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Guess my stats for a $1 reward! Grinding 100x $1.50 Turbo Fifty50

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Guess my stats for a $1 reward! Grinding 100x $1.50 Turbo Fifty50 - Tue Aug 27, 2013, 02:58 AM
(#1)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Alright. Here's the deal.

I'm going to play 100 tournaments, $1.50 buy-in, Turbo speed, Fifty50 payout structure, at PokerStars, starting tomorrow, in around 24 hours from now.

What will my ITM% and ROI be in this 100-tournament sample?

Whoever comes closest wins $1.00 which I'll transfer to their PS account. I'll be comparing the arithmetic average of the error % so if you guess my ITM is 55% but it ends up being 50% that's a 10% error.

You can study my stats all you want if you want to get a sense of my performance in the past but I haven't really played this kind of tournaments lately so I have no idea how I'll do. I'm curious to find out.

Now I'll be the first to guess:

100 games, Avg buy-in $1.50, ITM 55%, ROI 8%.

But if I win, I'll send the $1 to #2 so you don't have to worry about me trying to match my own guess.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 03:45 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
ITM 75% ROI 15%
Good luck with the challenge.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 11:43 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 11:53 AM
(#4)
bokyaw's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 749
ITM 0% ROI 0%

ps id:bokyaw
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 12:01 PM
(#5)
butchsd's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by bokyaw View Post
ITM 0% ROI 0%
If ITM is 0%, ROI will be -100%.

My guess: ITM 59%, ROI 12%


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 01:29 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
With apologies for perhaps underestimating your skills, I'll go for slightly lower numbers.
ITM of 51%, ROI of 2.3%

I hope you prove me wrong! Good luck!


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 02:44 PM
(#7)
klem70's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 53
Itm 63% roi 14%

gl
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 02:58 PM
(#8)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Itm 70, roi 11
gl
 
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Itm & roi - Tue Aug 27, 2013, 03:53 PM
(#9)
Ironutz4u's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 2
I'm going with an ITM of 56% and an ROI of 11%
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 05:01 PM
(#10)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
ITM 64% ROI 1.5%

I reckon you need to be 60-70% ITM just to break even - then the ROI will depend on how often you get a big stack and take a cash prize in the $3.50-$4.00 range.

Good luck - should be very interesting.

Ed


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 07:01 PM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Itm 45%

ROI 26%

Grade. B


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 08:08 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
ITM 55%
Hey raccy

I haven't been following the debates y'all have been having over 50/50's since I haven't played them in a while, and when I gave them a try it was a massive disaster

It's always seemed like maybe there are two ways to be profitable at 50/50's - and I've heard of lots of people doing it by cashing a lot for a little. But based on the way Celina Lin played in her *EPIC* video, it also seems like it's possible to be profitable by cashing less often for a lot? Although I've never actually seen or heard of anybody who's done it this way. But it sounds like that's maybe your plan?

So I guess I'll pick an ITM close to what you've estimated for yourself, and then ... well sometimes the variance can be funny so I guess over a sample of 100 games it could wind up a lot higher or a lot lower ... maybe I'll take a gamble and give you a higher one.

So my guess'll be:

ITM: 57%
ROI: 14%

GL!!
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 10:56 PM
(#13)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
53%itm 7%roi

gl

ph
.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 11:19 PM
(#14)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
I've been playing these myself, I'm going to guess 65% ITM with 45% ROI.
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 03:47 AM
(#15)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Thanks everyone!

I see 12 valid guesses, so far, including ITM 0%, ROI 0%. (I hope that's not the winner)

I'm about to get started but I'll be accepting more guesses for a few more hours. I'm not sure if this will improve my credibility commenting on those Fiifty50 games or make it worse but either way, we should find out in less than a week.
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 06:17 AM
(#16)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
12 bets, good luck!


Code:
Player		ITM%	ROI%
raccy		55	8
GamblingProp	75	15
bokyaw		0	0
butchsd		59	12
ArtySmokesPS	51	2.3
klem70		63	14
Profess Awe	70	11
Ironutz4u	56	11
EdinFreeMan	64	1.5
Grade b		45	26
TrustySam	57	14
PINOY_HITMAN	53	7
joy7108		65	45

It didn't start out so well. First hand, 55, after some careful betting and raising landed a straight on the river. Checked and called the limper's bet only to see their flush that they got on the river. That was the first half of my stack I lost the second half a few rounds later, pushed with A5, BB called with AK. Oh well The next ones went slightly better although I couldn't hold on to my chip lead in any of them. Hmph.

Last edited by raccy; Wed Aug 28, 2013 at 10:02 AM.. Reason: didn't show HTML properly, added GamblingProp
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 08:57 AM
(#17)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
First 20 down, I think. So far, so good.

Here's how one of the regulars tried to steal my blind.


They were trying to bully me all the time maybe because they were in the perfect position for that. Well, the minimum raise and a weak c-bet just didn't work here so I took the lead and gave them the chance of making a -EV call.

My turn to be the bully with some success.


I was surprised to get two callers but that seems to happen a lot in these $1.50 games.
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 09:12 AM
(#18)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
No love for my guess?
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 10:03 AM
(#19)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Sorry GamblingProp, I missed it earlier. Now it's there.
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 07:06 AM
(#20)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
40 games down, 60 to go. ITM 72%, ROI 54%. It looks like joy7108's guess is in good position.
 

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