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10nl - TPGK vs donk river shove

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10nl - TPGK vs donk river shove - Tue Aug 27, 2013, 06:43 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179


Weird hand to say the least. Gameflow might come into it a little here. The previous hand I 3b/5b shoved with KK, so I thought if I 3b the next hand i'd get a fair bit of respect vs a looser reg (24/20). I also have no problem playing a 3b pot IP with a hand like KQ. Flatting also has it's merits of course.

Flop comes pretty dry. Cbet is pretty standard.

Turn is a great card. Not only does it make my hand, but it's a card that I would be perceived to barrel on. I think he has a pretty weak range here (mid pair heavy), so I size my bet a little smaller to keep this range in.

River is where the interesting part is. He donk shoves pot on an 8.

The only hand I'd expect him to take this line with (given the preflop action) would be TT. 88 would most likely fold to my turn barrel, and a random 3 would also be unlikely.

AK would most likely 4b pre, but if he did decide to call, he'd c/c the river.

I just thought through the hand, and since I couldn't make sense of it as a value line, I make the begrudging call.

I think it's really close though.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 07:01 AM
(#2)
spid3rix's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 9
Hi birdayy,

I think you should add another hand to his range - KT, AKc (maybe he stacks off with AK). Now it,s important how aggressive he is, but this line is a very strong one and his range is polarized. If my opponent is a strong regular he will show up very often here with TT. The fact that he is loose give you a reason to call on the river, but without reads I wouldn't call this bet on the river.

Last edited by spid3rix; Tue Aug 27, 2013 at 07:07 AM..
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 07:02 AM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I think thats a snap call on the river.
So many of his draws miss there and unless has TT which he decided to slowplay, you are probably ahead.
Well played.
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 11:32 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,

Meh, if he's a solid winning reg, I don't like calling here. If he's a fishy or weaker reg, as played I think the call is fine given the flush missed and we are near the top of our range. It is certainly not a snap call though, I think we'll get shown a better hand quite often here.

A couple thoughts:

I would generally check back the turn here. Barreling simply because we think it's a good barrel card isn't necessarily the best play. First of all the villain has to recognize this, understand we recognize it, and be willing to call 2 more streets with his Tx and mid pairs based on that knowledge. The reason the K is a good barreling card after all is because most players will release mid pairs now. Second, barrel card or not, what bluffs can we have here? You already said you felt the preflop 3b would get respect. So basically the only hand we have that's not the goods that is barreling is AQ? Assuming we even chose to 3b that pre, which we may well have flatted IP preflop sometimes. JJ+ and AK are either checking back for pot control and to induce on the river, or betting again for value. Against villains who we think are ranging us, it's important to correlate the pre and post flop play into how they will read our action. The K may be a good barrel card for us to bluff at, but according to the preflop range we believe we'll be getting credit for, we have almost no bluffs at this point anyway. Which is why I don't like calling the river vs. a solid winning reg. They should perceive our range as very strong here and won't try some weird random bluff like ever, they'll simply have AK+ most of the time.

That's the other thought, AK... you said you felt he would either 4b pre, or c/c the river with it. I can't agree, because if I held AK in his shoes (and sometimes I would not 4b pre) I would always lead the river into you because I would expect you to check down JJ/QQ, but might hero call me with those if you think I busted a club draw. I have to pay off AA anyway, I might as well get value from QQ/JJ as compensation.


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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 12:30 PM
(#5)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
But Dave we have a King blocker, so AK won't be part of his range so often.
And the check-call on the turn has to be either a monster slwoplaying, or a weak maybe drawy hand.
I am folding river only if opponent is a nit, I think a reg could bluff there often enough to make it a +EV call.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Tue Aug 27, 2013 at 12:35 PM..
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 12:53 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
There's 2 kings accounted for, so 8 card combos of AK possible, that's still quite a bit. I'm just telling you I personally would not be polarized here to monsters or bluffs. Maybe this guy is. Assuming everyone is becomes optimistic. It's more reason to fold though imo. I don't know how you define "reg" or how loosely you're using that term (I assume birdayy meant winning player), but if this guy is solid winning player he should basically never be bluffing here because our range is so strong in this spot. If he's a weak reg (plays a lot but is not a strong winning player) then calling is ok since he may well not recognize it's not a good spot to bluff and fire a missed draw. After seeing what he actually showed down (and making the appropriate note) I would certainly call in similar future spots.


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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 01:15 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
So are we saying Birday's range from villains perspective is TT+ AQs+ and the only hands folding the river shove are JJ QQ and AQs, so the river bluff is a bad idea? and thats if we were in the villains shoes we can assume that Birday is capable of folding JJ QQ.

So i guess the only hand villain can assume that Birday is folding for sure is AQs because he don't have reads on him. I gather this is what your saying Dave that if the villain was a winning reg then this is what he would be thinking?

So hes only shoving AK+
 
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Tue Aug 27, 2013, 01:20 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Yes.


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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 05:21 AM
(#9)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
From what I'm gathering from you Dave is that it's very villain dependent.

In regards to barreling the K, are you saying we should barrel for value or check to induce / maintain pot control?

Also, do you believe KQ warrants 3 streets of value, meaning, if he calls turn and checks river, we would check behind, or would we shove?

Thanks.
 
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Wed Aug 28, 2013, 10:29 AM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Yes, I think it's pretty hard to get 3 streets of value from worse here, particularly with the strong range you think we'll be perceived as having, unless we had a read that this villain is a huge payoff artist. And I think the best way to get 2 streets from worse rather than 1, is to check back the turn and then call river or bet if checked to again.


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