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MTT's and ROI question

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MTT's and ROI question - Sun Sep 15, 2013, 09:53 PM
(#1)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,423
Hi Everyone

As i currently dont play MTT's how many $1 MTT would I need to play before I know I am definitely profitable? I mean in the long term just so im clear here ...as if you luckily bink 1 im not counting that

Guessing it doesnt depend on bankroll its to do with ROI? maybe

Im guessing its alot but how does one calculate a number?


I plan on playing a few MTT's ($1.10) once my to do list finally gets shorter

cheers

rolo
 
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Sun Sep 15, 2013, 11:03 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Really no way to give you the answer you want here,rolo. Just because the nature of MTT's is so varied.

One can be playing really well and go through a deep and long dry spell in them. It's not like cash tables and SNG's,especially smaller field SNG's,where if you keep losing consistently over a big sample then you must be making mistakes. You can play well in MTT after MTT but get stoned when it comes to making the deep runs and FT's that you'll need to be profitable.

I would advise this...if you're serious about having a go at these $1.10 MTT's consider these things strongly before you start.

1. Be at least 100 buy-ins deep. Variance in MTT's is huge,bigger than anything else in poker. And not only should you be at least 100 buy-ins deep but it should be money that is segregated from your other money...in other words it's set aside for this endeavor and this endeavor only. Do NOT get your regular game grindage funds mixed up with your MTT money...you're gonna have runs where you bleed buy-ins like water,it's inevitable.

2. Go to the lobby and look at the entire list of $1.10's that fit YOUR schedule. Bear in mind that you'll want to be capable of playing FT's if and when you make them,so if your cut off time for playing at night is say 11PM then tourneys like the 2.5K guarantee that goes at 6PM and the 1.5K guarantee that goes at 7PM are not good choices for you,as you would need to play measurably later than when is optimum for you to ever see a FT. I'm going with Eastern times here,but you get my drift I'm sure and can adjust to your time zone,if necessary.

The good news on this is that there are a LOT of $1.10 MTT's every day,so there are sure to be plenty that fit your time frame.

3. Equally important,after you have scoped out the MTT's that fit your schedule now go back and take your time and look at every part of these MTT's...standard blinds or turbo?...full table or 6-max?...heck even game type...there are numerous Omaha,Stud and Draw options. Maybe you have some skill at one of these? And the absolute biggest payouts are in the re-buy/ad-on games here. These type of tourney's are not everyone's cup of tea and if you're tempted then I would make my bankroll for this MTT grind even deeper since re-buy tourneys can eat a roll up quick.

4. Lastly there are some MTT's that are below the $1.10's in buy-in fees that can pay nearly as well for less money. Don't ignore them.

I personally would never drop the .10 ($50 added) MTT's,the .25 ($100 added) MTT and the HOT and HOTTER .55 Turbos out of my menu if my top limit games were the $1.10. Simply because the VALUE in those games is so good and for such a small investment.

If you can fit the .25 into your schedule it even has the bonus of having a structure very alike to standard blind $1.10 MTT's. So it's good practice.

Try not to get too caught up in your ROI and ITM percentage (especially the latter)when playing MTT's and concentrate on whether or not you're making mostly good decisions.

Understand that you WILL take gut-wrenching beats worse than you're used to taking because getting stacked a couple times in a ring session or being dry-gulched by a beat to lose HU in a 45 man ain't gonna sting like getting robbed by a 2-outer when you're a few peeps away from a FT after 6-7 hours of playing. It's going to happen and you have to dust yourself off and understand that and move on.

Bottom line with MTT's ...nothing in poker will break your heart more and conversely nothing in poker can make you more euphoric. To me they're the windmill most worth tilting at,just don't let them tilt you.
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 09:56 AM
(#3)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
If you play only once and finish 1st, you'll definitely be a profitable player over the next few hundred MTTs, but that's not how it works. If you are a winning player, you should have a positive ROI after around 100 MTTs. But if you have a positive ROI after 100 MTTs, you might still not be a winning player, or if your ROI is negative over the same amount of MTTs, you might still be a winning player. Take a look at your profit history and if it's mostly positive, you're probably a winning player. If it's mostly negative and going down, you're probably not.

It also depends on the field size which is probably around 2000-3000 in those MTTs?

I don't think you need a huge bankroll for these because you're not really grinding them. You should be fine if you can put aside $5/day but it's better to consider that amount lost money because you shouldn't expect to finish ITM every day. However, the field is quite soft all the way at micro stakes so it shouldn't take long to make it deep a couple of times too.

Anyway, you asked about a number about being "definitely profitable". How about 1000? I seem to have played over 4000 at $0-$4.99 buy-in, ROI 30%, ITM 624/3647 (17%), Avg Field Size 2037, but then again at $10-$20 buy-in I've got a -28% ROI and I've finished ITM 64/344 (19%), AFS 4567.
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 04:30 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
I think to get a reasonable idea of your long-term ROI for MTTs, you probably need a sample size that is about half the size of the average field. So if you typically play against 2000 players, a sample zise of 1000 games would be required. If you were playing 180-mans, by contrast, you'd probably be fairly sure you could beat them if you played 90 of them and made money. Just how much money could vary hugely, as there is a lot of variance in the short run. For example, you could go on a heater and have a 50% ROI over 200 games, but only be on 10% ROI after 1000.
I'm afraid it's a very inexact science, so your desire to make predictions for long term success is pretty much impossible. After all, if you had a 50% ROI after 1 tournanment, you'd be naive to assume that you'll have the same 50% ROI after 50 or 100 tourneys of the same type.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 06:16 PM
(#5)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Hey,
You are asking about how many $1 games til you know you are definitely profitable, this is not the same as how many games until I have a fair idea of your ROI in the games - ROI is more precise than just profitable.

I think at least 1000 games of the similar structure $1 MTTs could give a reasonable approximation of your ROI in a vacuum, but that is not what you ask and not really worth considering if you wish to move up from $1 MTTs when you feel you are profitable and/or have the roll.
Also to play 1000 games to try to get a true picture of ROI is no great if you are developing over the course of the games, ie game 800 you presumably are more profitable than you were at game 8..

I think that if you are objective with your skill level, able to learn from the games you have played and are able to measure variance, then after 50 games you should have an idea of whether you will be profitable in $1 MTTs or not. Your actual ROI over such a short run could cover a huge range as Arty says, but you might have a fare idea of whether you will be profitable, after all profitable only means you are doing at least better than beating the rake.

It is important to have this idea asap because if you are not going to be profitable playing your game at a stake, then you don't want to play 1000 games to find out, you want to drop down or do some work if you don't think it will be profitable or move up if you already have the bankroll for $2.
 
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Mon Sep 16, 2013, 09:53 PM
(#6)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,423
Thanks everyone

I forgot to include some info so im sorry for that and also now since realised I didnt ask the question i wanted answering /and or have additional questions

I meant NL fullring (deep stack would be nice but not necessary and nothing else definitely no turbos)

@Moxie I fully agree about bankroll management and I already have a planned schedule had it for over 6 months so it may have changed

all the 25c games start at 3am...not ideal to say the least!!!.....Ive told pokerstars supprt about this in the past as they are missing out on a lot of European player potentially (a bi t like th e micro million schedules not being very Europe friendly)

also the 55c non turbo games dont fit into the tiems i can play usually 2 choices are midnight or 9am

sorry bout all the negatives just statin facts

good news is plently of choices @$1.10 11am/noon/4pm/10:45pm(capped)/11pm and midnight so 3 of the 6 look good here

Moxie i wish i could play the 25c ones tbh

Raccy nice stats.I only plan on playing between 2 and a dozen to test the waters (not sure which sites yet)

when did you decide to move up?

@Arty yeah i think i had seen or heard somewhere 1000 but wondered how this numebr go t plucke d out of the air so ty

@Prof

say you thought you were profitable @$1 would it be better to move to $2 or play 2 $1 ?

Im kind of doing it as an experiment to see where i do bad(or good) and then attempt to fil th e biggest leaks first somehow

yeah i now see your point as say you were crushin $1 you should move up right but becaus eof the variance how would Iknow without a huge sample size that I was just say being lucky @$2 ...I guess having a bankroll management plan woudl take thatinto account so only move back down based on $ not luck/variance

Be better to play lower really possibly but I dont like th estructures on the othe rsites although full tilt maybe a possibility iwill have to take a look into that

cheers

rolo
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 01:28 AM
(#7)
DonkeyJez's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 64
A quicker way to gauge your roi in mtt's would be to play some small field sng's like the 27/45/90 mans. They have less variance ,don't take hours to finish and you wouldn't need to play as many.
The fundamentals of mtt's and mtsng's are the same so if you post a positive roi for the sng's then you can assume you would for mtt's also.
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 04:28 AM
(#8)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
My biggest tracked win on Pokerstars is $66 although I did win the PSOP and the Pokercast game twice (around $700 for all 3 games).

Just don't worry about your ROI in MTTs, it's too hard to get any meaningful results unless you play many thousands. I have a 13% ROI in 7,000 STTs but yet a STT specialist told me my results were only 80% accurate. That gives you some idea of the volume needed to get your true ROI.

Just worry about making the best decisions in every hand. That's far more important than any group of results. Proper bankroll yourself and drop stakes if your bankroll can't take it.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 02:47 PM
(#9)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
@Prof

say you thought you were profitable @$1 would it be better to move to $2 or play 2 $1 ?

Im kind of doing it as an experiment to see where i do bad(or good) and then attempt to fil th e biggest leaks first somehow

yeah i now see your point as say you were crushin $1 you should move up right but becaus eof the variance how would Iknow without a huge sample size that I was just say being lucky @$2 ...I guess having a bankroll management plan woudl take thatinto account so only move back down based on $ not luck/variance
If I was profitable (or had the impression I was) at $1, then I would be considering playing $2, as I would want to know if I was profitable there too. I would not know if this was going to be more profitable than 2 x $1 MTTs, but I would want to find out!

If part of the reason for playing these games is to identify any leaks and develop, all the more reason for not worrying about your ROI. When you improve your game, you should improve your ROI from that point on.

I think the vast majority of players are worried about $ not ROI. In a perfect world you play at your current stake improve, build your bankroll, move up to the next stake, repeat. You should be happy with your play at current stake before moving up to what one assumes is more difficult waters, but players are certainly doing this before they know or particularly care what their trueish ROI at a stake is.
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 03:48 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
The last three posts are solid, and I heartily agree with all of them.

I don't have the time or inclination to play 1000 MTTs in the next few months, but multi-table SnGs run 24 hours a day, and they play in a similar way. 90-player SnGs in particular are a great way to get practice for all three stages of a tourney. There is a clear beginning, middle, and endgame in that format, so you have time to switch gears and go from tight (early) to loose (pre-bubble) to tight (post-bubble) to loose (short-handed and heads up). These tourneys are a great way to get "final table experience", as you'll make it to the final 9 fairly often, which is not something that happens very often if the field is over 2000 players.
As Darren says, determining your ROI is not all that important. Making a profit (of any size) is the aim.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 10:48 PM
(#11)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,423
hmm so bouncing between the levels moving up and down based on proper bankroll maangement is the answer really plus trying to improve as we go along

dont have a problem with moving back down when i moved up to the great hieghts of $1 was tricky at first(insane heater) yet I do still play 25c games if I spot easier games

@Don Jez (sorry dont liek calling you a donkey as I heard u are good) I didnt think thsi was true...

"A quicker way to gauge your roi in mtt's would be to play some small field sng's like the 27/45/90 mans"

I do play 45man SNG not many but thats my main game..thrown in some cash games but thats a different topic altogther

honestly have no idea of my true ROI at 45 man $1 SNG but lets just say its 40% (just an arbitary guess) how do I now gauge my ROI in large field MTT's from that please?

@prof "In a perfect world you play at your current stake improve, build your bankroll, move up to the next stake, repeat"

youve been there and done it and im curious very curious in fact what % of the improving comes from watching good players in your game at next level in your estimation ?

so moving back down is when you have bad luck or have stoppe learning.....know i have lot fundamentals to still learn first

Thanks guys
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 03:17 AM
(#12)
DonkeyJez's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 64
Knowing your actual roi will not really impact you in anyway other than piece of mind. Your main aim should be to find out if you are profitable in a tourney style game. The main problem of this is variance, so you need to play the smallest field tourneys to get a more accurate sample analysis.

But if you do want to find a rough roi you can plot the trend in your results.

ie from my own results.

no of players - roi%
9 - 5.2%
18 - 20.3%
27 - 23.6%
45 - 36%
50-179 - 67%
180-500 - 56%
500-1000 - 67%
1000+ - 44%

As you can see the general trend is more players = higher roi.

your 40% roi at 45mans correlates very well to my own results so this is a good guide. Knowing this you could say your roi at 1000+ field tourneys will be 40-60%.
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 08:03 PM
(#13)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
@prof "In a perfect world you play at your current stake improve, build your bankroll, move up to the next stake, repeat"

youve been there and done it and im curious very curious in fact what % of the improving comes from watching good players in your game at next level in your estimation ?
If the question is how much would I recommend watching players at the next level, I think it cant hurt, like I know some who will open a table at the next level and then look at the replayer after a load of hands have been played to compare differences, get a feel for it. But that is all I would want to do - get an idea of differences I can expect at the next level. But its not like I want to be getting into pots with the good players, so studying them in advance I would not personally be doing. Once I am in the games and have 500+ hands on what I perceive to be the good players then I will spend some time looking for their leaks.
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 09:24 PM
(#14)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,423
cool @DJez iwill have to try some

yeah prof i do that open up table of high stake playerrs and watch but I can hardly learn anything so do see your point

I go watch another vid try to nail some of th e basics that way the training be more beneficial
 
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Fri Sep 20, 2013, 10:53 AM
(#15)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
Thanks everyone

Raccy nice stats.I only plan on playing between 2 and a dozen to test the waters (not sure which sites yet)

when did you decide to move up?

rolo
I've never really moved up (or down) and that's something that you should know about many other players too. I never thought the < $1 tournaments were really worth the time so I never played them. I think my first MTT ever was a $2 one but I'm not sure. I've been playing mostly $2-$11 MTTs ever since just because I've had the bankroll for them. The level of players isn't very different between $1 and $2 MTTs and even the $11 MTTs have some real fish participating. A bigger difference is probably that the players fight harder for the chips in the pot when they've got more money invested in the tournament (or maybe it's just me). If you can play solid poker, or let's say, go to the tournament hand analysis section and see if you have your own educated opinion of how to play those hands, all you need is some luck and lots of discipline and you're in the money.

There are a few tells though if you're playing at a level way above your head. You might be constantly outplayed by your opponents, i.e. losing big pots without a showdown, or not winning pots without a showdown.

I've you've got $2, I'd definitely go for two $1 MTTs rather than one $2 MTT.
 
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Sat Sep 21, 2013, 10:28 PM
(#16)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,423
Never really thought about that and startin higher i use bankroll maangement and if i ever do attempt to move up...if i do bad thru bad play or ba d luck i will move down and at least i be comfortable back at my present level kinda a safety net plus nee d to be able to multitable and while learnign this fine art definitely prefer being at a very low level as i can lose lots.....even 3 tabels of play money and head goes in a spin if im doin well in all 3 late on usually

The badbeats(sorry to mention that topic) can be unbelievable at 25c games and in play money obv but its such a hard game to get good at that theres luck involved i do ok


"go to the tournament hand analysis section and see if you have your own educated opinion of how to play those hands"

This i believe to be good advice unfortunately im not at that standard yet

During live trianing say trainer asks 12 questions i used t get about 3 correct and some are yes or no answers so some by luck but im upto around between 7 to 9 now out of 12 but I sometiems get the right answer but it for the wrong reasons
 

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