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$1.50 Turbo Fifty/50 Bubble

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$1.50 Turbo Fifty/50 Bubble - Mon Aug 26, 2013, 01:02 PM
(#1)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139


This was a fold right? Each hand he decided to play he would open shove.

Thanks for the analysis!
Affluenza.

Last edited by Affluenza; Mon Aug 26, 2013 at 03:42 PM..
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 01:14 PM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
That was a fold, well played

It's his play to always shove, he's got everybody covered
It's not worth putting your tournament life in danger, especially when there's 2 players about to bust and only one is needed.

The next 2 hands he can bust or Villain_3 is next

The goal is to finish in the top 5
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 02:58 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,816
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Hi Affluenza!

IMO, with two short stacks that are being blinded out, this is a clear fold for anything less than an ultra-premium made hand and here's why.

If I fold, I'm guaranteed basically $1.39 + (2650/100)* 4 cents, which is $2.45.

If I take a risk and play, even up against 2 random hands, I only win 49% of the time. In that 49%, I end up with $3.66. The other times, I LOSE $1.50 25% of the time and get $1.39 25%, which makes the overall EV for playing the hand, $1.77.

On average, I win much more here by folding, compared to taking the risk (almost 1/2 a buy-in).. so it's a clear fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 03:46 PM
(#4)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
Thanks a lot guys!
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 11:39 PM
(#5)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Here's what the SitNGo Wizard says about the numbers.

Assume a tight 9.3% range for the Cut Off Villain who shoves:

Suggest: Call with a 5.9% range (88+,AQ+,AJs+)
  • 11.5% UTG wins main pot, Cut Off wins side pot, Hero cashes $0
  • 11.7% UTG wins main pot, Hero wins side pot 6125 chips ($3.84)
  • 38.2% Cut Off wins main pot, Hero cashes $1.39
  • 38.6% Hero wins main pot and cashes $3.90

Then assume the Cut Off's range is "Very Loose" 19%.

Suggest: Call with an 8.9% range (66+,AT+)
  • 10.3% UTG wins main pot, Cut Off wins side pot, Hero cashes $0
  • 15.2% UTG wins main pot, Hero wins side pot 6125 chips ($3.84)
  • 30.6% Cut Off wins main pot, Hero cashes $1.39
  • 43.9% Hero wins main pot and cashes $3.90

I agree with John about your equity when you fold: $2.45. But when you call, it goes up to $2.86, and higher if you put the Cut Off on a wider range than 19% because your odds get better then. Now if you're still folding here, I'd love to sit at the same table with you.
 
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Mon Aug 26, 2013, 11:53 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
Here's what the SitNGo Wizard says about the numbers.

Assume a tight 9.3% range for the Cut Off Villain who shoves:

Suggest: Call with a 5.9% range (88+,AQ+,AJs+)
  • 11.5% UTG wins main pot, Cut Off wins side pot, Hero cashes $0
  • 11.7% UTG wins main pot, Hero wins side pot 6125 chips ($3.84)
  • 38.2% Cut Off wins main pot, Hero cashes $1.39
  • 38.6% Hero wins main pot and cashes $3.90

Then assume the Cut Off's range is "Very Loose" 19%.

Suggest: Call with an 8.9% range (66+,AT+)
  • 10.3% UTG wins main pot, Cut Off wins side pot, Hero cashes $0
  • 15.2% UTG wins main pot, Hero wins side pot 6125 chips ($3.84)
  • 30.6% Cut Off wins main pot, Hero cashes $1.39
  • 43.9% Hero wins main pot and cashes $3.90

I agree with John about your equity when you fold: $2.45. But when you call, it goes up to $2.86, and higher if you put the Cut Off on a wider range than 19% because your odds get better then. Now if you're still folding here, I'd love to sit at the same table with you.
Per your other post too... you are not using the correct payouts in SNGW. 50/50's do not pay out 60% to the winner, and 10% to 2nd-5th.... they pay out 10% to the top 5... plus what their remaining stack is worth.. the numbers that you posted here are incorrect.

John (JWK24)

P.S. I'd estimate the cutoff's range to be much wider than 9.3%.. more like 30-40%.


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Last edited by JWK24; Mon Aug 26, 2013 at 11:59 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 12:36 AM
(#7)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
The payout structure is not fixed in a Fifty50 tournament as you know. You see the exact payouts the hero will face should he make the call.

About winning the sidepot when the short stack wins the main pot:

Quote:
The other times, I LOSE $1.50 25% of the time...
Now here you're suggesting that AQs loses 50% of the time against a range of 30-40%.

And you ignore the case where the hero wins the huge side pot but loses the main pot.

I don't trust your numbers John.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 12:59 AM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Forget SNG Wizard,Pokerstove,ICM calcs and everything else,the only thing anyone needs to know here is that you don't get in for stacks against someone who has you covered at the end game of a 50/50 when there are 1 or more cripple stacks unless you have the nuts or damn close to it.

This is the power of a big stack in a 50/50. He can shove like this. When we have that power we should look to use it in the same way. But when we don't and are sitting on a sure thing cash with a pretty decent stack of our own (say we even fold our SB next hand and someone else KO's villain 6...we still finish with 2460 chips for a $2.37 pay out...)we don't look to be getting into tussles with the big stacks unless it's a fight of OUR choosing.

Only way we don't cash here is to shoot ourselves in the foot.

If we're on a table where the big stack isn't opening almost every hand to put max pressure on then we can target the shorties and bubble watchers ourselves. But you have to have flex in your game to adjust to the realities of each and every situation you're in. 50/50's play differently than any other SNG,but that doesn't mean that every 50/50 we enter will play the same and therefore we'll see different spots. This spot with these stacks...easy fold.

Targeting our action against the RIGHT stacks trumps and avoiding confrontation with the WRONG stacks trumps all at the end game of these 50/50's Affluenza.

Correct fold here by you IMO.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Tue Aug 27, 2013 at 01:03 AM..
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 02:28 AM
(#9)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I'm amazed. Folding AQs here is a bigger mistake than folding AA on the BB when a bigger stack shoves. But I guess Moxie would fold aces too?
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 03:27 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
I'm amazed. Folding AQs here is a bigger mistake than folding AA on the BB when a bigger stack shoves. But I guess Moxie would fold aces too?
If you're going to make your responses that ridiculous (folding AA...really?...so this looks like a satellite to you?...) then you really are just making the points for those who disagree with you for us.
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 09:41 PM
(#11)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Moxie,

It's not a matter of opinion. In a Satellite you would fold aces if there's a micro stack who will be knocked out soon and if you're given a 15% of losing your chips first, just because you don't need more chips to survive. In a Fifty50, more chips are worth more money. You lose equity by folding here. Sure, your ITM% will go down a bit but your ROI will go up. Sandtrap will fold, of course, because he likes a high ITM% more than a high ROI.

Run this position 100 times:

FOLD: ITM 100%, cash $245.
CALL: ITM 89.7%, cash $272.11 (more if the big stack's range >20%)

It's fine with me if you guys want to fold here but better poker players call.
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 02:22 PM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post

Run this position 100 times:

FOLD: ITM 100%, cash $245.
CALL: ITM 89.7%, cash $272.11 (more if the big stack's range >20%)

Would be interested in seeing the math you used that tells you calling here with AQs is going to get us ITM 89.7% of the time.

Even against a 100% (pure random) range AQs is only 66%. What Villain 6 is holding is pretty much immaterial to this situation as they're so short that it essentially comes down to us and the shover if we call. And we're NEVER winning 89.7% of the time against even a random 100% range of hands,not with AA,KK,72o or,as in the hand shown here,AQs.

If the shover's hand was face up before we make our decision AdQd is only 62% over Ks6s.I'm deeply puzzled as to how you come up with we cash 89.7% of the time by calling here. You say even more if they're range is greater than 20%,I'm going with 100% and it's nowhere close.

I think you're somehow letting the shortie being in the hand mess up your calculation. They're immaterial to OUR play here. If we call we HAVE to beat the big stack at showdown or we're gone. Period.

The BEST we can hope for if we lose to the big stack is that the shortie also loses and we both bust and since we had the bigger stack we finish 5th to "cash" at a loss of .11 since we have NO CHIPS.

FWIW I don't subscribe to the idea that we cash 100% of the time when we fold here either. As shown the shortie doubled up in this hand so the game is still afoot. We could get AA or KK next hand and play for stacks and lose.

Poker happens.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Thu Aug 29, 2013 at 02:26 PM..
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 02:53 PM
(#13)
flight2night's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 59
AQ suited is my biggest -ev hand ..strong enough to get into trouble....overall stats in 300 hands 58.5 prcnt win vs any 2 ...where did u get the 89 pcnt ????? i only wish it was lol... sorry raccy I'm on the clear fold wagon.....

There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. Mark Twain
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 03:50 PM
(#14)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I've tried doing some EV calcs based on villains having random hands, and by calculating how much "tournament equity" we have by calling or folding. It got really complex, but I think it is actually profitable to call in this spot, but it's pretty damn close.

At the decision point, we have 2650 chips, and this translates to tournament equity of $1.39 + $1.06 = $2.45. So by folding, we have $2.45 of equity.

If we call with AQs vs two random hands, we have just less than 50% equity, as John pointed out.

If we scoop the whole pot (which happens about 50% of the time), the tourney ends, and we gain 3125 chips. This adds $1.25 to our equity.

If the big stack scoops (25% of the time) we go busto, but will still collect $1.39. Since we would have held on to $2.45 by folding, then we're losing $1.06 of equity when the big stack scoops the pot.

If the shorty wins the pot (25% of the time), we are effectively heads up against the big stack and we have 66% equity in the rest of the pot. 66% of the time, we gain 2950 chips, which is worth $1.18. 33% of the time, we lose everything including our tourney life, for a loss of $2.45 of equity.

In summary...

50% of the time, we gain $1.25
25% of the time, we lose $1.06
25% of the time, we win $1.18 two thirds of the time and lose $2.45 one third of the time.

So the total EV of calling is...

(50% * $1.25) + (25% of -$1.06) + 25% of (66% of $1.18 + 33% of -$2.45)

= 63c - 53c + 25% of (78c - 81c)

= 10c - 1c

The total EV of calling is therefore: +9c

So if my numbers are right (I've rounded things up when we got to fractions of cents) calling the shove in this spot will add 9 cents to our bankroll in the long run. It IS +EV to call, but 9c is a little too small an edge for a nit like me to chase.


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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 04:19 PM
(#15)
flight2night's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 59
thanks Arty...that is clear and to point...cheers ...and by the way if a block head like me can get it well done teach F2N
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 04:47 PM
(#16)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Arty, I just checked your numbers
Made a few corrections, hope it makes sense

If we scoop the whole pot (which happens about 50% of the time), the tourney ends, and we gain 3125 chips. This adds $1.25 to our equity.

225 (Villain6) + 150 (Villain4) + 2950 (Villain10) = 3325 * $0.04 = $1.33

So the total EV of calling is...
(50% * $1.33) + (25% of -$1.06) + 25% of (66% of $1.18 + 33% of -$2.45)
= 66.5c - 26.5c + 25% of (78c - 81c)
= 40c - 1c

The total EV of calling is therefore: +39c
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 05:11 PM
(#17)
flight2night's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 59
even at 39 for a coin flip??? still folding now I have to run it myself thanks sand lol cheers gl F2N
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 05:39 PM
(#18)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I had a feeling I'd made a schoolboy error or two somewhere along the line. Thanks Sandtrap.

It looks like I forgot to include the ante chips as part of the dead money, so we stand to gain 3325 chips if we scoop the pot, as you've pointed out.

The more crucial mistake in my math is that I wrote (25% of -$1.06) and then typed 50% of 1.06 into my calculator. :facepalm: It should indeed be a 26.5c loss, not a 53c loss!


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