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ICM decision 18 Man SnG

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ICM decision 18 Man SnG - Fri Sep 06, 2013, 01:25 PM
(#1)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Bubble play, 4 paid.

SB shoves into hero;






Link : http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/5200/56kl.png

What's my play in BB?


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Last edited by Ovalman; Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 01:26 PM.. Reason: strange alignement
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 01:41 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi Oval!

My first instinct is to snap-call, but let's see what ICM says.

The first thing that I see is that the SB should be shoving here 100% of the time (ATC).

To call the SB's shove, here is the range that I get 18.4%, 55+ A4s+ A7o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+

AKo is well within this range, so I'm calling.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 01:41 PM
(#3)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
I would call without thinking twice but I would also expect to hear different opinions. There's always the risk of losing but if you win, you'll steal the blinds the next round or two or maybe more, and after that you don't need much luck to get your 1st place finish.

I could also ask SitnGo Wizard but I don't think I can right now as long as I've got tournaments running.
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 02:47 PM
(#4)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I cheated on this hand and why I only gave a screen grab. I have permission from its original owner, a high stakes pro Chilindude. I thought it was a snap call as well.

Here's the original hand

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...671_9B1514B0ED

Chilin done the maths and says it's a marginal fold. I had a bit of discussion with him on Twitter with this hand and thought it was a good spot in mind for the forum and ICM.

We don't have any stats on villain but stats don't matter here because villain can push any 2 cards in this spot and it's +EV. After I thought about what he said I understand his thinking if not his maths.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 03:06 PM
(#5)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I don't have any idea why would he fold there.
It's not like there is a huge bubble factor here, so without taking into account any ICM numbers, I think this is always a call.
I guess with ICM the call will be slightly +EV, but we are dominating a part of his shoving range.
Such a nit chilin_dude is!

Last edited by GamblingProp; Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 03:13 PM..
 
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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 03:29 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hey Oval,

The screenshot is wrong, if you're editing info be very careful to get it right.

The screenshot shows the blinds at 600/1200 which makes a huge difference. The boom player link shows the blinds are really 300/600. I ran this through ICM first giving the villain a 21% range and we should only call with QQ+ vs. that range. If I put in a villain range of 100% (ATC), ICM says our call range should be 88+ only. AKo is -.98%. So yeah, in his actually hand folding is the optimal play.

The other responses you got were also accurate, based on the erroneous blinds of 600/1200/75... at that blind level vs. a 100% shoving range ICM says we do best by calling off with (6.6%) 77+,ATs+,AQo+.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 06:59 PM
(#7)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Epic fail

But like you my initial thought were call every time so there's more to ICM that meets the eye.


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Fri Sep 06, 2013, 08:09 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
There's certainly some ICM spots that are counter-intuitive, but in this case everyone's initial thought was right, with the info presented... at the 600-1200 blind level it's an ICM call.


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Sat Sep 07, 2013, 06:51 AM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
I would never call with 22-99 in this spot but essentially that's what we're doing with AK.

I know Chilin plays 20+ at a time so it was a very disciplined fold. My gut reaction is to insta call here but Chilin gave me something to think about so I shared it with the forum.

I've just checked HEM2 and I've just 11 spots where I'm in the exact same position but only 1 where the chip stacks are similar but it's decisions like this that can define a winning or losing player.

BTW it was good play by villain. Keep pressure on the little stacks and keep building that stack. If Chilin calls in this spot and wins we've still a healthy stack to do something with.

I won a MTT on another site the other night because from 7 out everyone was limping for a top 4 spot. My steal stat was 60%+, I just bullied and min raise + 50 chips stole every time. If someone played back then it was an easy instant fold.


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