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fold set?

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fold set? - Mon Sep 02, 2013, 05:40 AM
(#1)
lyoung911's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 14
I played this hand today in a FR 2NL Zoom session. I had no reads on any of the villains yet

With three callers on this flop, I was planning to just check-fold, but with this turn plans obviously changed. Should I have gotten away from this after the villain 3bet the turn?

Last edited by lyoung911; Mon Sep 02, 2013 at 05:59 AM..
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 08:38 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
No. Shove when he 3bs the turn. No point leaving money behind.
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 08:41 AM
(#3)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
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Hi lyoung,

I think I would have cbet OTF given you raised from UTG as it would be easy to represent Ax. However, having checked OTF, I would have preferred a call OTT rather than a Raise with f/ & s/draws out there & would re-evaluate OTR.

As played, I think it is a shove or fold decision OTT as you only have $0.16 left behind... Its close, but I favour a fold here when faced with a 3bet.

Good luck

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Sep 03, 2013 at 04:10 PM..
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 09:26 AM
(#4)
GpersCreeper's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 3
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Yeah, to me was an easy fold (though I understand folding a set is hard). Agree a cbet would have been preferable than a check post flop as you were giving drawing hands a free card. Yes, there were overcards but you could have got away from the hand before you made your set then. And when he bet the turn, you should have flat called, not 3bet, as at that point he had the nuts (surely the T was a scare card for you??). Overall though, the texture of that board would have forced me to fold (albeit begrudgingly...)
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 10:06 AM
(#5)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Not continuating betting the flop is the correct play here. Our Hero has 2 outs when called and faces 3 other opponents on an Ace-queen flop, which is likely to have hit at least one of them an overwhelming amount of the time.

As a result we cannot make a profitable continuation bet.

I would not raise the turn, but rather call the bet. Once we raise the turn we reopen the action and create the situation we do. Should we raise the turn, we have to go with the hand. I would rather call and keep my opponents ranges wide. Sure we give draws a free card, but we also give ourselves a chance to collect money from AX behind as well as QJ/KQ/JT type hands, and to fill up should we be behind on the turn, which is more often than you would think.
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 10:33 AM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by garethc23 View Post
not continuating betting the flop is the correct play here. Our hero has 2 outs when called and faces 3 other opponents on an ace-queen flop, which is likely to have hit at least one of them an overwhelming amount of the time.

As a result we cannot make a profitable continuation bet.

I would not raise the turn, but rather call the bet. Once we raise the turn we reopen the action and create the situation we do. Should we raise the turn, we have to go with the hand. I would rather call and keep my opponents ranges wide. Sure we give draws a free card, but we also give ourselves a chance to collect money from ax behind as well as qj/kq/jt type hands, and to fill up should we be behind on the turn, which is more often than you would think.
this ^^^^
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 11:54 AM
(#7)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post
Not continuating betting the flop is the correct play here. Our Hero has 2 outs when called and faces 3 other opponents on an Ace-queen flop, which is likely to have hit at least one of them an overwhelming amount of the time.

As a result we cannot make a profitable continuation bet.
Hi Gareth,

Is it not possible that both the SB & BB would call with a wider range simply because they were getting the right price & then fold to a cbet on an A high flop?

The one I would be concerned about would be Villain 7, but then again what's to stop them taking a stab at the pot (IP) after all 3 [incl. original raiser] check OTF & then we have little option but to x/f [with 2 outs].

If we took the initiative & cbet do we not have more options:

1). b/f Vs 2bet OTF
2). If called by one or more... we have the option to x/c or x/f OTT
3). We fill up OTR & stack off

Welcome your thoughts / comments?

BR Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 12:37 PM..
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 01:23 PM
(#8)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Prodigy237, IMO you shouldn't be thinking on how likely is for you to take the pot right now (which is unlikely)and think more on playing your equity, which is very little with TT on AQ high board with a flush and straight draw vs 3 players, also your 2 outs arent clean, the Td completes the flush and straight and the other T a straight. You shouldnt invest much on a hand that you are unlikely to win.

When you cbet, the hands that call you will have you drawing to 2 outs, or drawing with a lot of equity vs TT,K and J high flush draws have a lot of outs against you. On the best situation you will be ahead vs small flush draws, but when you compare the few diamond combinations vs all the Ax, Qx, that could have called from SB and BB, the middle and small flush draws arent that big of a % of their range. Also nothing worst will call you, you think 99 its calling your bet vs 3 players here?,so not much value on betting.

I will just check all the way and hope for a cheap showdown, and by cheap i mean free or almost free.

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Mon Sep 02, 2013 at 01:47 PM.. Reason: adding
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 05:25 PM
(#9)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hi Carlos,

I agree with all your comments, but all I was trying to say is having raised from UTG it is not inconceivable that we would doing so with a fairly narrow range on a FR table and this would include AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQs... all of which I would cbet OTF & charge draws. Granted if we get raised / called we can fold or try check it down as cheaply as possible.

That said, I also accept the average player at 2NL is not thinking about ranging opponents, equity, bet sizing etc... so it would not be a standard line I would take in a m/w pot and very much opponent dependent.

BR

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 12:46 PM..
 
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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 05:32 PM
(#10)
Mikey_Luggs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
I am playing 2NL and winning at over 20bb/100. I may play allot wrong and still have allot to learn but at these stakes I think you should only be checking the flop against that many opponents then just flatting on the turn.
When you get raised on the turn it's KJ nearly 100% at these stakes. If I get raised in that spot I am just looking at the odds for making a boat as more often than not they will stack off if you hit it on the river. Not many players at 2NL who can fold a str8 on the river once the FH completes and they have invested a good chunk of their stack already
 
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Tue Sep 03, 2013, 12:23 AM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigy237 View Post
Hi Carlos,

I agree with all your comments, but all I was trying to say is having raised from UTG it is not inconceivable that we would doing so with a fairly narrow range on a FR table and this would include AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQs... all of which I would cbet OTF & charge draws. Granted if we get 3bet / called we can fold or try check it down as cheaply as possible.

That said, I also accept the average player at 2NL is not thinking about ranging opponents, equity, bet sizing etc... so it would not be a standard line I would take in a m/w pot and very much opponent dependent.

BR

Tony [aka Prodigy237]
Hi Tony,

Firstly we can't get 3b if we c-bet, it would be a raise (2b)... so I may be misunderstanding you, sorry of that's the case.

While what you said about our UTG range is true, the point is that you are trying to represent to leverage fold equity, but if a villain has an ace, or some big draw like KTd/KJd/JTd they are not folding. With 3 villains having called an UTG raise it's very likely someone has a decent ace. So our chances to c-bet and get 3 folds are small, and our equity when called is very poor with only 2 outs to improve and no really good turn barreling cards. When both fold equity and hand equity are very low, and there's very little chance to improve hand equity on the turn, we shouldn't be c-betting.

In general, c-betting a miss like this into 3 opponents is lighting money on fire, at any stake level.

That doesn't mean we should never c-bet a miss into 3 players, but it should be much rarer generally speaking. An example of where I would c-bet a miss into 3 players would be a hand like Td9d on an 8d2c2s flop... the difference here is that fold equity on the flop is larger than in the OP's hand, and when we get called the callers range will be heaving in weak 1 pair hands, 8x and 33-77, which means we have a ton of good turn barreling cards to put pressure on those pairs. Any diamond or 9+ we can bet either through improved hand equity or as a scare card to the small pair.


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Tue Sep 03, 2013, 04:21 AM
(#12)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi Tony,

Firstly we can't get 3b if we c-bet, it would be a raise (2b)... so I may be misunderstanding you, sorry of that's the case.
Hi Dave,

Sorry, I meant raise (2b)... & ty [& Carlos] for your comments / feedback.

Much appreciated.

BR Tony [aka Prodigy237]
 
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Tue Sep 03, 2013, 12:48 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi Tony,

No worries. You've got the right idea, if we get called/raised we should shut it down/give up unimproved... the thing is with 3 opponents calling our UTG raise pre, on an AQx board we will get called too often to make c-betting profitable.

I think people sometimes get caught up with the notion that we will look "weak" somehow if we raise pre then check/fold the flop. But our hand IS actually very weak here... we have 3rd pair in a 4 way pot with little chance to improve. It's ok to check and fold.


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