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fold set?

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fold set? - Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:30 PM
(#1)
lyoung911's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 14
Played this hand today in 2NL zoom

I had no reads before the hand, but when the villain 3bets so small, I feel this can mean one of two things, either he has a monster (KK+ and possibly AK), or he is a fish who doesn't understand bet-sizing.
In the first case, I should probably fold OTT, because both AA and KK make a better set, though he could also have top two with AK. However, he could also be a fish, and I feel there are a lot of those in the sea called 2NL, so I ended up calling.
Is this a reasonable way to think about it, and/or should I have gotten away from this hand?
 
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Tue Sep 10, 2013, 12:50 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I would shove flop there, although I guess it might seem very strong as a line.
On the turn we don't beat much but AK, AJ, or Ax if he is a huge fish.
With that in mind it is hard to fold and we can't really get away from it.
 
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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 03:16 AM
(#3)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi |young911

I agree that his pf 3-bet is polarizing his range. However, he didn't just make a click back mini-raise, he actually chose a small amount. Because of this and the fact that the bb is an unknown, I am going to play it safe and put him on the top end range QQ, KK, AA and AK. I am also a bit concerned about what V8 is going to do if we call. But we are getting good odds to see the flop here.

On the flop the bb leads out with a nearly potsized bet. We are beating everything except KK. If he slowplayed a monster pf with a very small 3b, I would expect him to do the same on the flop if he flopped a set of Ks. Therefore, I would raise this flop aggressively. If he is holding AK or AA we can expect him to come over the top with an all in 3bet. By calling we do keep QQ in his range allowing him to possibly barrel the turn, but I want to bet for value now.

As played, the A on the turn is not great. Yet, if we stick to our original range of QQ, KK, AA and AK we have 64% equity. If we take QQ out of his range, we have 55% equity and calling the shove is still fine. Yes, we are going to run into a better set quite often, but the times we run into AK make this profitable. So, the question returns to his preflop 3-bet range. Does it include AK? Narrowing an unknown's range to only KK and AA seems too tight for 2NL imo.

PS: I hope you made a note on this villain's betting line with AA!

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 

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