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FR 2nl Zoom, worst turn ever?

FR 2nl Zoom, worst turn ever? - Fri Aug 30, 2013, 07:12 PM
Espada_Nu.4's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 148

no raeds.
i raised the flop because its super wet, and the turn completes all draws. i think if he was going to continue with an overpair(JJ+), he would shove OTF and not call
what now?
Fri Aug 30, 2013, 08:14 PM
spid3rix's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 9
In my opinion, his range is pretty wide here. His range depends on his tendencies (loose, tight), but as a standard from that position would be KT+, QT+, AT, and some pocket pairs. As played on the flop he hasnt any pocket pair. TT 99 would have shoved JJ-AA would have shoved too. If opponent is weak he will play the hand this way with AhT or QT, KT. Given the raise on the flop, any bet IP will commit you and you will get value only from QJ, AhT and KT with the king of hearts. SO here even if we have a set and we must protect it i think I would check and reevalutate on the river. I hope this helps. It would be nice to know what did he have.
Fri Aug 30, 2013, 09:05 PM
Mikey_Luggs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
I am also playing 2NL at the moment but play 6max. If this was me I would check the turn and see how they react on the river. I've found most playing 2NL won't try and bluff after the flop has gone cbet/raise/call. Also if you take the free card you might spike the full house on the river and have an easy call if he ships.
Fri Aug 30, 2013, 09:28 PM
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30
Hi Espada

Not a good turn

This is a check back on the turn you have 21.5% chance to fill up on the river
If you bet you may be forced to fold

If the river is a blank and are check to you can bet fold or check back

If he bets out it a much closer spot it will come down to his bet sizing i may lean towards folding
Sat Aug 31, 2013, 05:41 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Espada,

Let's go through this step by step; The flop texture is pretty wet. Like you said, I also think that Overpairs and 2pair+ would put the rest in OTF. I'm not sure why you did not raise 3x though? I want to put more money OTF now when we are good before something scary comes OTT.

When they just call there I think their range would consist of one pair hands, and draws. I would have to think that NFDs would be jamming the flop too particularly NFDs with two overs. So I think his flop calling range would be something like this: { AT-JT, Ah8h-Ah3h, KhQh, QJ, 87 } Against that range we have 63% equity. Try to use PokerStove and add AhKh-AhJh; you'll notice that our equity only drops down by 2%!! That's because there are less combos of FDs than TP.

But the question is if we bet the rest now, what hands will he continue with?
Obviously all his made flushes: 11 combos
Straight: 18 combos - 87
Two pair: 9 combos - JT
Top Pair: 12 combos - QJ
Middle Pair + FD: 9 combos - AT-QT with a heart

So they will continue with 59 combos out of 80 combos of his flop calling range
We lose to 29 combos (flush + straights) and win against 30 combos; so that is pretty close
Our equity OTT against their continuation range is 56% and that's basically because they will have a heart to go with their TP/MP that they would be willing to put the rest of their monies in now but might not if they missed the river. So lets go ahead and put the rest in (It would have helped us more had we raised the flop to a better sizing)

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