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Trips Qs vs 200BB shove.

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Trips Qs vs 200BB shove. - Fri Aug 30, 2013, 02:42 PM
(#1)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
This is a hand I played A while ago and I’ve hesitated to post it here as everyone I’ve spoken to has called me an idiot and said that this is a snap call. But I keep coming back to it and I can’t make up my mind.
This is a 2NL cash game, the cutoff is a loose reg he plays 33/23 (301) with a cutoff steal of 62 but I don’t see him as a fish. The Big Blind is a nit playing 9/8 (87).
I flat the cutoffs 3x open in order to win a nice pot from all those Ax hands that I dominate and am mildly surprised but not overly concerned when the BB comes along.

Nice flop. But now the Nit Donks out and my intended target folds. Looking back I think I should raise here for value but at the time I felt that this was a fairly safe board and if he has a Q I can get the money in on later streets anyway. Hopefully now I can get another bet on the turn from a random Pocket pair that might fold to a raise here.

A safe looking turn and a lead from the Nit. Now I go for value. Maybe my raise ia a bit small but I’m hoping Qx might play back me…

But not like that! Now I have no clue. Does he really do this with a Q? Protecting against a flush draw? I don’t think he’s ever doing this with a Pocket pair so I have to take a boat (44 or maybe 66) seriously. I tank. My stats are useless as basically have none for his turn play. I often use Note Caddy’s scatter graph for betsizing tells but I only have 2 bets marked for him, both pre flop both showing big bets with very strong hands.

In the end I decide that he has a boat a lot here (although if he does I don’t like the shove) and I fold. But I’m still not sure.



Last edited by RobinQQQ; Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 02:44 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Fri Aug 30, 2013, 03:58 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Rob,

Last night I turned a short winning session into a losing one by making a complete idiot bluff. Don't worry about making the occasional "idiot play", we all do it. The only true idiot play is to not learn from our mistakes.

So in this hand, firstly I would 3b preflop in this spot all day long. This guy is so far out of line from the cut off it's not even funny, and he's attacking my button? I don't think so. The button is so very valuable in deep stacked poker, and if an opponent is constantly trying to take mine away, he is going to have a problem with me. I would be 3-betting him a fair bit and since I will certainly do it light, I would also expand my value range and that includes AQ. Don't worry about getting value from Ax... you will. You didn't include his fold to 3B stat (and maybe have too small a sample at 2nl for this yet), but guys that play stat lines like this, they don't like to fold too much in my experience. We will get quite a bit of folds from his pure junk I'm sure, but stuff like Ax and broadways probably fall into his 3b calling category.


As played, I would go ahead and get the money in post flop. I think the read of super nit isn't clear at 9/8 over 87 hands. He may be 18/15 and just card dead right now. If he was 2/2 over 87 hands, or 9/8 over 500 hands, it would be more convincing. It would also be odd to see him lead out with 44 and not give the maniac a chance to c-bet, trapping us in the middle. I could see him taking this line with Qx, but a full house people slow play more. Lastly, because of how we played the hand, he probably thinks KQ is the nuts here. He would probably do this with KQ and maybe QJs. He could also hold another AQ. There's 3 combos of 44, 3 of AQ, 4 of KQ, 1 of QJs. imo everyone who called you an idiot is wrong, this is not a snap call. Snap call implies no brainer, nothing to think about, and I don't think that's the case here. It seems to me this is closer than those people think. But after thinking it through logically I think we do have a +EV call here.


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Fri Aug 30, 2013, 08:11 PM
(#3)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Cheers Dave just seeing monsters under the bed I suppose.

Last edited by RobinQQQ; Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 08:11 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Fri Aug 30, 2013, 08:15 PM
(#4)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
oh yeah fold to 3 bet was 50% of 10.
 

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