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Check and give up or 3 barrel

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Check and give up or 3 barrel - Thu Sep 12, 2013, 04:04 AM
(#1)
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30


player 6

hands = 219
vpip = 26
pfr = 22
flop c bet = 53
fold to f c bet = 86
fold to t c bet = 50
fold to r c bet = no stats

Check and give up or 3 barrel

Last edited by I AM XXXX; Thu Sep 12, 2013 at 01:41 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 05:04 AM
(#2)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi I AM XXXX!

Before we look at the postflop line, let's look at the preflop. I think you would be better folding this hand pf. Q10o is marginal at best as a speculative hand. Your cards are not suited, and they are gappers. Folding this hand pf is going to be best. The only big plus we have is our position. Against some villains we may be able to 3b bluff preflop, but without knowing his fold to 3b and steal% I wouldn't consider this line since Q10o doesn't make for that great of a plan b if our 3b gets called.

As played, you do get a good flop with an open ended straight draw. You posted the villain's fold to cbet stats, but in this hand you are not c-betting since you were not the pf raiser. I would be more interested in his cbet%, wtsd% and w$sd%.

Nonetheless, the villain checks to you which may be a sign of weakness. I like your bet on the flop. This will often win us the pot and may get the villain to fold Ax hands that missed and smaller pairs. If we get called, we still may improve on the turn.

Your hand does not improve on the turn and the villain checked to you again. I would take the free card by checking your option. The villain called your flop bet. The 5 on the turn doesn't change texture of the board much. So if he has Jx, 10x or sticking to an Ax hand. He is unlikely to fold to another bullet on the turn. Moreover, when we bet a flop with a flush or straight draw, one of the benefits of this is just this situation. We get to see the river for free.

On the river, I would check down the hand. This is an expensive bluff with a 3 on the river. Our chances of success are small. Is he ever going to fold top pair or two pair hands in this spot? Compared to the texture of the board, it is unlikely that his range contains many drawing hands that would have been chasing to the river and missed.

In general, I would suggest sticking to stronger speculative hands such as suited connectors for calling in late postion pf. Postflop, remember, the real strength of speculative hands is when we actually make a set, straight or flush. Then we can get value from villains like this one who will call bets on every street with a one pair hand.

GL and have fun at the tables!

Roland GTX
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 05:05 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi XXXX,

I don't like the preflop call too much. At 5nl we might get away with something like this but keep in mind that as you move up in stakes we will get squeezed more often. This is a type of hand I'd use to mix in some light 3bets from the BTN.

I'd expect villain to be x/c-ing with a polarized range here.
Hands that cbet the flop will be: TPTK/TPMK+, draws, underpairs to MP, and air.
Hands that will x/c will be: TPWK, MP, PP higher than MP so { TT, QJ/JT, J8s, A9, K9s, Q9s, T9, 98 }

OTT, they will have 21 combos of TP, 3 combos of TT, 38 combos of 9x
When we bet the turn, I expect them to fold at least T9/98 hands and continue with the rest which leaves us with:
21 combos of TP, 3 combos of TT, and 17 combos of 9x So if we do bet the river we are getting folds from 20 combos at best (that's IF villain will continue with a 9 + overcard to the board to a turn bet) and called by 21 combos. So I think the 3rd barrel might be a bit ambitious here and perhaps giving up is more optimal.
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 05:05 AM
(#4)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hi XXXX,

Firstly, I think its a fold p/f [as above]. As played, I would be tempted to 'x' back, rather than bet again OTT after Villain x/c OTF and would 'x' it down / give up OTR after Villain calls 2 streets... The river card is a brick, so not sure what hand your trying to represent maybe TPTK, but Villain will not fold a J in this spot as f/d & s/d miss.

Good luck

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Thu Sep 12, 2013 at 05:08 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 05:08 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Horrible board runout to barrel.

I would prefer 3betting over flatting vs the CO. Flop cbet is standard with an open ender, but the turn is a horrible card to barrel. If it was an overcard it would be a better spot to continue firing. OTR he's never folding so i'd just give up.

You can't win every pot.
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 10:07 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
I agree with everyone else about giving up. A key point to note is the stat usage... like Greg pointed out you are focused on villains fold to c-bet stats but he is not facing a c-bet (he is the only one who can c-bet this flop as he was the preflop aggressor), so those are not the best stats to be considering as they don't apply to this situation.

When the preflop raiser check/calls the flop they will often have some sort of mid strength showdown value hand. geo provided a reasonable range for this. When the board is wet and blanks roll off we are going to get called down by this range every time. Use the positional advantage you hold here to take a free card, and just give up the river imo. The time to barrel vs. these mid strength showdown value hands are when 1) the board is dry (they can't put you on draws so your barreling looks much stronger... only do this vs players who can find their fold button obv) and/or 2) scare cards to this range come off (overcards, draw completing cards, etc).


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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 11:07 AM
(#7)
MrSmith999's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 87
Strong advice from both Hand Analyser's and Head Trainer I AM XXXX! Especially noteworthy that you are not the c-bettor in this hand, and need to use other stats.

Love PSO!
 
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Thu Sep 12, 2013, 01:29 PM
(#8)
I AM XXXX's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 30
I only put fold to flop c bet in to show he can fold

I do not have [ miss c bet fold] on my hud only on pop up and did not look

with only 219 hands this stat has to small a sample size

Last edited by I AM XXXX; Thu Sep 12, 2013 at 01:38 PM..
 

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