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2 tough deep stacked folds on the flop are you calling or folding

2 tough deep stacked folds on the flop are you calling or folding - Fri Sep 06, 2013, 10:12 PM
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30

player 4

hands = 568
vpip = 19
pfr = 16
wining reg

player 1

hands = 15
vpip = 33
pfr = 7
3 bet = 14.3 sample to small but looks fishy

when player 1 re raises all in 178bb we have give him a range

made flush small?
nut flush draw

most likely

v made flush we have 34.4%
v nut flush draw we have 71.7%

we need 46%

are you calling or folding

hand 2

player 4

hands = 722
vpip = 17
pfr = 13
3 bet = 2,7
c bet = 57
re raise flop = 5

player 6

hands = 16
vpip = 25
pfr = 13

this action on the flop screams set over set

if we give them both a set we have 36.8%

we need 36% less if player 6 calls

are you calling or folding ?
Sat Sep 07, 2013, 12:08 AM
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hand 2 is an easy call.

Hand 1 I think is harder but I would also call. I fold bottom set though.

Your price in hand 2 is too good. There is too much money in the pot.

In hand 1 you are never drawing dead. Sure you only have 34% v a made flush, but any other hand, particularly undersets and top two, you have dead. So that's going to offset your mediocre equity versus the made flush portion of his range.
Sun Sep 08, 2013, 11:49 PM
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30
Thank you Gareth for your answer but i have to disagree with you

Hand 1 is the easier call

We may be in front with a set right now and only losing 12% over the long run v a made flush

So if he does not have a flush more then 12% of the time we are wining in the long run

Hand 2

There is no way we are in front with ace high at this point

I have 39 bb in the pot

I have to call 255 bb 6.5 times what i have in the pot to win 691 or 779 bb if player 6 calls before rake { Nice pot if we win }

But this is a very high variance play jest to break even in the long run

If we give jest player 2 a set and player 6 and a random hand we drop to 33.6%

I think i would rather give up 39 bb every time than take the high variance jest to break even at best

In deep stack spots like this i want to be the one with top set and take the high variance to win big over the long run
Mon Sep 09, 2013, 12:04 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Hand 2 is a call with the money invested and the fact that we are guaranteed to have enough equity to call in the worst case scenario. If you can't handle the variance then you shouldn't be playing with such a deep stack.
Mon Sep 09, 2013, 12:18 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)

I have just finished replying to your other thread titled your biggest leak, where you state:

I have a problem folding to all in jams on the flop with a good one pair hand
And now I read this, which has given me some insight into one of your big problems:

Originally Posted by I AM XXXX View Post
Hand 2

There is no way we are in front with ace high at this point...
The problem (and it's a common one, you are not alone) is that you're thinking about hands in terms if immediate hand strength, and not equities. That leads to a lot of mistakes. For instance, the statement there is no way we are in front with ace high at this point... if we call the shove and the villain flips up 2 red queens, would you say "see, I told you we were behind!"... because against that holding we will win the pot 56% of the time with 2 cards to come still... we are the favorite... so who is behind there?

That's just an example of what's wrong with that statement, but that's not the point. The statement itself is the key evidence that the modality of thought is misdirected. "We only have ace high, so we can not be ahead". Yes our hand strength right now is ace high, but we still have 2 cards to come if we call, and we have 12 outs to the nuts plus 2 overcards which may be good sometimes as well... which is how we can be a favorite to win over 2 red queens. And it's to the point Gareth and birdayy are making... we have pretty good equity with this holding on this flop. Even in our worst case scenario we have reasonable equity.

Contrast this with the other thread. Those are examples of "made hands" (top/top or overpairs) and you're inclined to call off with those because your hand is made. Yet when we get our stack in with an overpair vs. a set we are in an extremely low equity situation.

In the AsKs hand, even against top set, you have 34% equity.
In the AA hand against 6's full, you have half of that, just under 17%.

Granted there is a ranging question in the AA hand, again that's not the point... the point is because you are thinking in terms of straight hand value and not equity, it's leading you to be willing to stack off in some potentially very poor equity situations, and fold some situations where your equity can never be that bad.

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