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0.10 360 person turbo. 65suited in the BB, should I call this short stack all in?

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0.10 360 person turbo. 65suited in the BB, should I call this short stack all in? - Fri Sep 13, 2013, 05:46 AM
(#1)
Rob Sharona's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 120
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...826_18E3306299

Many factors here, firstly we are 2 away from the money, the villain has sat out for different spells throughout the tournament, but seems to have generally had good starting cards.

He ships UTG. I opted to call and ended up winning the pot, but is this the right idea usually?
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 10:01 AM
(#2)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
ok, I will give you my opinion, you will get a proper answer from the analyst's.

My Answer is no.

The guy UTG, had what hardly any chips, he could be shuving such a wide range of hands, i.e. A2 offsuit, that you were relying on a very kind flop.....so I would have not played that hand, with the 65.
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 12:58 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Rob,

In short, yes this is a good call.

It only costs us 2.4bb's to make this call, which is not a huge impact on our stack if we call and lose. So stack considerations aren't an impact here and it becomes solely a math decision. The fact that he's so short and may be shoving a very wide range of hands argues for the call actually, not against it. We are getting ~2.4-1 on a call (1200 to win 2865) and while we never expect 6 high to be ahead preflop, we are also never this big an underdog against any sort of reasonable wide range UTG may be shoving. We need about 29.5% equity to break even on a call mathematically. Even if the UTG player were shoving an extremely tight range of only 10% of starting hands, 65s still has 34%. And he should be much, much wider than 10% of starting hands here, which only increases our equity (if he were actually shoving 100%, any 2 cards, our equity with 65s is 43%).


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 02:33 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 01:15 PM
(#4)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
haha Dave, I somehow knew I would be totally wrong !!!!!
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 06:39 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
You can even dial the guy all the way down to 5% and we're dead even equity wise...29.8% pot equity vs. 29.6% hand equity.

5% means 88+,AJs+,KQs &AKo,that's it.

As shown villain WAS inside that range with their AQs,but as Dave pointed out,villains are NOT going to be so tight as 5 or even 10% only to open shove from UTG with a 3BB stack.

Tournament game play wise,even if we miss here all we've done is go from roughly a 15BB stack (6.4M) to a little better than a 12BB stack (5.3M). Not a big difference and we're still in line to accomplish mission objective 1...cashing...as the BB has now gone through us and the money bubble will almost certainly burst before we see the blinds again.

If we win...we jump to 20.4BB (8.9M)...and have the second biggest stack on this table and the power that can give us...a much bigger change in our fortunes for the better than the minimal effect taking the loss here would entail.

Right play,great result and for bonus points in a .10 360 man you probably will get lots of action when you have big hands now because most of the players just see AQ vs 65 and have you pegged as an idiot for calling.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 06:42 PM..
 
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Fri Sep 13, 2013, 08:10 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Yeah, you can never put a player this short on only a top 3% nut range or something crazy. Even though he actually had real hand in AQs here.

An interesting thing to note is if the opponent could some how show us his cards preflop and say hey man, I've got it and flash the AQs... we have a snap call. 6d5d has 39.5% equity all in preflop vs. AsQs, and while we'll lose the pot 2 in 5 times to him the chips already in the middle are providing a huge overlay.

Very nice side point about image Moxie. Either way, win or lose, we'll get an action image. The loose players will peg us as a gambler like them, and the tight ones will peg us as an idiot loose player. It's likely very few in this player pool will recognize this as a +EV math and situational call.


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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 10:06 PM
(#7)
Rob Sharona's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 120
I doth my caps to all you fine gentlemen!
Many thanks!
 

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