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% Percentages % I want % but am confused

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% Percentages % I want % but am confused - Sun Sep 08, 2013, 10:42 PM
(#1)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
Hi guys and gals

I have been thinking about the following for a while now and its 3 questions (all related) and am goign to try to explain my predicament (kind of sorted some of this out in the past in my head but need a refresher

ok bear with me confused on what im asking lol not a good start

its not a hand analysis persay its odds as % and Equity as %

I set the hand up then type the 3 questions relating to this hand

Im in the big blind with 7d9d(suited) with stack of 4030 after posting big blind of 30 forget its the bubble i just want first 2 questions answered as % please and any answer to Q3 be good

1 limper stack of 4085 before limping other 2 fold so were headsup so the pot is 75 chips

flop is 8hJs2c

Q1 in % what are my pot odds if he bets 75 ? (I think its 2/1 so 33% right ?)

Q2 geting bit trickier what is my hand equity again as a % please? (I know i have 4 clean outs so is it 4=8% ? im confused)

Q3 For me this is trickiest and does it depend on Q1 or 2 i just dunno Im not even goign to hazard a guess at this 1 but what are my implied odds please? and how do I calculate them on both the turn and river if you need to ?


Hope someone clever can answer and explain it to me and the school

Thank You
 
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Mon Sep 09, 2013, 01:15 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
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Hi rolo!

Hopefully, this will help.. although, I'm going to have to ask a couple ?'s myself, in order to get all of the numbers for you.

Q1: my pot odds are.... what I have to put into the pot, divided by what the pot will be after I put it in. The opp bets 75, so I need to put 75 chips into a pot that will be 225 (the 75 to start with, his 75 and my 75). My pot odds will be 75/225 = 33.3%

Q2: for this... I need to know how tight/loose the opp is, for an exact answer. What I need to do is to take my hand, the board and the opp's range and put it into pokerstove.. to get an accurate number.
I'll give some examples. If the opp is playing 10VPIP (10% of hands) then my hand's equity is 26.6%. If the opp is at 20VPIP, I'm at 26.7%. If the opp is at 40VPIP, I'm at 28.8%.

IF I assume that the opp has a J or overpair (won't always be the case), then I can use the quick estimation using my outs and the rule of 4 and 2. I have 4 outs to a straight (the four 10's). Each of these outs is worth 2% for each street. Therefore, my hand would be worth 4*2% or 8% to the turn.
If there would be no betting on the turn (we'd be all-in on the flop), then I can use 4% for each out, as I would be guaranteed to see both cards, so my hand would be worth 16%.
The key with using this rule is that I can only use 4% for each out if I can guarantee there will be no bets on the turn... which basically means that we'd be all-in on the flop.

Q3: For implied odds.. the key question is.. how often will the opp pay me off if I hit my hand??? If the opp is tight/passive, I won't have very much for implied odds at all. If the opp is loose/aggressive and would stack off to me with anything, then I could win up to the amount of my stack.. since my stack is the lowest of the two and is therefore the effective stack. Without knowing much more about the opp and how they play, this could be anything from 0 chips to their whole stack.

Hopefully this one will start a good discussion.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Sep 09, 2013, 02:39 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
John's given some great answers.

While I think it's crucial that you know how to count odds and outs, in order to get a rough idea of your equity, and you should compare that to pot odds and implied odds, there are some "shortcuts" that should become second nature.

Look at it is this way: You just have the idiot end of gutshot, you're out of position, and villain just potted it. With such a weak draw, being out of position, and faced with a decent sized bet, you're not in great shape. Your maximum implied winnings is villain's whole stack, but he's unlikely to get it all in unless he has something like top two or a set. I don't think you can make a profitable call here.

If you were in position, then calling with a gutterball is sometimes OK, as villain might give you a free card, and you'll be able to control the size of the pot (betting as a bluff sometimes, or checking behind) but generally speaking you should fold weak draws on the flop, especially if villain is betting more than half pot. Being a calling station that chases draws is not a profitable style.


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Mon Sep 09, 2013, 10:20 PM
(#4)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
Hi tyu2

Firstly let me say im so glad it didnt get moved to hand analysis forum as I dont think it i s that also I didnt know what hand/stacks/blinds/action to put so I kinda used a playmoney hand i was involved in but I did then change some things so as to make it easier for me to understand well I hope i did as that was my intentions

I will go get the reads - but basically I think in my head i wanted Axs and a nut flush draw so 9 outs clean or OEST so 8 outs so kept playing in play money and eventually thought oh this example will do

coolbeans at Q1 I kinda do it a different way but I do do it a correct way...getting 2/1 i add 1 to numerator sand reverse it so i know its 1/3=33%

Ok sorry I didnt include enough information but i didnt know until now lol so im glad you asked for extra info(I have it all this part im not making up but it was from play money game so numbers may seem odd/strange)

other guy was VP 44 PFR 6 after 16 hands so by my reckoning hes loose but not aggressive or passive?

steal was 0 fold to steal was 100%

his AF:1.4 WTSD 57% and won@showdown 25%

3bet was 0 and thats all i have on him besides M90.8 and bb=136.2

can you please answer Q2 and 3 again as im bit muddled...you get the opponents range from VP right?

ohh cool ty John I just did 10% in stove an d got sam e answer as u yayyyy progress
dam lol once i understand Q2 there may be a Q4

@Arty yes i see im just confused as i see the actual hand in my replayer but i must read the example i gave u lol

There may well be a Q5 now hope you can clarify Q2 and Q3 especially 3

right i wont be lazy an d just rely on you I wil us e stove to get my answer that way its practice and you can confirm any mistakes

versus VP 44% we have hand equity(Is that the right wording?) of 28.93%

so glad i got my original thoughts dow on paper as you have shown me what to be thinking about and how to utilise pokerstove

Its not really the hand im interested in here tbh its the principles of being able to calculate answers to the 3 questiosn in any hand and then utilise it to make a best decision

Thank You

rolo ps over on fulltilt after attending Daves set mining class got 22 floppe d2 guy had 99 and turn=9 wasnt pretty then lost flip Ak v JJ had been up 1 buyin finished down nearly 2 a manaic kept gettign good cards and he had position on me so due somerun good right pokergods
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 01:56 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
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Hey rolo!

for Q2.. if the opp is playing 44VPIP and limped pre, then I want to use 44% as their range in pokerstove. When I do so, I get 28.93% equity on the flop.

for Q3... he does have 57% WTSD, so I may have a chance to get some chips out of him if I hit, but he's not aggressive at all, so I wouldn't look for that high of implied odds unless they hit a part of the board.
Would it be enough to make up the -5%EV... maybe. It would make the flop call easier.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 04:12 PM
(#6)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
To be honest I think what exactly we are discussing is no more clear 5 posts in. I feel like you are essentially interested in whether it is worth calling the 75 that the villain bets on the flop after you check to him. And sensibly you are interested in your pot odds, ‘card odds’, equity on flop and implied odds?
So I will answer Q2 and Q3 with that in mind.

Q2: We are facing a bet on the flop so it is somewhat irrelevant that villain limps in 44% unless you think he bets pot with whole range. 16 hands is nothing in terms of reads, so I have nothing but a premature suggestion this guy is loose passive. Given we are facing the pot sized bet we have to judge what this means. Let’s say that villain would have raised JJ+ pre and would raise pot with top pair or better on the flop. Villain limps in J7+ (for sake of simplicity, it fits 44%), 88 and 22 and would pot only these hands on the flop. Stove tells me you have 18% equity versus villain’s range. Notice this is different to your ‘card outs’ you need a T to get ahead and have 4 outs – a little more than 8%. Equity is the percentage your hand will win on the river, ‘card odds’ are just percentage chance of catching your outs. Notice that if you included the river 4 outs x 4 < 18% because the equity will consider running trips and two pairs that may win vs opponents range.

Comparing this 18% to the 33% pot odds is incorrect as we may well face a bet on the turn. So comparing the 8% to the 33% immediate pot odds makes most sense.

You can only ever approximate the answer to this question as you have to assume the range villain has that will bet pot. A little like you have to assume what villain is limping in with from that position given all we know is their overall VPIP of 44% after a few hands.
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 04:46 PM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Implied odds can only ever be estimated, but try looking at it this way: With a gutshot, the odds against you hitting are over 10 to 1. That means that, to make a profitable call, you need to win more than 10 times the cost of calling (including the current pot size). Villain bet 75, so you need to win more than 750 chips in total. Since there's only 150 chips in the pot, it's unlikely you'll win more than 750, unless you hit the straight on the turn and can get a couple more pot-sized bets out of villain. Since it's pretty unlikely that will happen, you should fold your gutshot.


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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 06:34 PM
(#8)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Q3: If we had to approximate Q2 then get ready to super speculate when it comes to implied odds, ie how much can you expect to win if you do hit. More assumptions here as I don’t want to have to calculate too many things when the message is that implied odds are difficult to approximate. And essentially what Arty says is completely right and far simpler than going the long haul:

Let’s assume you called the 75 hoping to hit the T and extract some money out of villain. Pot is 225 effective stack remaining is 3955

8% of the time a T comes on the turn and let’s say you bet pot because of the range you put villain on.
1. When villain has two pair or better (34%) you get it in and around 90% of the time you win the big pot
2. When villain has top pair still (66%) they call your bet. 10% of the time they improve to two pair or trips and you win stack. Rest of the time lets say they call another pot sized bet and lose (I am ignoring their straight possibilities for ease).

92% of the time the turn does not hit you.
3. Let’s say that 85% it goes check bet and you lose the 75.
4. 7.5% it is checked through and villain wins.
5. 3.5% it is checked through and you hit your T on river and bet and get a fold
6. 4% it is checked through and you hit your T on river you bet pot and get a call.

This is overly simplified and demonstrates how complex it is to calculate implied odds even when you make your assumptions in terms of what villain does on various cards.
I calculated the overall expected return on your 75 chip call and only make it +37.5 given all above outcomes, so your 75 chip call is a losing proposition, far too often you miss turn and check fold.

It is just an approximation of what happens, maybe you win more, maybe you win less in some of the scenarios and by no means is my math super accurate, but I have a vague interest in this kind of decision path analysis. But hey, at least it is an attempt to try and answer the super difficult Q3!

This prolly doesn't help much
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 06:52 PM
(#9)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
Hi go t my run good cashed 2/2 but in second game HUa Brazilian disconnected for ages so felt bad butit wa s late blinds were huge game took an age so he enever cam eback so defualted to the win really had been me 9k him 3k then us both even and then him 9k me 3k when he dc...........in the cases when someone disconnects what should i do?

Do I have to wait ?...I even folded some bad hands(was this right?)...

Thanks everyone i appreciate all your thoughts and efforts

Before i thought of the questiosn I was hopign answers such as

Q1 X%
Q2 Y%
Q3 Z%

but now realsie that was stiupid of me

And its th e principles involved the thinking behind the decisions to then be able to apply it in any scenario as @first it obvious not to chase in this example unles s he sa huge fish plus it wa s only play money and bad habits creep in

cool @Jhon so 28.93%

so goign a bit further from Q1 i know ive got 33% umm not sure what u call it lets say odds of 2/1 =33% bet its called hand odds maybe and yet we only have ~ 29% pot equity so out immediate odds we shoudl fold right? as it costin us 33 and we only have 29 but now we have to see if implied odds help us make a play ?

See what i dont want to be doing is justifying thru implied odds all the tiem to be chasing as Arty already mentioned

@John didnt realsie at first why you mentioend hes not aggressiveas I could build the pot if hes not goign to fold onc e I have a big hand.....I kinda learn from expeience and remember th eobvious ones butsome will be borderline/tricky so i need away of working out whether to fold call or raise

Hi Prof sorry it not clear It had been rumbling around me brain for a while and mayeb Ive not asked all the right questions im unsure If iknew what to ask I wouldnt need to know lol

and yeah @ you are interested in your pot odds, ‘card odds’, equity on flop and implied odds?

Agreed its a small sample but i had #16hands on him

Im gettin muddled again took me a while to figure out "Comparing this 18% to the 33% pot odds is incorrect as we may well face a bet on the turn. So comparing the 8% to the 33% immediate pot odds makes most sense." but now i got it

I think a lot of my problems here come from ranging ?

So are my 3 questiosn the right questions to be asking ?

Just to summarise this so any beginner who thinks like me can learn are the answers ....

Q1 33%

Q2 28.93%

Q3 im really really unsure whats bestto type here gues sim trying to understand 1 and 2 first ...but could use not very likely and approximate 5% or very low ?


Would them 3 answers be ok with you

Already gettin majorly confused now but I introduce a Q4(could be a bad idea atthis point)...on flop to turn i times by 2 from rule of 2 and 4 and on river and turn it by 4............but in this hand example whatdo i use in order to be able to play my best...i wa sthinkin just 2 times 4outs=8%.....but for implied odds do you have to use 4 times 4?

Hoping once this is all clear you /someone will come up with an easy exampe and answers just for sake of clarity

Last edited by rolo834; Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 06:53 PM.. Reason: typed this b4 seeing Profs next post
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 07:04 PM
(#10)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
oh wow @Profess awe next post...no wonder I couldnt figure it out lol...and looks complictaed to me and yet you say thats the simplified version!!!

tbh I thought you had missed Q3 or I wa s looking fo r the answer within your previous post but as I didnt know what to look for I was dumbfounded lol

yeah this helps a lot just by being so complex then I dont need to worry abou tit in these exact terms....but it stil useful to know/ or know any shortcuts

I keep reading poker is a game of imperfect information and now im beginning to see why !

when u say "+37.5 given all above outcomes, so your 75 chip call is a losing proposition, far too often you miss turn and check fold. " you mean overall on average given all our assumptions are th e best we can be we lose 37.5 chips 75-37.5=37.5 ?

I never knew I was asking such a difficult Q3 in all honesty

Thanks guys
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 07:22 PM
(#11)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
in the cases when someone disconnects what should i do?

Do I have to wait ?...I even folded some bad hands(was this right?)...

So are my 3 questiosn the right questions to be asking ?

Just to summarise this so any beginner who thinks like me can learn are the answers ....

Q1 33%

Q2 28.93%

Q3 im really really unsure whats bestto type here gues sim trying to understand 1 and 2 first ...but could use not very likely and approximate 5% or very low ?


Would them 3 answers be ok with you

Already gettin majorly confused now but I introduce a Q4(could be a bad idea atthis point)...on flop to turn i times by 2 from rule of 2 and 4 and on river and turn it by 4............but in this hand example whatdo i use in order to be able to play my best...i wa sthinkin just 2 times 4outs=8%.....but for implied odds do you have to use 4 times 4?
If you are a nice person then you wait a while when someone disconnects, maybe a minute for them to rest wifi, log back in etc. I would wait for longer if it is someone I know/is friendly themselves. The vast majority of people would just take advantage and hoover up the chips as quick as possible, so I would not feel obliged to fold waiting for them to reconnect.

I don't like the 28% answer for question 2 as we are interested in equity once villain has bet pot which he presumably does not do with whole limping range, ie we had 28% equity when flop hit, we have less equity once we narrow his range to hands that bet pot I assume.

The three questions are some of the right questions to be asking when facing a decision in terms of shall I call with a draw, but as I tried to demonstrate and you rightly say its a game of incomplete information:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post

I keep reading poker is a game of imperfect information and now im beginning to see why !

when u say "+37.5 given all above outcomes, so your 75 chip call is a losing proposition, far too often you miss turn and check fold. " you mean overall on average given all our assumptions are th e best we can be we lose 37.5 chips 75-37.5=37.5 ?

I never knew I was asking such a difficult Q3 in all honesty

Thanks guys
Yep you are spot on when you say "you mean overall on average given all our assumptions are th e best we can be we lose 37.5 chips 75-37.5=37.5 ?" If the assumptions and my math is correct calling the 75 is a losing proposition when taking into account all eventualities considered.

But it seems like my main goal was right: Calculating implied odds is not something you can easily do so all you can do is take a view on I have to call with x pot odds, I have y outs, do I think I can win at least z chips when I hit to make it profitable.
 
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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 09:02 PM
(#12)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
yeah that seems fair Prof.....I felt bad just taking his chip but it has happended to me in the past so when i disconnect guess it the same

must admit though in play money i would hoover up probably

so to get that - 37.5 (minus) is there a computer program that works that kind of stuff out ? or a excel spreadsheet

If there is , is it allowed in game ?

would be cool to have 1

Thanks Everyone
 
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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 10:14 PM
(#13)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
so to get that - 37.5 (minus) is there a computer program that works that kind of stuff out ? or a excel spreadsheet
If there is , is it allowed in game ?
If there was a program that could calculate your EV against a range as the hand progressed, I'm sure it would be against the rules to use it. You're supposed to use your brain to make +EV decisions, not a computer.
After all, if a computer program could tell you "This play will result in a net loss", you'd always play perfectly and fold. Good players use their brains and experience to decide which plays are likely to be profitable. Since we never know an opponent's actual hole cards, we can only estimate our equity against ranges. You can practice that by putting ranges and hands into Pokerstove/Equilab. With some practice, you quickly realise that gutshots seldom make for profitable calls, and in some (or even many) spots, folding top pair is the right play.


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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 11:26 PM
(#14)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
I waited a while before saying "what about the ratio method"?

Very complicated with equity % but with your original thoughts on a gut shot. Given 2 / 1 it's a fold.

If I read it correctly 75 pot 75 bet = 150 now. Call is 75, the client tells you it's 150 / 75 = 2 : 1 and the odds chart (PSO basic course print out) tells me:

#Outs, Flop to turn, All-in on Flop
4, 11:1, 5:1

So I'm betting on a 11:1 dog or horse (cards) and I'm only being given 2:1 in my local betting shop (equity) now.

The implied odds come from bigger stacks when we are deep. I'd need to go down to the race track and get at least 14:1 on my money at the tote to see if my dog makes it to the finish line (river).

Sorry if my analogy confuses things. Just a thought process and probably too basic or wrong.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 11:32 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 04:11 PM
(#15)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
so to get that - 37.5 (minus) is there a computer program that works that kind of stuff out ? or a excel spreadsheet

If there is , is it allowed in game ?

would be cool to have 1
No computer program I am aware of and almost certain it would not be allowed. Recall that my craculations were actually very simplistic they ignore villain draw possibilities, assumed very static actions + it relies on being able to range accurately. So it is just an approximation, but still too complex for in game and crunching numbers on excel using pokerstove is not something I would want to do post-game for every decision, but it can help understand often seen general situations etc
I omitted the maths cos the point was calculating implied odds is complex and not something anyone I know does, but see Arty and Forrest's post which indicate your odds of hitting draw and therefore how much (>750 according to Arty) you should be thinking you need to have the implied odds to win when you hit - that is what you can try to do/consider in game.
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 07:39 PM
(#16)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
guess i did open a can of worm discussion ....didnt think there was Arty and or /it be banned

I definitely need toplay around with pokerstove its on my ever growing to do list..had that great program for a while now so should/must get around to it

It seems I have 20 things to do on list i do 3 but 3 more arrive hahahaa.....playing poker takes up to much time

When im running ba di do do more study and then reward myself with a game.....I should move up in stakes then more chance BR decreaing due t being better players then i study more

Must learn ranging also soon but whe learning new concepts fully takes lot of time to fully "get it all"

Thanks for waiting forest the reason i dont like odds to1 X/1 is it remind sme of horse racing and also I prefer to knwo it a sa % as myhand equity is a %

I should come up with an example that direct odds say fold but implied odds say dont fold but tryin to keep it simple or as easy as it can be for now

I doesnt confuse things it just when i see 2/1 i think ohh thats 1 in 3 so 33%..then compare to my hand value equity (as as my hand equity is a % i like to compare my odds % so comparing liek fo rlike a percentage to a percentage)...maybe I should use your way but in past didnt work for me

yeah i see prof thanks
 

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