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+EV stack off on the flop with jest Ace high there must be a better way

+EV stack off on the flop with jest Ace high there must be a better way - Fri Sep 06, 2013, 02:04 AM
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30

Player 1

hands = 68
vpip = 33
pfr = 20
3 bet = 8.3

As played this is a +EV call we need 20%

With the flat call of the 4 bet it think he is pair heavy

AA + KK will 5 bet jam

So range 22-QQ AQ+

Put that range into poker stove and we get 36 .8%

Jest pairs 22-QQ = 24.4%

Jest bigger pairs TT-QQ = 27.9%

I really hate stacking off with jest ace high

There must be a better way to play the hand ?


1 - flat call 3 bet check fold flop
2 - 4 bet check fold flop
3 - 4 bet jam v mid stacks
4 - c bet all in on flop

Feel free to and more options

Option 2 looks the best to me or lower variance option 1

Last edited by I AM XXXX; Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 02:08 AM..
Fri Sep 06, 2013, 04:42 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306

I would prefer 4betting AKs OOP here instead of flat calling a 3bet. If we are IP we can go both ways I think, but here we benefit from a 4bet for two reasons: 1. we don't have to play the rest of the hand OOP without initiative 2. against villains 3betting frequency we can also get some hands to fold and other hands to stack off in which we will have good equity and expected value against.

Given that, I think I would have gone for a 22bb 4bet.

What happened in the hand is the least frequent occurrence which we do not like when we miss the flop. I think villain's 4bet calling range here would be slow played AA sometimes, and hands that are strong to 3bet but not strong enough to get in preflop in their mind like JJ-88. Occasionally you'll find someone calling a 4bet with Axs or AQo but its rare.

So coming to the flop, we have 40% equity at best against { 50% AA, JJ/TT, 70% 99/88, 50% AQ, AJs-A7s }
I think KK/QQ would be less inclined to slow play because the hands look strong and fear to see an Ace OTF and get confused what to do.

When we bet, their continuation range will be: AA, JJ-88, and A9s. Against that range we actually have 17% equity so folding would be better than stacking off assuming our ranging is close to being true that is.

If we shove, we need them to fold 58% of the time to pick up the pot.
Villain starts with 30 combos and they will fold 10 combos of Ace highs or 34% of the time which means by shoving we are folding out all the hands that we beat and getting called by the hands that beat us.
So when we check we keep all the Ax hands in that we can stack off if its checked back and an Ace comes OTT. Also our hands has some SD value, and when they bet we can fold. Although they might bluff us off the best hand, but I think its okay to get bluffed here and give up our 40% equity. But sometimes we will be x/r AA here too so villain might be reluctant to bluff if they don't have anything. So yea I think option 2 looks more attractive.
Fri Sep 06, 2013, 07:52 AM
P.Fergus's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 1
XXXX, you get re-raised preflop with AK, , generally the best play is to fold.

especially OOP and not shortstacked.

Your opponents HUD stats that you have shown don't give any reason to do otherwise.
Fri Sep 06, 2013, 08:03 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Once you made the cbet you cant fold

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