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Push or fold? $1.50 Fifty50 Turbo near the bubble

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Push or fold? $1.50 Fifty50 Turbo near the bubble - Thu Aug 29, 2013, 10:52 AM
(#1)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
7 players left, blinds 75/150/25. The shortest stack (374) on the button, the second shortest stack (1190) on BB.
A min raise (320) from the cutoff (2534) who frequently raises around BB. I'm not sure if they're one of the regulars but they were playing multiple tables at the same time, just like me. I'm the SB with a slightly bigger stack (3685). I've analysed this hand with SngWizard. It suggests that I fold BUT if I push, the short stack BB should call with a 5.8% range (88+,AQ+,AJs+) and the cutoff should call with a 13% range (44+, A9+,...) assuming that they opened with a 19% range (33+, A5+,...).



Given my stack size, folds from the two really short stacks, and the recent discussion about Fifty50 bubble play, I decided to push. I expected the cutoff to fold as I thought they'd be one of the low-ROI regulars whose first goal is to finish ITM. I didn't expect any of the villains to be aware of their call ranges. There was the possibility of the cutoff having a monster but I had enough chips to survive even if I lost the pot.

So I'm curious about how others would play this.
  1. If you were me would you fold because you've secured your place ITM or push because you want to steal the pot?
  2. If you were the cutoff raising with A5, would you fold because you've practically secured your place ITM or would you call because you think I'm trying to steal the pot with 93o?
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 11:11 AM
(#2)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Some more analysis from SnG Wizard. I don't know where these probabilities come from but it says this:
  • 31.9% the cutoff folds and my stack size will be 4255.
  • 5.7% BB calls and cutoff folds
    • 22.8% I win and will have 5275 chips
    • BB wins and my stack size will be 2495
  • 61.9% cutoff calls
    • 26.7% I win and my stack size will be 6469
    • 73.3% cutoff wins and my stack size will be 1151

So according to SnG Wizard, the call from the cutoff is more likely than surprising.
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 11:58 AM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I don't think it's a profitable move.
First of all shoving with 93 on the SB if it gets folded to you is a good move, because of the enormous fold equity and the fact that you only have one player to worry about.
But the cutoff won't be minraising light there, since he has to call the two shortstacks shove, so his range will usually be strong.
If I were on cutoff's position though I would be folding pre, if not I would be folding to your shove.
 
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Thu Aug 29, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi raccy,

It's an intriguing spot, as I would think most sane players would just fold everything but KK+ to our shove given the stack sizes of V3 and V8. But to answer your questions:

1) I would fold rather than push, simply because I don't trust V6 to raise/fold without a somewhat decent read, and our hand has pretty poor value when he doesn't fold. I'd be more inclined with a hand that has some more value to it (97s, K8o) or a read that V6 is planning to fold to a shove by us to preserve his top 5 spot without aces.

2) I would have folded the A5o to a shove from your stack.


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Fri Aug 30, 2013, 03:23 AM
(#5)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I too would fold that A5 90% of the time just because it's easily dominated by another ace. If a bigger stack wakes up with AT+ they would most likely shove it. But I spent some more time thinking of this and that's why I'm saying I'd fold it only 90% of the time.

The 10% when I'd get my middle finger ready and call the shove: if I think the player shoving is one of the regulars just trying to bully me, and if I'm one of the regulars too, a call here would be a message to them that I'm not afraid of putting my tournament life in line. If my A5 doesn't hold against their 93, I'd give them the finger (which they'd never see) for cashing $0, but, next time in the same spot they'd definitely think twice before trying to steal the pot from me. Having said that, the next time I might be more than inclined to fold my 93 if this particular villain raises.
 
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Fri Aug 30, 2013, 05:56 AM
(#6)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
Some more analysis from SnG Wizard. I don't know where these probabilities come from but it says this:
  • 31.9% the cutoff folds and my stack size will be 4255.
  • 5.7% BB calls and cutoff folds
    • 22.8% I win and will have 5275 chips
    • BB wins and my stack size will be 2495
  • 61.9% cutoff calls
    • 26.7% I win and my stack size will be 6469
    • 73.3% cutoff wins and my stack size will be 1151

So according to SnG Wizard, the call from the cutoff is more likely than surprising.
% is the same as hand ranges, BB would call with 5% of hand range and your hand has got 22% equity against his hand range, CO would call with 61% of his opening hand range. You have got there a lot of fold equity that's why it suggests to push. but after his call I think he's got stats on you and it's not the first time and you don't have such a huge fold equity. just try and change his calling hand range there and write 100% instead of 61.9%. You'll see difference.

Last edited by Shichi-77; Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 06:04 AM..
 

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