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Sam's Blog - ICM Edition

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Sam's Blog - ICM Edition - Sun Sep 01, 2013, 09:06 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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A couple of weeks ago I downloaded the trial of SNG Wizard 2.0 (Beta), and have been giving it a try by playing some hyper-turbo satties.

And some of the results have been real eye-openers! Thought people who haven't ever given the software a try might find the results interesting to see as well, since some of the same ideas might also apply to STTs and even tournaments?

Studying ICM is my 'side project', so the discussion in this thread'll be beginner level. Also, I'm still trying to figure out how to use SNG Wizard

More to come!
 
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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 08:56 PM
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This blog seemed like a good idea at the time, but now I'm struggling to think of how to make the content interesting

I was playing some hyper-turbo satties for the Sunday Storm, and here's some samples of the feedback I got back from SNG Wizard on my play (click for bigger picture )


Sample 1 - SNG Wizard recommends pushing a lot wider in late position




Sample 2 - SNG Wizard: 'wider, wider!'




Sample 3 - SNG Wizard, 'okay, not that wide ...' (d'oh! )




So far I've just been looking at the cards SNG Wizard's been recommending, without looking more closely at stacks sizes. Guess I'll have to take a look at those next?

Hope people find the general idea behind SNG's recommendations to be interesting - like if most of us would choose to play tighter than their recommendations?

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 09:49 PM.. Reason: had the pictures in the wrong order :/
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 04:21 AM
(#3)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I don't have much experience of SnG Wizard but do have a "gut" sense for ICM. It's a very complicated subject as a lot of variables are taken into account. Remember the software is only as good as the info you feed it.

I seen a really intereting AKs fold on the bubble that was a snap call for me but the player (a pro) was adamant was a fold. When he explained the numbers I sort of understood him. I'll see if I can find the hand again because it epitomises ICM and the nuances to it. I'll ask for permission to post it first as it's not my hand.

Put up a few hands for discussion, even though it's your blog ICM is an interesting part of the game that can mean the difference between a winning and losing game.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 06:26 PM
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Hey, Ovalman!! Great to see you!! Was hoping other people might join in this thread, since yeah ICM seems so complicated, to help sort things out and stuff

About sort of picking up a sense for ITM from all that repetition of play at one type of game ... there was this hand below that I wasn't sure about, and the calculator outputted exactly what it was sort of seeming like, so I kind of feel like yeah, some of it might come naturally from playing.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
STT ICM Hand to do Later

My computer crashed again, so I'm back to using my backup computer, that only has a semi-functional PT3. Which isn't so bad, since it allows me to play STTs. That's the game I used to play before switching over to cash - regular speed STTs were (and are) the only form of SNG I've ever been able to play profitably ... and I've tried out TONS!!

Anyways, so I was in this 4-handed spot yesterday, 3 spots get paid, and I picked up AJ utg and wasn't sure what to do. I folded, but it turns out that if I'd shoved and the sb called, I'd have won. Whereas by leaving it to the big stack, maybe that might not have happened?

Not at all sure what the right move was with my AJ on the bubble!! Will have to check when my computer comes back from the shop ...




PS I really enjoy playing Zoom and don't miss the variance that came with playing STTs. However, it was lovely having the chance last night to have a night away from the Zoom pool, and play against players with a different skill set. The players to my immediate right and left were fantastic!! So that's always a treat to be able to play against people who play better than you, who you learn things from ...

So my computer came back from the shop, and I downloaded the SNG Wizard 30-day trial. And SNG Wiz on first glance appears to be quite a powerful tool ... but all sorts of complicated

Finally got it to output an answer to this hand though, and shockingly the AJ was a fold! I'd done some calcs in the past, and knew that when there's a massive stack to your left, and you're not the shortest stack, then your shoving range should be SUPER tight. But would have thought the AJ would have been a shove? Not really sure just yet what the data's saying about why that is - will have to look that over at a future date to try and figure out the reasons why?




Sometimes it's kind of fun to have a 'side project' to keep things fun and exciting, anybody else find that? Last year, I thought it'd be fun to give PLO a try, but didn't like it. So this ICM stuff's my new side hobby ... just as something to do as the occasional break from cash games and stuff?

On the other hand, I've heard of hands like the one you mentioned and posted in HA with the AK, where something might seem like an obvious call and then the ICM calculator'll wind up recommending a fold, etc.

And then, I've never been very good at turbos or hyper-turbos, and all the satties for tourneys are that format, so I thought it might be kind of cool to put a bunch of hands through SNG Wizard.


Will start a new post to talk about the formula ... after dinner

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 06:29 PM..
 
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Tue Nov 26, 2013, 07:28 AM
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Hey, so I never came back to post in this thread - wasn't sure what to add. Maybe my graph might be a start?

Before getting SNG Wizard in September I was consistently losing, and now I'm breakeven ... so it looks like the advice it gave helped. Although the hope was to be able to turn a profit Not quite there yet ...


My Results Post SNG Wizard




Part of the problem is that I haven't yet found a hyper-turbo format and entry fee that I like - the SNG hyper-turbos start at blinds of 10/20, whereas the satties start at 50/100 (so the latter are faster). But the only satties that run 24/7 are the Storm ones, which are like a $3.75 entry fee - and they're packed with regs, so ... they're probably not ideal for a beginner like me.

Was thinking it'd be cool to play enough hyper-turbos each week to make enough to be able to freeroll the Sunday Storm, so maybe it might be worth giving the $1.50 SNGs a try instead? Guess I'll also have to play more than like 1 a day on average too lol

Ahhh ... will see how it goes ....

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Nov 26, 2013 at 07:30 AM..
 
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Tue Nov 26, 2013, 06:52 PM
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Just went and played 13 satties for the Hot $5.50, something's wrong with the record-keeping for PT, so my graph's all screwed up, but maybe it might be interesting to look over the feedback SNG Wizard gives for my hands? Haven't actually consulted it in a while, so ... my play may have veered off course

Will have to upload my hands and see what comes out ...
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 06:50 AM
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Managed to get PT4 to churn out a graph of yesterday's hyper-turbos after much wrangling - d'oh! And it was 14 satties, not 13:




Not sure how reliable that all-in EV line is ...


Anyways, the SNG Wizard recommendations are a bit of a mixed bag - 8 of the 14 games got good feedback:

Click to show hidden text



But for 6 of the 14 games, SNG Wizard was recommending open shoves with a LOT wider range. Which is sometimes hard to do - like here are some of the recommendations:

Click to show hidden text


on the button with 10bbs

from mp with 10bbs

from co with 10bbs – d was short (5bbs), bb was big stack (18bbs)

from sb with 4bbs – bb also had 4bbs

from sb with 5bbs – bb had 4bbs, and flashed KK


Have kind of been resisting opening up my range even further because (1) it *feels* like the results haven't been great, and (2) it doesn't seem like anyone else is shoving quite so wide? SNG Wiz gave this shove a thumbs up:



Right into AK




Guess if people are calling with like a 10%-20% range, then 80%-90% of the time we should be picking up the blinds, and of the times our shove is met with a call, we still have some equity? Except sometimes there's like an urge there to want to tighten up when people keep waking up in the blinds with hands. But maybe that's just variance, and it's a mistake to tighten up? So that's something I've been struggling with - that decision of how wide/tight to shove.


Here's one spot though where SNG Wizard recommended shoving ... guess if the villain pretty much has to call with any 2, then J-high might be in pretty good shape, is that the theory? So probably folding was a mistake:




Am enjoying these Hyper-Turbos as a side-hobby to cash games a lot more than Omaha, so ... it'd be lovely to learn how to turn a profit lol


Thanks for reading - have a nice day

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:56 AM..
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#8)
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Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 549
Hi Sam, i passed by and saw that you write about SNG Wizard 2. It is good that you decided to use this program, but i would recommend you download the SNG Wizard 1. When i started using SNG Wizard 2, i found there are many inaccuracies. Then i found out that this version is not yet fully ready and there a lot of mistakes and learned that all SNG players use the first version of this program. Then i downloaded the SNG Wizard 1 and saw that he was really better. I've been using for over 5 months and it's a really cool program. I recommend you download it and use up until the second version will not be fully prepared.

Good luck at the tables!

S-G
 
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Wed Nov 27, 2013, 05:12 PM
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Hey Snake-Glory, thanks for the tip!!


Now that you mention it, SNG Wiz 2 has been super buggy, but it never occurred to me that the results might be different from SNG Wiz 1 - yikes!

Just downloaded SNG Wiz 1 and am going to look over all the results before playing some more. It's gotten really dark, cold, and snowy in Canada, so it's gotten to be that time of year where that kind of thing starts to be super fun


Hope the variance turns around for you soon!!
 
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Thu Nov 28, 2013, 11:14 PM
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Hey, so it looks like dropping down stakes was a +EV move - have been playing the hyper-turbo satties to the Big/Hot $5.50 and the Big $3.30, and things seem to be going better ... if you only look at the yellow line




Not sure how accurate that yellow line is for telling what our 'true' profits ought to be, but you think maybe it might be an indicator of whether our decisions are going in the right direction? Guess the only way to know for sure'll be to keep playing, so ... guess I'll keep playing ...


Am hoping to use any profits I make from playing these hyper-turbos to fund MTTs on the weekends, so it would be nice if there eventually are some profits lol ... will see have to see how it goes ...
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 12:31 AM
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Since: Oct 2011
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Looks like you're running bad with coinflips. Unfortunately, no amount of studying can help with that.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Nov 29, 2013, 07:48 AM
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Yeah, probably it's flips and stuff, same as with cash games - guess I could go back through the HH and double-check to be sure ... or not - too lazy lol

 
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Sun Dec 01, 2013, 10:31 AM
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So here's my graph for the first week of playing satties to try and fund my weekend tourney play - went on a massive heater this morning, just as all the casuals were signing up to try and win seats to the Hot $5.50 and wound up in the green ... for now - it's probably downhill from here ...




Guess I made enough to play one of the double-vision Sunday Storms, but might just keep playing and hope that I'm still in the plus next week for the big Sunday Storm with the $1mil guarantee. Have been in this prolonged downswing at the zoom tables for like the past 40,000 hands, so those always have me feeling a bit nitty with the bankroll. Also, there's a one-day sale on Crayola at Michael's the craft store, and wanted to get some stuff for my nephews for Christmas. You think that stuff goes on sale all the time? Hope it's not one of those 'sales' where they raise the price before they discount it, and it's not really as good a deal as it sounds.

Anyways ... looking forward to next week's Storm - am really liking these hyper-turbos on the side as a way to fund tourneys - am thinking I'll probably wind up putting more effort into trying a little harder to be patient at the tourney tables now that I've had to work so hard to earn the buy-in.


Hope everyone's having a nice day
 
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Sun Dec 01, 2013, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Also, there's a one-day sale on Crayola at Michael's the craft store, and wanted to get some stuff for my nephews for Christmas. You think that stuff goes on sale all the time? Hope it's not one of those 'sales' where they raise the price before they discount it, and it's not really as good a deal as it sounds.
Got these markers for $3.40 - am thinking that once they're wrapped in some festive paper, with a bow on top, it ought to look like I paid at least $6



The stores were really busy, but it looks like most people are still shopping for themselves at this point. You know when the stores seem to be less crowded is like, Dec. 24th between 5pm and 6pm - not so much of a struggle to find parking then lol.

Just some random thoughts on holiday shopping ... anyways .....

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Dec 01, 2013 at 03:56 PM..
 
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Sun Dec 01, 2013, 04:10 PM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Graph is heading in the right direction but turn the CNet off. No point dwelling on things you can't control.

I look at my own CNet (Luck adjusted winnings) when I lose, knowing I made no mistakes, but the bottom line is your bottom dollar. I think my biggest moments of tilt are when I call cards home to lose.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 07:51 AM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Hey Ovalman

What games are you playing now? I remember reading that you were giving limit cash a go for a while, but with this being Golden SNG Week, do you have big plans to mass multi-table and aim for the leaderboards, and hopefully catch some nice bonus prizes? So awesome that you're able to multi-table - that's something I've never been able to do. Hopefully you're not in a downswing right now, and the promo will attract some interest from more casual players?


After submitting that question to Jared Tendler, you know what, I haven't had much tilt any more. Like all the beats are still there, but ... guess Mr. Tendler taught me how to better deal with them? There's still like 'mini-tilt' every once in a while, but sitting out for 5-10 minutes or taking a break for a couple of hours seems to do the trick - it's not nearly as bad as before?

Also, since this is just my side hobby, like $40 is 4 buy-ins of my regular game - so even if the numbers were reliable, it's not an amount that's unusual for me to see I guess?

The line's kind of important to keep in for now though I think, because like 99% of the hands for these 10bb hyper-turbos are all-ins, so like it helps to see if the chips are going in in good spots? To only look at the green line, you can't necessarily tell. And SNG Wizard keeps telling me to shove wider, although it's seeming like they're assigning ranges to people that are a lot tighter/wider than they actually are, so maybe once I go back and override the numbers their recommendations might wind up being different? Have been meaning to check that out. Still learning

Nice to hear from you!! Thanks for stopping by!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 07:57 AM..
 
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Mon Dec 02, 2013, 07:54 AM
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There was an interesting blog in the 'Blog' section of the site from rez71 about playing SNG hyper-turbos :

100 $1.50 Hyper sit and go

Forgot that the SNG ones are eligible for the SNG Leaderboard prizes. But I don't know how to play those - but if there's others who do, it must be pretty exciting to have this be Golden SNG Week to boot - GL GL to anyone taking a shot at the leaderboards!!
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 08:35 PM
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Posts: 8,291
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Another blog alert for anyone who's missed the blogs Sandtrap's been doing on how he's been spending some of his poker winnings - they're really fun to read since he's been making enough at the tables to buy way more just the occasional entry to the Sunday Storm and some 40% off markers for his relatives (which is about all I'll be able to afford from these hyper-turbos once my heater self-corrects lol)


Sandtrap blog #1 - Mr. and Mrs. Sandtrap go on a cruise around the Mediterranean



Sandtrap blog #2 - Mr. and Mrs. Sandtrap go all out for the holidays (so lovely! )




Thought those were really fun to see - thanks for sharing, Sandtrap!

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Dec 04, 2013 at 08:38 PM..
 
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Wed Dec 04, 2013, 09:16 PM
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Nataraj1's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 573
There's a cool ICM calculator when you replay all hands for a final table in PT4 to review offline sessions: it's in Options -> Launch Final Table ICM Calculator.

I've used it a few times after reviewing a few sessions where I did well in SNGs. It was fun to see that most of the ICM actions recommended were what I had chosen, except a couple of places (one was something like shoving J8s).

[Edit]: when you replay and it's your turn, you'll see a small green rectangle with ICM in it. If you click this, you get PT4's ICM recommendation, but make sure you configure the Calculator payout structure correctly beforehand for the game you played.

I just lost by pushing A9o, but the ICM says I did well. Bankroll up by finishing 3rd. Yeah!

Last edited by Nataraj1; Thu Dec 05, 2013 at 12:10 AM..
 
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Thu Dec 05, 2013, 07:21 AM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Hey nataraj, thanks so much for stopping by with the great tip!!

Haven't checked out the PokerTracker ICM feature in a while, but it sounds like they've added a lot of features - will have to play around with it later and see how it compares to SNG Wizard - should be fun!!

Cool to hear your bankroll's on the up, and that A9o was the right move, despite the outcome
 

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