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Extremely stupid bubble play

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Extremely stupid bubble play - Tue Sep 10, 2013, 03:25 PM
(#1)
lolipedofin's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 62


So, here's a really2 stupid bubble play by me. or is it? comment please.

Here's my thought process during the hand:

The pot is laying 1:4 to me, and the effective stack is 7x the price to call. so I simply thought that the combination of pot odds, implied odds, and raiser is button (a lot of steals at this stage), I can make this call profitably. My game plan is to flop big (2 pair or better) and stack the villain or fold if it came up blank.

I HAVE NO READ ON VILLAIN.

when the flop came, I had a baby flush draw, and after a quick thought, I decided to change my game plan and went with a stop n' go strategy instead... I figured if I get called, I have outs, and I was banking on the fact that villain is holding rags.

As played, turned out I was in a horrible shape and drawing only to the 2nd best flush. And I busted while holding a healthy stack before this hand.

My question:

How bad/stupid is this play? Is it profitable here to call the flop assuming that the stack is exactly like this and the chance of villain holding good hand to rag as 50:50?

How does bubble play differ for fifty50? and what's the ICM like for fifty50?

Thanks.
 
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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 05:50 PM
(#2)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi lolipedofin,

Yes is the short answer I think this is really bad.

You are too short to put in 250 chips, try to hit a hand and fold if you miss. You won't hit a big hand often enough.

Other two reasons this is a bad call is you are out of position against the raiser and you have no read on the raiser.

With a hand this bad just fold it and move on to a better spot, where you have a better hand a better position or a better read.

If you did think your opponent is stealing light then the best way to take advantage is to 3bet allin. But I don't think that is a great proposition here on the bubble with such a bad hand.

Also in this spot in general be wary of the min raise from a short stack in a stealing position. The villain is 8BB effective, which means the most effective play is to move allin rather than raise. So a raise here can sometimes mean a very strong hand wanting action, this is only the case when you have a read though and know your opponent would normally be shoving.

Andy




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Wed Sep 11, 2013, 07:14 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolipedofin View Post
How does bubble play differ for fifty50? and what's the ICM like for fifty50?
Bubble play differs in 50/50s because of somewhat peculiar ICM reasons.

I'll make the assumption that this is a $1.50 tourney with a regular speed structure. In that game, a buy-in is $1.35 and survival will reward you with $1.35 + 4c per 100 chips. So gaining 1000 chips is only worth 40c. Losing 1000 chips means you're close to being busto and losing your entire $1.35.

It's therefore crucial to understand that - except in specific situations - you should avoid taking flips for about 1000 chips on the bubble. After all, 50% of the time you gain 40c, and 50% of the time, you lose $1.35. It's not +EV to take a flip in that spot, since your average expectation is negative. You maintain your EV by folding, in order that someone else will make a bad call for their whole stack.

That being said, you should sometimes be prepared to gamble if you are the shortest stack of all, especially if you are a long way behind the guy in 5th place. If you keep folding, then you will blind out. Conversely, if you are the biggest stack, you can keep adding chips by raising/stealing, knowing that shorter stacks are highly unlikely to play back at you, since they have little to gain by playing a hand, and everything to lose.


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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 03:07 PM
(#4)
lolipedofin's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 62
Thanks for the reply guys...

@Ahar: Yea, looking back, I don't know what I was smoking when I played this hand... I was probably on tilt, but I can't really remember... To follow up on your answer, I have further question, ignoring position, assuming I can stack villain 100% of the time, and also assuming the possibility of light cooler (e.g. flop: 27K, hero: 27, villain: k7) how deep must the effective stack be, to make calling a minraise with 27o from BB profitable?

Oh, also assume that I will only play 2 pairs or better and will not try to bluff. Sorry for the complicated question, but I was always under the assumption that any hand have some implied odds to stack villain, I just wonder what's the odd like with the worst hand in HE.


@Arty: Thanks for your explanation. This is actually the 3.50 buy in. (I managed to grew my bankroll to afford it, yay!). Your explanation does makes sense, but how about when we have a big stack against short stacked. for example, we are holding AK at BB with 5000 stack with blinds at 150. button shove with 1200 and let's assume that we put him at 22-QQ 80% of the time. Now this is likely to be a race, shouldn't I call this? since even if we lost the race, we are still in it with a pretty healthy stack. Thoughts?

Also, is there any spot in 50fifty where folding AA or KK preflop is actually the right play?

Lastly, how about 3 betting shove with a hand that we know will be a flip? Should we do it anyway and pray that the original raiser will fold, or should we do it with some stat of the likeliness of the raiser to fold to the shove?


Thanks a lot!
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 05:37 PM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
If you are the biggest stack and you have a big hand (TT+, AK) then calling a shove can be a viable way to increase your tourney equity. With AK vs QQ-22, and the stacks and blinds you listed, you have just under a 50% chance of adding 1425 chips to your stack while also busting the shorty, so you have a fair chance of grabbing a large chunk of the prize pool. As you say, you're not in terrible shape if you lose the flip, so I would be happy to go with AK there. With worse hands (smaller pairs and unpaired hands worse than AK), you're almost certainly better off letting the shorty win the blinds this time. You can go back to bullying the table straight after folding).

I could probably contrive some examples where folding AA/KK would be correct. There are occasional spots where your strategy is akin to playing a satellite. If, for example, you had 400 chips (4bb at the 100 level), but there were two players with even smaller stacks, on the direct bubble, you're probably better off folding 100% of hands. Even with AA you only have about an 80% chance of adding about 500 to your stack (which barely increases your winnings), but you have a 20% of losing $3.50. If you fold, then it's pretty likely that one of the shorter stacks will go busto, thus guaranteeing you keep your $3.50 and break even.

The 3-betting plan really depends on reads and bubble/stacks situation, but most of the time you are indeed hoping to pick up the dead money without a fight. If you were to 3-bet ship AQ or 99, for example, you don't really want to get called, as you'll be pretty much always a big underdog. Understanding how much fold equity you have is something you'll learn with experience, being constantly aware of the bubble situation and by taking notes. In my limited experience of 50s, there is LOT more fold equity than in regular tourneys, but I wouldn't go crazy with light 3-bet shoves unless I'm very sure that I have the best hand, or villain almost certainly can't call.


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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 07:10 PM
(#6)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolipedofin View Post
Thanks for the reply guys...

@Ahar: Yea, looking back, I don't know what I was smoking when I played this hand... I was probably on tilt, but I can't really remember... To follow up on your answer, I have further question, ignoring position, assuming I can stack villain 100% of the time, and also assuming the possibility of light cooler (e.g. flop: 27K, hero: 27, villain: k7) how deep must the effective stack be, to make calling a minraise with 27o from BB profitable?

Oh, also assume that I will only play 2 pairs or better and will not try to bluff. Sorry for the complicated question, but I was always under the assumption that any hand have some implied odds to stack villain, I just wonder what's the odd like with the worst hand in HE.
Hi lolipedofin,

It's not even really a question of when the call becomes profitable. Because chips you have are worth more than the chips you can gain. For example it's not worth risking your stack if you gain 1 chip on average. The play might be +EV chip wise. Because increasing your stack by 1 chip has very little impact on the amount of prize money you are likely to win and losing your stack has a very big impact on the amount of prize money you win. So a +EV chip call could well be a -$EV call.

When you are near 10BBs or under it is very important to not leak any chips you can avoid. For example when your 6BB stack drops to 4BBs when you limp fold a couple of hands that has a huge bearing on your fold equity and position in the tournament.

In terms of when calling with 72o and folding any flop without two pair or better becomes profitable. I think you would want 100BB+. You just won't hit two pair or better that often and your opponent is never 100% to stack off to you.

When you talk about getting the right odds to defend with 72o to make it profitable you need to be winning the hands with 1 pair sometimes, winning with a bluff sometimes, hitting the turn or river sometimes. But if you are playing fit or fold then you will rarely have the odds to defend.

Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 

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