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$EV in a STT

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$EV in a STT - Mon Sep 02, 2013, 01:15 PM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
If the right amount of luck was on your side this should equal what you won but what if the number is higher or lower?

My net winnings for today is $42 but my $EV winnings say $55.99. Does that mean I'm luckier or unluckier. I know all that matters is your bottom line but can anyone clear up this term for me?


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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 01:45 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
The EV winnings stat is derived from situations in which you (or your opponent) are all in before the river. It's probably best illustrated with an example.

Let's assume you have 100bb and go all in with AA vs KK. In this spot, you are "expected" to win about 82% of the time. What actually happens in that one specific hand is you either win or lose. You win 100% of the pot, or 0% of the pot. Since you "expect" to win the pot 82% of the time, then losing it means you ran way below EV for that one hand. If your aces hold vs kings, then you ran above expectation. You were a big favourite, but you only "expected" to win 82% of the pot, but you actually won 100% of the pot.

In tracking software, all your called all in situations are calculated according to your equity in the pot. If you "owned" 82% of a 200bb pot, then you had 164bb of equity. So if you won the entire 200bb, you were 36bb above EV. When your EV winnings are higher than your actual winnings, then you won less than expected. If your EV winnings are lower than actual winnings, then you won more than expected.

For your session today, you might like to say "I expected to win $55.99, but only won $42, so I was unlucky", but I think it's a mistake to focus on variance like this in the short-run. Depending on the stakes you play, your "runbad" could be due to just a couple of hands. After all, there's nothing you can do to control how much luck you have once all the money goes in.
Over a larger sample, you might take some comfort from knowing you're running below EV, but it's probably best if you never look at the EV numbers at all. Although all in pots have a significant effect on your bankroll, there is all kinds of hidden variance that can't be shown by lines on the graph.


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Mon Sep 02, 2013, 01:57 PM
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Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I just wasn't sure if my luck adjusted winnings were supposed to be higher or lower. Many thanks Arty, cleared that up.


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