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$1.50 Fifty/50 Bubble

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$1.50 Fifty/50 Bubble - Fri Sep 06, 2013, 12:43 PM
(#1)
Affluenza's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...759_802E65508D

He was playing 53/3 over 63 hands.... Not really sure what to do here but I assume it was a good fold with him in first chips and me in second. I think he was very strong here?

I obviously can't flat the overbet on flop, its either a shove or fold. Not sure why I decided to just limp after him.

Thanks
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 12:48 PM
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**moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 01:17 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
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Hi Affluenza,

I think it's a pretty clear fold. Although you haven't shared post flop stats/reads (and it's a post flop decision), 53/3 indicates super loose/passive in general. Players like that don't bet hard with top pair/ok kicker like QJ/KJ, they check/call it, and they check/call draws as well. So it seems very likely we are behind here, and would rate to have very low equity against his flop over betting range in general. That coupled with the event situation (2nd biggest stack on the bubble of a Fifty50, vs. the one stack who can bust us) makes this an easy pass for me.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 01:28 PM
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Since: May 2013
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A min raise preflop would've been enough to isolate your opponent but it turns out that the BB wasn't interested in the pot anyway so now you have the two biggest stacks heads-up. It's scary, isn't it, and not very well-played if you end up cashing $0 after having the second biggest stack worth over two buy-ins. Now the big stack knows this and takes full advantage of the situation. So whatever shows up on the flop, you should expect big and scary bets from the big stack. If you're going to be scared of those then simply don't play against the big stack and fold pre-flop. Or if not, play carefully and aggressively to show them that you're not scared of their big bets.

You've got the position and you've got the hand. They may have overbet with a J because of the possible straight draws on the board. Maybe they had one too? (QJ, J9, KQ) Maybe they flopped a two-pair or a set? What I'd be worried about is that when the chip leader limps in UTG, they might want action against their AA, KK, or QQ. Then the possible straight draws on the flop scare them and they no longer want to slow play their monster so they overbet. Just curious: did they often raise preflop to steal the blinds? If they did, that limping action would be even scarier.

Folding here costs 200 chips which is fairly cheap. Maybe you need a stronger starting hand than AJ against the chip leader because the action gets too scary even after flopping the top pair with the top kicker.
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 03:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
Just curious: did they often raise preflop to steal the blinds? If they did, that limping action would be even scarier
The answer's no. They raised preflop 2 times and called 33 times (info was given).

Quote:
Now the big stack knows this and takes full advantage of the situation. So whatever shows up on the flop, you should expect big and scary bets from the big stack.
I agree with this and what you said in general vs. a competent opponent, but I think this is giving too much credit to a guy playing 53/3.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 04:59 PM
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Since: May 2013
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I see. I don't read those numbers so well but I'll try. They limp (=call or check?) 53% and raise 3% and fold the rest? If that's right you wouldn't expect them to bluff in that hand...
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 05:07 PM
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53/3 means that they play 53% of pots and only raise 3% of the time... so they're very loose/passive. I wouldn't be expecting many bets or raises out of them.. only calls. When they do bet or raise, it's probably a big hand.

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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 08:18 PM
(#8)
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VPIP, voluntarily put $ in pot... it doesn't include checking his BB option. So he voluntarily puts chips in preflop 53% of the time, but does so raising only 3% of the time. Super loose-passive. No, I don't expect super passive guys to make big bluffs, that's completely outside of their nature.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 09:28 PM
(#9)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Ah I see the numbers were VPIP/PFR, two abbreviations new to me. I can feel my poker literacy improving here. Thanks!

I don't usually play loose/passive but it takes you to the money in the league tourneys and now I see someone got the chip lead in a Fifty50 that way. Interesting.
 
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Sat Sep 07, 2013, 05:22 PM
(#10)
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Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 139
Thank you guys! Seemed like an easy fold.
Affluenza
 

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