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Calling a Resteal from a Shorter Stack - Good Idea? Too Reckless? :D

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Calling a Resteal from a Shorter Stack - Good Idea? Too Reckless? :D - Thu Sep 12, 2013, 11:30 PM
(#1)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Gosh, wish there were more time in the day to study everything - have been trying to pick up tourney tips here and there. And a couple of days ago, there was a tip in somebody's Time Vault thread about being willing to do flips (assuming we were flipping) - although maybe that was more for turbos?

The villain on the button was really loose, so he wasn't likely to call my isolation shove.

Would most tourney players go for a (likely) flip versus a shorter stack, or fold in a spot like this, assuming the squeezer was re-stealing fairly wide?

Thanks for the help!!


Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Sep 12, 2013 at 11:35 PM..
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 01:20 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Always and always.
The pot is already huge, so we have the pot odds to call even against a very tight range.
If he had us covered and were other considerations to be made, (like the bubble, or Button cold calling with monsters) we might fold sometimes.
But this time, snap it up!
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 12:19 PM
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Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Sam,

Whether or not I'm willing to take probable flips in tournaments depends a lot on the depth of money and the structure of the event. In a hyperturbo I'll take one early and often to try and chip up... even level 1 money won't be deep for long in this structure. In a deep stack slow structure event like a WCOOP I'm not really looking to flip for a 70bb stack for example, since there's so much time to work and exploit larger edges. With a 15bb stack though I'm good flipping for a double up, not that much time any more to wait.

The other factor that comes into play for me is the opponent's range. Since we can't put them on a precise hand, we are actually playing a range, and how our hand fairs vs. that range may make it not really a flip either.

Your hand here of TT is a very nice example of this. Some people will take a hand like 22 and say well let's go I'll flop with this... but when you evaluate their actual range 22 and TT are worlds apart. You assume the raiser is squeezing fairly wide... so if we say that is something like any pair, A7o+, A2s+, broadways, and a few suited connectors like 98s, the difference is easily seen. While TT and 22 perform similarly vs. AK, they perform very differently vs. 55, A7o, or 98s. In fact against such a range as a whole, 22's equity is about 43% (the really bad side of a flip), while TT's equity is almost 62%... an almost 20% equity difference, which is huge.

In your actual hand, with a squeezer who has an 18bb stack that we think may be doing this wide, I would go with the tens. I also like your play of reshoving to isolate him since we likely have the best hand vs. V2, but don't really mind folding him out at this point rather than letting him overcall with hands like 55 (which probably stack us when he hits) or KJ (6 overcards to draw out on us).


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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 08:40 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Thanks GP, Dave!!

Okay, so when deciding whether or not to go for a (likely) flip, we should consider:

1. depth of money
2. structure of the event
3. opponents' ranges


Oh, that helps a lot!!

This was a nightly $2.20 with 3,000 starting stacks and 15min blinds, so if one's lucky to win a couple of big pots, it can take quite a while to become short. And then like, there was time to keep playing and look for a better spot ... but there was also time to take risks and try to recover?

Couldn't decide which was optimal ... and haven't studied tourneys too much. But I remember Sandtrap posting this question for Chewme about his decision to go for a (likely) flip as the big stack, mid-way through a slow-structure tourney, and they seemed to have differing opinions? http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...02-For-ChewMe1


Have been playing lower buy-in tourneys recently to give taking more risks a try, and so I did wind up shoving, and the button folded, and the bb had AJo:




So my stack took a hit, but I still wound up making it all the way up to 27/528 according to PokerProLabs - and it might have been an even deeper run if I hadn't gotten sleepy and spewed off my stack

Maybe since this was a slow structure it would have been okay to fold as well with TT? Most important I guess is just knowing what factors to consider before deciding whether to fold or call/shove? So thanks Dave
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 08:51 PM
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Oh, people might find this important to hear about too though ... the night before I took a similar chance and wound up getting eliminated like 4 or 5 ppl before ITM




But, one deep run was I think worth more than two min-cashes? So maybe in the net it was worth more to take more risks? Still experimenting though - haven't played too much - and I guess there's a lot of different ways to play and stuff
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 10:44 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Maybe since this was a slow structure it would have been okay to fold as well with TT? Most important I guess is just knowing what factors to consider before deciding whether to fold or call/shove? So thanks Dave
Since he's only shoving 17.5bb's total and we have to call 15 more (with 52 total behind), I think we should not pass up this big an edge vs. a wide squeeze range. If we lose we still have 37bb's in a slow structure, plenty of room to work, and if we win we'll be the table chip leader and have a punishing stack. This coupled with a +EV edge vs a wider squeeze range makes it a play for me.


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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 11:02 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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Oh, more factors to consider - thanks Dave!!

Okay, so other stuff to think about would be like:

1. what sort of shape would we be in if we lose? (yes)
2. would it be a big advantage to win? (yes)
3. is our range sufficiently competitive? (yes)

Plus the slow structure stuff from before, so there were many good things going for this spot ... okay, sounds great

Have another spot to post that wasn't so clear - will post that now
 
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Sat Sep 14, 2013, 06:01 PM
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Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post

But, one deep run was I think worth more than two min-cashes? So maybe in the net it was worth more to take more risks? Still experimenting though - haven't played too much - and I guess there's a lot of different ways to play and stuff

TONS more.

Remember what I told you a couple years back? That trying to find a "go to" game at each monetary level as we move along,be it some form of SNG or just cash tables,is something that we should try to find so that we can fund our MTT plays (if we want to play MTT's...) with money won from other players?

Your question here is EXACTLY the reason that this is a good idea. Because variance in MTT's can be brutal due to the parameters of what playing MTT's correctly entails...ALWAYS be trying to run deep and then from there to the FT and aiming for the top 3. ALWAYS.

Because the money in MTT's is so heavily weighted towards the top 3 spots.

Ten cents...$1.10...$2.20...$11.00...$33.00...The Sunday Million...doesn't matter...all the scheduled freeze-out MTT's put the emphasis on running deep and grabbing one of the top slots.

You're playing $2.20's right now? Look at the payout structures...whether they're weighted closer to 15%,12% or 10% of players making the money the same rule applies,the BIG money is allocated for running deep and especially for the top 3 spots.

Just for an example..look at the BIG $2.20 last night (great value MTT BTW...gonna play $2.20 MTT's I would be trying to play the BIG and BIGGER as much as possible...).

4680 runners,which is around 400-600 more than typical since it was Friday.Bottom min-cash was from players 585 down to 541,so 12.5% to 11.6% of the field. And it paid $3.65,which due to a smaller amount of players cashing at 12.5% and beyond means it's a little higher than many MTT's min-cashes would be. Getting back a 66% ROI on a min-cash in an MTT is pretty good.

But...

We could go all the way up to the 10th level of cashing,players 342 down to 325,which takes us now to having finished in the top 7.3% down to 6.9% of the field and having faded an additional 200 players beyond the first cash level and we add a paltry $1.03 past what the minimum cash paid us.

Say we were an ITM machine in these and could cash 50% of the time...and we always were finishing in these first 10 cash levels. Balance it out from the 1st to 10th and say that we're averaging $4.17 per cash (the median between $3.65 and $4.68).

So extrapolate this over a 100 game sample...50 x $4.17 = $208.50. Our buy-in commitment to play 100 $2.20 MTT's...100 x $2.20 = $220.00...$208.50 - $220.00 = (-$11.50).

We just hung up a 50% ITM number to LOSE money.

So much for focusing on min-cashes in MTT's. It will NEVER be profitable to do so.

Compare that to playing 100 of the same $2.20's and cashing JUST ONCE,but for a 6th place finish (didn't even have to go top 3 to make this work). 6th place in the BIG $2.20 that I'm using as an example here paid $304.

We make nearly $100 profit for cashing 1 out of 100.

In even simpler terms Sammy,think of it THIS way...say you cash a truckload of min-cashes in assorted MTT's...are any of these even going to register in your noodle 5 minutes after the tourney ends for you?

Kinda doubt it.

But say you bink a top 3 like in this BIG $2.20 last night...3rd place alone would have paid you almost $800.

THAT you would not only remember but be coming here to share with a well deserved "sick brag" post.

BE bankrolled to play MTT's the right way Sam...meaning accepting that you'll have to be well insulated for arid stretches that are Saharan in nature as you try to get the big brass ring money.

This is NOT to say that if you're in one and it's not going your way and you're still in it but short that you should just throw a stack away for no reason when you could possibly grind out a min-cash,of course you should try to get that ITM finish then. These will insulate you some against the blanked entries.

But you shouldn't pass on advantageous spots where the margins aren't so big because you're worried about a min-cash. One truly deep run is worth dozens of min-cashes.

Hope this helped you out some,now go kill that shizzle.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Sat Sep 14, 2013 at 06:05 PM..
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 03:29 PM
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Posts: 8,291
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Hey, so sorry for taking so long to respond - I've been holed up in bed, sick for most of the weekend ... so, it was pretty exciting to wake up today to a Moxie Pip novella ... woohoo!!

Hope you don't mind that I share it with everybody else in that other tourney thread about going deep -people who are thinking about trying to play tourneys a different way might find your discussion of the payouts persuasive

Tourneys are just something I do for fun, so I'll never be playing enough to smooth out the variance - I just play them when the Micro Millions is on and stuff? This latest kick came about because I was playing a WCOOP satty, and had the chance to play against a couple of MTT grinders who were doing things that I'd never seen before, which got me curious about trying new things.

Like it's fun and interesting to learn new things?

Hey Moxie, there was a post over at 2+2 a while ago about some new legal US site, and people seemed pretty excited about it - have you checked that out? So great to hear from you!! Just like old times
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 05:55 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Hey Sam,hope you're feeling better.

Meh,if it's "PD" that you're talking about I'm on there,freerolled from $0 to a little over $55.00 in about 2 weeks (about $17-18 of it was from .01/.01...yes,you read the blinds right...ring play...).

Unfortunately the reality is that there really isn't any such thing as "legal" online poker in the US right now,at least not for all and nothing even remotely like Stars...so it doesn't really hold much interest for me.

More focused on occasional sojourns to the live poker rooms we have in two casinos here in Maryland now and counting the days until the Horseshoe Casino that's scheduled to open sometime next summer in downtown Baltimore (right near the Ravens and Orioles stadium complex and a few spanking new hotels...CA-CHING!!! ) is actually up and running.
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 06:03 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Can't remember the name of the place, but if you freerolled your way to $55 in two weeks, maybe that's why some people are liking that site? lol

Oh yeah I remember Rocker being really excited for the new casino too - sounds like it ought to attract a fair amount of casuals to the tables hopefully?

Good to hear you're managing to find ways to play poker, even though you can't play on Stars anymore. And it's nice to see you still stopping by to offer tips
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 08:00 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Meh,if it's "PD" that you're talking about I'm on there,freerolled from $0 to a little over $55.00 in about 2 weeks (about $17-18 of it was from .01/.01...yes,you read the blinds right...ring play...).

Unfortunately the reality is that there really isn't any such thing as "legal" online poker in the US right now,at least not for all and nothing even remotely like Stars...so it doesn't really hold much interest for me.
Oh, hey Moxie, if you see this, somebody kicked up the thread over at 2+2 with the site - it's called 'Live Ace', but yeah it doesn't quite sound like Stars. Probably play at the casino is more fun

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29...nches-1362212/

 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 08:03 PM
(#13)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Additional Note to Self:

Try to remember that flips aren't 0EV in tourneys ... like they can be really great opportunities to chip up!!
 

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