall play rate

1,936 of 3,616 = (53.54%) showdown:
3,034 without:

I said I would do a limping report for this 100 games. I limped into the flop from the BB position 630 times. That translates to 77 percent of the hands played and 52 percent of the total BB played. I'm thinking of raising my bet to 3BB if I get playable BB. If I get just a quarter of those hands, or reduce the number of players by half, it will be worth the extra money risked.





Math alone supports 218 occurrence per pocket pair in the 48,087 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 262 hands -
KK = once in 181 hands +
QQ = once in 219 hands
JJ = once in 232 hands -
TT = once in 217 hands


That's two under, one above and two in the dead zone, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226)


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 145 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 433 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 55 - earliest - (6) --- new record
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (2)
 
Old
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Tue Aug 12, 2014, 11:44 AM
(#9)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 700 games


All Games
55,570 ----- hands dealt
12,709 ----- hands played (22.87%)
05,646 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
44.43% ----- of hand played
10.16% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 016 + 03 = 19
2nd place ----- 022 + 01 = 23
3rd place ----- 025 + 06 = 31
4th place ----- 030 + 02 = 32
5th place ----- 028 + 06 = 34
6th place ----- 033 + 06 = 39
7th place ----- 042 + 03 = 45

All winners --- 196 + 27 = 223

ITM percentage = 31.86%

gain to date = $355,025
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 50.72%


I hit the $3 million mark for the first time in game number 670. A loosing streak had me fall below that
benchmark. Hit it again in game 675 and 684. Fell below that total and have not recovered. Ended the
hundred game block with a thirteen game losing streak.

My overall performance for 700 games:

Final table = 293 times
18th - 10th = 264 times
27th - 19th = 095 times
36th - 28th = 031 times
45th - 29th = 017 times




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning
percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,193 -- 028 -- 0,001 == 873 --- 869 --- AA
0,238 -- 056 -- 0,007 == 810 --- 791 --- KK
0,180 -- 065 -- 0,019 == 735 --- 682 --- QQ
0,537 -- 039 -- 0,052 == 797 --- 627 --- JJ
0,107 -- 058 -- 0,096 == 648 --- 410 --- TT
0,080 -- 023 -- 0,078 == 777 --- 442 --- AK suited
0,218 -- 056 -- 0,241 == 796 --- 423--- AK off suit
0,065 -- 028 -- 0,069 == 699 --- 401 --- AQ suited
0,054 -- 022 -- 0,088 == 711 --- 329--- AJ suited
0,068 -- 021 -- 0,073 == 764 --- 420 --- KQ suited

1,356 -- 396 -- 0,724 == 774 --- 548 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,222 --- AA ----- 08.97% ----- 00.40% of total hands
0,301 --- KK ----- 12.16%
0,264 --- QQ ----- 10.66%
0,244 --- JJ ----- 09.85%
0,261 --- TT ----- 10.54%
0,181 --- AK suited ----- 07.31%
0,515 --- AK off suit ----- 20.80%
0,162 --- AQ suited ----- 06.54%
0,164 --- AJ suited ----- 06.62%
0,162 --- KQ suited ----- 06.54%

2,476 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.46% of total hands


0,298 -- 079 -- 319 == 790 --- 428 --- AK combined ----- 28.11%

Pocket queens were a curse. Each time I got a third one on the flop, and lost each time to something on
the turn or river. It didn't matter how I bet, at least five players called or raised my bets. I was way
ahead post flop with the other players having less than six viable outs to beat me. Problem was, with
five players in the hand, somebody had to hit. After the sixth queen set loosing, I took a week off for
the sake of my sanity. My return didn't help. The streak continues. When the hundred game block ended,
my pocket ladies turn queen set had a streak of ten losses and two folds. Would have lost both folds as
well when the board became a four-card flush and several players made heavy bids, which I didn't call.
Only smart thing I've done during this run.




The numbers below represents 55,570 hands.

Number of hands played:

5,624 of 8,440 = (66.64%) BB stats:
2,645 of 8,466 = (31.24%) SB stats:
4,440 = (11.48%) other position:

(22.87%) = overall play rate

2,210 of 4,156 = (53.18%) showdown:
3,436 without:






Math alone supports 251 occurrence per pocket pair in the 55,570 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 251 hands -
KK = once in 184 hands +
QQ = once in 211 hands +
JJ = once in 228 hands -
TT = once in 213 hands +


That's two under, three above , which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either

side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226)


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 167 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 501 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 55 - earliest - (6)
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (2) --- current 13 games
 
Old
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Sun Oct 26, 2014, 11:05 PM
(#10)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 800 games


All Games
63,653 ----- hands dealt
14,668 ----- hands played (23.04%)
06,460 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
44.04% ----- of hand played
10.15% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 019 + 05 = 024
2nd place ----- 023 + 04 = 027
3rd place ----- 031 + 06 = 037
4th place ----- 032 + 02 = 034
5th place ----- 034 + 06 = 040
6th place ----- 039 + 05 = 044
7th place ----- 045 + 06 = 051

All winners --- 223 + 34 = 257

ITM percentage = 32.13%

gain to date = $448,615
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 56.08%


I have no idea how long I'll be playing poker here on PokerStars. There is a new game, Spin and Win, that is the equivalent of the slot machine. Like most of the chip action tourneys, this one is a hyper styled game for three players and with a prize chosen at random. This leaves just the 45-player SNG that is played at standard speed. If that game goes, I'll return if Americans can play for cash. Even then, I'll have to rethink my online poker. Hyper and Super-Hyper are nothing more than crap shoots. If you don't get strong hands early and often, you cannot play.






Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.



0,217 -- 035 -- 0,001 == 861 --- 858 --- AA
0,274 -- 062 -- 0,008 == 815 --- 797 --- KK
0,206 -- 073 -- 0,020 == 738 --- 689 --- QQ
0,176 -- 047 -- 0,057 == 789 --- 629 --- JJ
0,122 -- 064 -- 0,111 == 656 --- 411 --- TT
0,092 -- 028 -- 0,088 == 767 --- 442 --- AK suited
0,249 -- 065 -- 0,263 == 793 --- 432--- AK off suit
0,076 -- 030 -- 0,082 == 717 --- 404 --- AQ suited
0,066 -- 027 -- 0,103 == 710 --- 337--- AJ suited
0,079 -- 022 -- 0,084 == 782 --- 427 --- KQ suited

1,557 -- 453 -- 0,817 == 775 --- 551 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,253 --- AA ----- 08.95% ----- 00.40% of total hands
0,344 --- KK ----- 12.17%
0,299 --- QQ ----- 10.58%
0,280 --- JJ ----- 09.90%
0,297 --- TT ----- 10.51%
0,208 --- AK suited ----- 07.36%
0,577 --- AK off suit ----- 20.41%
0,188 --- AQ suited ----- 06.65%
0,196 --- AJ suited ----- 06.93%
0,185 --- KQ suited ----- 06.54%

2,857 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.49% of total hands


0,341 -- 093 -- 351 == 786 --- 434 --- AK combined ----- 27.77%




Pocket queens were a curse. Each time I got a third one on the flop, I've lost each time to something on the turn or river. The streak continues. When the hundred game block ended, my pocket ladies turn queen set had a streak of seventeen consecutive losses. Without the queen-set curse, the queens have done well. It has to end, right? And it has in game 755 after losing nineteen straight queen sets.

The last report contained a fat-fingered typo for pocket jacks. That is now corrected.




The numbers below represents hands.

Number of hands played:

6,488 of 9,706 = (66.85%) BB stats:
3,047 of 9,722 = (31.34%) SB stats:
5,133 = (11.61%) other position:

(23.04%) = overall play rate

2,569 of 4,796 = (53.57%) showdown:
3,891 without:






Math alone supports 287 occurance per pocket pair in the 63,653 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 252 hands -
KK = once in 185 hands +
QQ = once in 213 hands
JJ = once in 228 hands -
TT = once in 215 hands +


That's two under, two above, and one on target, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result.

(216 - 226)


Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 191 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 573 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 53 - earliest - (8) --- new record
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (twice)
 
Old
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Mon Oct 27, 2014, 02:11 AM
(#11)
JohhnyJacks's Avatar
Since: Oct 2014
Posts: 2
How do you track stats like this?
 
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Mon Oct 27, 2014, 06:48 PM
(#12)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
I keep a sheet of paper divided into ten rows and three columns. The rows are the ten hands for group one and two hands. The columns are labeled win, lose, fold. After 100 games, I transfer the data to an Excel spreadsheet that does all the math for me.

As to the other numbers, hands played, showdown, and no showdown, those numbers can be found on the stat tab at the table. Once my game is done, I'll record the information on my spreadsheet. The totals are kept by the computer.

It took me about an hour to set up the information, but once done, the work per game is less than a minute to record. Same for the group one and two hands. I used Word, made a table, landscaped the page, and print it out before I start each hundred game block. I then put a tic mark in the appropriate column whenever I get that hand. Since I'm only following ten hands, it isn't too hard. I also have found that I can record a hundred games on one sheet.

No special software program is used.
 
Old
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Mon Oct 27, 2014, 07:16 PM
(#13)
JohhnyJacks's Avatar
Since: Oct 2014
Posts: 2
Thanks im gonna try it out. Really want to see how solid my game is and where to make improvements you know.
 
Old
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Sat Jan 17, 2015, 11:15 PM
(#14)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 900 games


All Games
71,779 ----- hands dealt
16,777 ----- hands played (23.37%)
07,354 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
43.83% ----- of hand played
10.25% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 024 + 06 = 030
2nd place ----- 027 + 04 = 031
3rd place ----- 037 + 03 = 040
4th place ----- 034 + 05 = 039
5th place ----- 040 + 07 = 047
6th place ----- 044 + 03 = 047
7th place ----- 051 + 04 = 055

All winners --- 257 + 32 = 289

ITM percentage = 32.11%

gain to date = $542,205
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 60.25%




Hedgehog must be the worse poker player alive. There are a profusion of online poker sites through Facebook. Each of these sites offers winning percentages for players that can be viewed. I spent a month on several of these sites and made it my mission to check every player that sat at my table who played at least 5,000 hands. Player's winning percentages ranged from 25 to 60 percent. My rate? It's hovered around the seven percent mark. Are other players really having winning percentages that high on a consistent bases? Is it the style of play or do they get that many great hands?




Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,258 -- 037 -- 0,001 == 875 --- 872 --- AA
0,304 -- 071 -- 0,010 == 811 --- 790 --- KK
0,230 -- 084 -- 0,023 == 732 --- 682 --- QQ
0,195 -- 055 -- 0,064 == 780 --- 621 --- JJ
0,138 -- 069 -- 0,129 == 667 --- 411 --- TT
0,102 -- 032 -- 0,101 == 761 --- 434 --- AK suited
0,282 -- 075 -- 0,293 == 790 --- 434--- AK off suit
0,090 -- 033 -- 0,088 == 732 --- 427 --- AQ suited
0,074 -- 029 -- 0,123 == 718 --- 327--- AJ suited
0,092 -- 024 -- 0,090 == 793 --- 447 --- KQ suited

1,765 -- 509-- 0,922 == 776 --- 552 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,296 --- AA ----- 09.26% ----- 00.41% of total hands
0,385 --- KK ----- 12.05%
0,337 --- QQ ----- 10.54%
0,314 --- JJ ----- 09.82%
0,336 --- TT ----- 10.51%
0,235 --- AK suited ----- 07.35%
0,650 --- AK off suit ----- 20.34%
0,211 --- AQ suited ----- 06.60%
0,226 --- AJ suited ----- 07.07%
0,206 --- KQ suited ----- 06.45%

3,196 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.45% of total hands


0,384 -- 107 -- 394 == 782 --- 434 --- AK combined ----- 27.69%

It has been a longer than usual time playing this latest hundred game batch. I've been attending to my second hobby, story writing, thanks to NANOWRIMO. (NAtional NOvel WRIting MOnth) Though I had fifteen games remaining on October 31, I spent all of November on my next story, which inspired still another one. December went by without one poker game. Those curious about my stories, which are online and free to viewing, can either contact me or google my handle, Cairn Destop. (Shameless plug.)

https://www.fanfiction.net/u/571479/Cairn-Destop


The numbers below represents hands.

Number of hands played:

7,362 of 11,035 = (66.71%) BB stats:
3,531 of 11,039 = (31.99%) SB stats:
5,884 = (11.84%) other position:



2,948 of 5,484 = (53.76%) showdown:
4,406 without:






Math alone supports 325 occurrence per pocket pair in the 71,779 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 243 hands -
KK = once in 187 hands +
QQ = once in 213 hands +
JJ = once in 229 hands -
TT = once in 213 hands +


That's two under, and three above, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226) I've been looking over my numbers and either the math is wrong or my card luck is a lot better than imagined.

Suited (Ace - King/Queen/Jack and King - Queen) should be 216 times per math.
Non-Suited (Ace - King) should be 647 times per math.

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 53 - earliest - (8)
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 14 games --- (twice)


The next report represents the halfway mark. I sure miss cheque action.
 
Old
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Mon May 04, 2015, 12:17 PM
(#15)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 1,000 games


All Games
79,151 ----- hands dealt
18,408 ----- hands played (23.26%)
07,944 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
43.16% ----- of hand played
10.04% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 030 + 02 = 032
2nd place ----- 031 + 01 = 032
3rd place ----- 040 + 03 = 043
4th place ----- 039 + 07 = 046
5th place ----- 047 + 07 = 054
6th place ----- 047 + 03 = 050
7th place ----- 055 + 03 = 058

All winners --- 289 + 26 = 315

ITM percentage = 31.50%

gain to date = $553,580
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 55.36%







Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,285 -- 044 -- 0,001 == 866 --- 864 --- AA
0,328 -- 080 -- 0,010 == 804 --- 785 --- KK
0,254 -- 088 -- 0,024 == 743 --- 694 --- QQ
0,208 -- 066 -- 0,076 == 759 --- 594 --- JJ
0,149 -- 075 -- 0,151 == 665 --- 397 --- TT
0,111 -- 037 -- 0,107 == 750 --- 435 --- AK suited
0,303 -- 086 -- 0,320 == 779 --- 427--- AK off suit
0,099 -- 038 -- 0,099 == 723 --- 419 --- AQ suited
0,081 -- 033 -- 0,131 == 711 --- 331--- AJ suited
0,097 -- 028 -- 0,103 == 776 --- 425 --- KQ suited

1,915 -- 575-- 1,022 == 769 --- 545 --- Group One and Two Totals




Number of hands
0,330 --- AA ----- 09.40% ----- 00.42% of total hands
0,418 --- KK ----- 11.90%
0,366 --- QQ ----- 10.42%
0,350 --- JJ ----- 09.97%
0,375 --- TT ----- 10.68%
0,255 --- AK suited ----- 07.26%
0,709 --- AK off suit ----- 20.19%
0,236 --- AQ suited ----- 06.72%
0,245 --- AJ suited ----- 06.98%
0,228 --- KQ suited ----- 06.49%

3,512 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.44% of total hands


0,414 -- 123 -- 427 == 771 --- 429 --- AK combined ----- 27.45%



And with this report, I've reached the halfway point. I'll drop a lot of the additional stats until the end. It has been a grind, but I'm thinking these numbers are a fair indication of the site's random number generator. On some I'm doing better than average and others I'm below. Par for any sample.

There is a saying about pride going before the fall. I had my worse loosing streak this block. I had the misfortune to snap defeat from the very jaws of victory. The river was no friend of mine this time. My language became quite colorful during that time period. Wish I had a winning streak that extended just half as long.

A check of my winning standings shows I'm fairly even. Think that's because I relax once past the bubble. I have got to knuckle down and fight for every spot above seventh. Making the money is good, but I need to try harder for those top three positions. That means no more chasing straights or flushes to the river. Better to lose with a good hand than hope for a river blessing. Such actions might result in more blind-outs at seventh than I like.



The numbers below represents hands.

Number of hands played:

8,057 of 12,146 = (66.33%) BB stats:
3,875 of 12,152 = (31.89%) SB stats:
6,476 = (11.81%) other position:



3,243 of 6,029 = (53.79%) showdown:
4,701 without:

If you look below, you'll notice I had a sixteen game losing streak. Want to see what such a loosing streak is like? Here are the statistics for that sixteen game streak. I wish I was not exaggerating these numbers.

Number of hands played: 472

34 of 58 = (58.62%) BB stats:
18 of 57 = (31.57%) SB stats:
39 = other position

00 of 24 = showdown:
00 without:




Math alone supports 357 occurrence per pocket pair in the 79,151 hands played to date. Here are my actual results.

AA = once in 240 hands -
KK = once in 190 hands +
QQ = once in 217 hands +
JJ = once in 227 hands -
TT = once in 212 hands +


That's two under, and three above, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226)





YOU WERE WARNED --- prepare for statistical overload:

Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 53 - earliest - (8)
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 16 games --- (10) --- NEW RECORD

100-game block records

Best 100-game block --- $101,282 --- (5)
Worse 100-game block -- $011,375 --- (10)

Most hands --- 8,761 (5)
Fewest hands - 7,372 (10)

Best showdown --- 359 of 640 -- (6)
Worse showdown -- 274 of 540 -- (5)

Most no showdown ---- 707 (4)
Fewest no showdown -- 295 (10)

Where I finished:

01 = 32 --- 10 = 62 --- 19 = 16 --- 28 = 08 --- 37 = 05
02 = 32 --- 11 = 44 --- 20 = 22 --- 29 = 06 --- 38 = 09
03 = 43 --- 12 = 54 --- 21 = 22 --- 30 = 06 --- 39 = 03
04 = 46 --- 13 = 44 --- 22 = 21 --- 31 = 06 --- 40 = 03
05 = 54 --- 14 = 36 --- 23 = 16 --- 32 = 07 --- 41 = 00
06 = 50 --- 15 = 40 --- 24 = 13 --- 33 = 06 --- 42 = 00
07 = 58 --- 16 = 30 --- 25 = 07 --- 34 = 03 --- 43 = 00
08 = 51 --- 17 = 40 --- 26 = 07 --- 35 = 06 --- 44 = 01
09 = 56 --- 18 = 25 --- 27 = 07 --- 36 = 02 --- 45 = 01
 
Old
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Mon May 04, 2015, 12:46 PM
(#16)
FLsnookman's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 565
Wow Cairn!! Congrats on finishing and what an amazing job of information gathering. Also to ITM over 30% of the time is a very awesome achievement. Congrats!
 
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Tue May 05, 2015, 12:51 PM
(#17)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
I'm halfway through the two thousand games and feeling good. I had to also post those stats on my losing streak. It shows we all can have a very rough patch in this game. Overall, I'm thinking the cards have been above average for me, but not by much. Without the ability to acquire hand history in the dot-net version, I'm somewhat hindered for personal reviewing. Oh how I miss the days of cash action.
 
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Mon Jul 13, 2015, 10:07 PM
(#18)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Statistics for 1,100 games


All Games
86,151 ----- hands dealt
19,987 ----- hands played (23.20%)
08,538 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages

Average
42.72% ----- of hand played
09.91% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop.





My Record
Ist place ----- 032 + 03 = 035
2nd place ----- 032 + 04 = 036
3rd place ----- 043 + 04 = 047
4th place ----- 046 + 03 = 049
5th place ----- 054 + 03 = 057
6th place ----- 050 + 07 = 057
7th place ----- 058 + 13 = 071

All winners --- 315 + 37 = 352

ITM percentage = 32.00%

gain to date = $615,985
Based on my net gain, my ROI = 56.00%







Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall

percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,316 -- 046 -- 0,001 == 873 --- 871 --- AA
0,362 -- 086 -- 0,011 == 808 --- 789 --- KK
0,282 -- 096 -- 0,024 == 746 --- 701 --- QQ
0,219 -- 074 -- 0,082 == 747 --- 584 --- JJ
0,158 -- 077 -- 0,159 == 672 --- 401 --- TT
0,125 -- 040 -- 0,117 == 758 --- 443 --- AK suited
0,325 -- 098 -- 0,348 == 768 --- 422--- AK off suit
0,116 -- 043 -- 0,105 == 730 --- 439 --- AQ suited
0,087 -- 036 -- 0,141 == 707 --- 330--- AJ suited
0,102 -- 029 -- 0,111 == 779 --- 421 --- KQ suited

2,092 -- 625-- 1,099 == 770 --- 548 --- Group One and Two Totals

In another thread, two of this site's more respected players, (PlasticPearl and JWK24), listed the anticipated odds for some of these hands. Needless to say, I'm copying them here. Again, needless to say, my numbers are laughable. Another high ranking player, effsea, also provided his record for 7-2 off suited - 80% winner. These stats are based on more than 150K hands. Damn, I'm sucking sewer water big, big time.

AA = 85%
KK = 81%
QQ = 79%
JJ = 77%
TT = 75%

AK = 67% - suited
AK = 65% - unsuited

AQ = 66%


Number of hands
0,363 --- AA ----- 09.51% ----- 00.42% of total hands
0,459 --- KK ----- 12.03%
0,402 --- QQ ----- 10.53%
0,375 --- JJ ----- 09.83%
0,394 --- TT ----- 10.32%
0,282 --- AK suited ----- 07.39%
0,771 --- AK off suit ----- 20.20%
0,264 --- AQ suited ----- 06.92%
0,264 --- AJ suited ----- 06.92%
0,242 --- KQ suited ----- 06.34%

3,816 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.42% of total hands


0,450 -- 138 -- 465 == 765 --- 427 --- AK combined ----- 27.59%



At least the second half has started off with a positive note. I set a new record, reaching the breakeven point earlier than any of the other hundred game sets. Makes playing a challenge. Do wish we Americans could play cash. Perchance to dream.

I'm still hoping either the site, a recognized poker pro, or somebody conversant with the mathematical statistics and probabilities of poker sees these numbers. Sure would like to hear from a knowledgeable source. My personal view? To paraphrase the Hunger Games, the odds seem to be ever in my favor. Watch, my unbridled optimism will meet reality in the next hundred game set.

Remember how important it is to make notes on players? I do. Ran into a player I noted as a golden ace man. Give him an ace and he goes all-in pre flop every time. I'm the BB and get pocket jacks. This guy is under the gun and goes all-in. Everyone folds, but I call him. My note was spot-on, he had ace - six off suited. Figured if no ace, I had him. The devil's number came up as the flop, 6 - 6 - 6. One hand and a very early out for me.

People claim this is a game of skill, not luck. I disagree. If the deal is random, any card in the deck has an opportunity to hit the board. In one game, this one player had Lady Luck's golden horseshoe. First five consecutive hands he hit quads when three of his cards hit the board. We were down to FT before hand ten and I got ITM on hand twenty-one. I get pocket kings and bet heavy, Mr Lucky called. Flop gives me a set and I go all-in and Mr Lucky calls. He has 5-7 suited and flop was King - four - eight rainbow, with none in Mr Lucky's suit. We all know what they call anyone drawing to the inside straight. River hit for a six and my set lost to his straight. Yeah, I recorded the hand after busting. Remember, the dot-net doesn't allow players to get hand histories.


The numbers below represents hands.

Number of hands played:

8,786 of 13,249 = (66.31%) BB stats:
4,204 of 13,236 = (31.76%) SB stats:
6,997 = (11.73%) other position:



3,503 of 6,538 = (53.58%) showdown:
5,035 without:






Math alone supports 388 occurrence per pocket pair in the 86,151 hands played to date. Here are my actual results. All results rounded up since you cannot have a fraction of a hand.

AA = once in 238 hands -
KK = once in 188 hands +
QQ = once in 215 hands +
JJ = once in 230 hands -
TT = once in 219 hands


That's two under, two above, and one in range, which I'm defining as +/- 5 hands. This represents a 2.5% range on either side of the expected 221 result. (216 - 226)


Hundred-game Records:

Breakeven point = game # 51 - earliest - (11) --- NEW RECORD
Breakeven point = game # 81 - latest - (3)

Longest money streak = 4 games ($44,145) --- (4)
Longest losing streak = 16 games --- (10)

Best 100-game block --- $162,405 --- (11) --- NEW RECORD
Worse 100-game block -- $011,375 --- (10)

Most hands --- 8,761 (5)
Fewest hands - 7,000 (11) --- NEW RECORD

Best showdown --- 359 of 640 -- (8)
Worse showdown -- 274 of 540 -- (7)

Most no showdown ---- 707 (4)
Fewest no showdown -- 295 (10)
 
Old
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Mon Jul 27, 2015, 12:39 PM
(#19)
98675309's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 79
Great thread
keep em coming
 
Old
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Mon Aug 03, 2015, 07:33 PM
(#20)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
I will indeed be plugging along with this collection of data. How I miss having a chance to check over my hand histories. Pretty sure I would be reviewing enough hands to wear out that replay program.


And on a personal note:

Over a thousand views. I'm surprised and quite pleased. Hope those looking in realize their rotten streaks are not that unusual and to keep pushing through those dips in your game. To anyone who came here wondering just how good the random number generator is, hope this provides the evidence you need to see how honest a game is played here. And to those inspired to do a similar study with their particular game, be it ring, zoom, or tourney, don't be shy, post your results.
 

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