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AA 25nl zoom, 3bet pot vs 2, monotone flop, turned a set

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AA 25nl zoom, 3bet pot vs 2, monotone flop, turned a set - Wed Sep 04, 2013, 11:21 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
vs 21/18/1,2 AF 12,9 3bet, 33 fold to 3bet 72 hands.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($38.94)
BB ($33.33)
UTG ($25)
MP ($16.23)
CO ($15.41)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
1 fold, MP raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.20, SB calls $2.10, 1 fold, MP calls $1.45

Flop: ($6.85) 8, 4, J (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($15.85) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ....

So whats the best play? I felt like if i bet any amount to charge any flush draw i would be commited and if i shove i get snapped by the nuts. Check and give a free card to flush draws and get us a chance to make a FH in case we are behind?
 
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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 12:28 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Carlos,

I think when villain calls the flop he's going to have a big spade a great deal of the time. The ace of spades is still unaccounted for, so it's not impossible for him to have a hand like AsQx and have just turned top pair. He is pretty passive thus far post flop with an AF of 1.2 (very small sample size for this though) so he may well not raise a flush draw as a bluff.

I see no reason to give a free card other than to induce river bluffs, but I think that's very unlikely here. I wish we had bet the flop more like 5.50 so that if we get called we can shove blank river cards (not counting on the 1 card that hits us and doesn't make a 4 flush on the board). Always try to plan ahead.

I think we can bet like 9 and call a shove, folding to a spade river if he jams it, or just move it all in is fine as well if we're worried about the possible river decisions. The big turn bet will get called by the ace of spades I'm sure, so it's a nice option.

You seem somewhat worried he's flopped a flush... which flush draw combos do you have in his range here? What suited spades is he cold calling a 3b from OOP with? AK, probably 4-betting since he tends to go aggressive preflop. AsQs. The Js is on the board. AsTs seems like a pretty fishy cold call pre as does KsQs and any worse spade combos. So there's really only one hand that's a big concern, AQ. Maybe KQss so we can give him 2 combos. TsTx is possible here, AQo with a big spade, maybe sometimes unsuited AK. JJ waiting for a safe turn to check-raise us for some reason. 88 or 44 that set mined pre and are slow playing the flop despite it being monotone as well. We're ahead of most of his range now, and the few combos we're behind we still have 10 outs to draw out on.


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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 09:58 AM
(#3)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks Dave, think im being result oriented, but you are right there aren't many flush draws on his range and shouldn't worry much about it. I shoved and showed me AsKs, now the reason to post this hand is to see if there was another play that would be better to keep his range a bit wider. I like the $9 bet you said to accomplish that, and on a river spade its an easy fold. A couple of questions if you dont mind, If we bet $9.00 on turn and get check-reaised do we ever fold? If he calls and donks on a blank river for our $9 behind, do we call?
 
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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 10:22 AM
(#4)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hi Carlos [& Dave]

I am sure I read the probability of hitting a made flush OTF was something like 118-1 or 0.85%, so whilst it looks a scary board it is unusual & somewhat unlucky.

I like Dave's suggestion of the bet OTT, leaving call or shoving non spade OTR, but as played shoving top set OTT is also good (IMO).

Good luck

Tony

Last edited by Prodigy237; Thu Sep 05, 2013 at 10:43 AM..
 
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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 10:39 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
If we bet $9.00 on turn and get check-reaised do we ever fold? If he calls and donks on a blank river for our $9 behind, do we call?
Considering that this will often be the ace of spades (sometimes with or without another spade) I am not folding.


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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 10:59 AM
(#6)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
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Hi Dave,

As a matter of interest... If Villain were to x/r OTF would you call x/r & re-evaluate OTT or simply get the money in OTF?

BR

Tony
 
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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 04:34 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigy237 View Post
Hi Dave,

As a matter of interest... If Villain were to x/r OTF would you call x/r & re-evaluate OTT or simply get the money in OTF?

BR

Tony
Neither, I think it's a pretty straight forward bet/fold on the flop vs. a villain who is generally passive post flop. He's unlikely to be semi-bluffing a draw or playing QQ this way, so I expect to get shown a flush or set pretty often here. We have no cards that improve us really save for the ace of hearts. And we can't call and re-evaluate due to our remaining stack size.

It stinks folding AA with a low stack to pot ratio (3.3) but I don't think we can be profitable getting the money in vs a passive post flop guy who's taking a strong aggressive action since we have such terrible equity vs. the majority of his c/r range. We would really need a read that he c/r draws and worse 1 pair hands quite a bit to stack it off imo. If we had the As then of course we can rip it in, the difference being we have a lot more equity now vs. all the hands ahead of us.


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Thu Sep 05, 2013, 05:22 PM
(#8)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hi Dave,

Thanks as always for your feedback... much appreciated.

BR

Tony
 

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