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10nl 6m zoom: AQo c/o, flop a gut-shot with overs - c-bet, y/n?

10nl 6m zoom: AQo c/o, flop a gut-shot with overs - c-bet, y/n? - Tue Sep 10, 2013, 08:18 PM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
Haven't seen Oliver/Croyd around in a while, but a way's back he started a blog on tricky c-bet spots, that are maybe more on the line? Like maybe there's some pros, but also some cons?

Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I decided to start this blog to help plug my leaks;

I've always considered my Cbet to be high but I've never really attempted to curb it and bring it in line.

Here are a few cbetting spots let me know what you think for each (villains unknown, or very small sample)

And so I too have sort of a similar spot - for some reason, lately I've been really struggling with the question of whether to c-bet in this one type of spot ... not sure what I've been doing up to now But just thought it'd be interesting to get some feedback on whether:

 ● Does everybody like to c-bet the flop in this type of spot? (Check-fold the turn if the villain calls the c-bet on the flop?)
 ● Maybe no c-bet on the flop, but one on the turn if it's checked behind? (Check-fold or check-call if the villain c-bets the flop?)
 ● Maybe yes if it weren't multi-way, but not because it is?
 ● Maybe yes with a better sample of stats on the villains, showing them to be tighter, but no versus these two (with one unknown)?

Villains' HUD stats:

Villain 1 was a 1-tabler (no HUD stats)

Villain 3 was a 4-tabler (yellow tag on PT), with the following NoteTracker note:
[P] Called 2Bet from blinds range {QTo} (1)

The 'ProbeT' of 50% for villain 3 means that if nobody bets behind him, 50% of the time he'll lead out the turn.

And the aggro at 10nl is generally pretty high.

Thanks everybody

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 08:27 PM..
Wed Sep 11, 2013, 12:50 AM
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
I wouldn't cbet flop:

- It not only hits their calling range big, but also their check-rasing range which we can't call.
- We dont really have a lot of eq vs their calling range, an A or a Q will often improve also their range, we like a heart but still we can't expect a lot of folds on the turn if we double barrel. We only have 3 clean outs.
- Even if we turn a heart (that its not the A) either we have to fire 3 shots to win, or check turn hope we hit another heart and its unlikely that we get paid big on a 4 flush board and be good.
- I rather give us the chance to se a cheap turn.

-If it checks back to us unimproved i still wouldn't bet, could call a smallish bet.
- vs 1 opponent, i still check, i mean you only fold like 66-22 and all other stuff that didnt connect with the board, you have eq vs this hands and you can bluff them later, and you can for sure see a cheap turn.
- Vs a guy mith more stats and a tighter range, still his calling range would hit this flop frequently.
Wed Sep 11, 2013, 04:13 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Sam

I agree with what Carlos said.

Although we have a few outs we can continue on if we bet and get called here but the thing is this flop is x/raise-able and we would benefit more from seeing a turn card when it gets checked through because we would have a better chance to win the pot against their flop checking range.

Wed Sep 11, 2013, 08:02 AM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
Guess not such a close call after all

I thought it would be close because my c-bet rate isn't super high like Oliver/Croyd's, but it is a little higher than optimal. It's a little higher than 70%, and it sort of seems like maybe a rate a little lower than 70% might be preferable?

And so is a spot where (I think?) I used to c-bet? Which was the first spot to get cut (mostly not multi-way, but when I was oop I think?) ... for the exact reasons you both cited - it seemed to be a spot where I was getting check-raised a lot. It's not that I expected people to fold to a c-bet ... but checking seems to cause some tricky spots too?

I was only like 60% sure this villain didn't have a made hand (and that therefore my hand was likely better), but maybe in the net check-folding most of the time, and check-calling to bluff-catch every once in a while when something feels off, comes out ahead of c-betting in this type of spot with such low equity (actual or fold)? That's what it's sort of feeling like?

Glad to hear everybody likes the checks on the flop and the turn - guess I was looking for reassurance that I was moving in the right direction after calling those two streets with A-high (although maybe that was a mistake?)

Thanks for the help Carlos, Geo!!

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 08:15 PM.. Reason: added 'actual and fold' to clarify the term 'low equity'
Wed Sep 11, 2013, 07:57 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Your fold equity on a two-tone JT7 flop is incredibly low, especially multiway. I used this exact texture as an example in one of my c-betting blogs.

JT7tt - This flop might initially look pretty good to the pre-flop raiser. If he has AK, he has two overcards and a gutshot to Broadway, so he has pretty good equity, right? WRONG! This flop might not look quite as ugly to the PFR as a 987tt, but this kind of flop is a TERRIBLE flop to semi-bluff. Flops that contain a jack and a ten as the highest cards lead to the lowest c-bet success rate of all.
In the previous blog, I also included this check-list, which I think is pretty useful:

In short, I'm not c-betting that flop.

Bracelet Winner
Wed Sep 11, 2013, 08:13 PM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
It's not that I expected a fold - I was trying to avoid winding up in the position of feeling like the most EV play would be to bluff-catch with A-high, possibly oop ... like I didn't want to open the door to having somebody do betting with a worse draw?

I should edit my post above to be more clear

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 08:16 PM..

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