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5NL Zoom - c/r on the flop?

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5NL Zoom - c/r on the flop? - Tue Sep 17, 2013, 08:45 AM
(#1)
Hytres1644's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 7
Hi everyone,

Hope you could help me to analyze this play:

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...965_769F48AE2F

Pre Pretty standard I guess 3bet was so small that folding was not an option for me with a suited connector.

OTF Flop is great. TP, Flush and straight draws. I am not so sure about the c/r. The idea was to rep a set to get AQ and AK to fold and maybe overpairs and to disguish my hand when I hit the flush/straight/set/2p. When he calls, I think his range is QQ+ or AhKh (77/88/J9 would not have 3b prf). Although I am only 34% favourite, when I hit I can be sure I have the best hand.

OTT Turn card is a brick. Not sure if continueing is right here as I have only 29% chance to hit here. But I did not like to check. First because it shows a lot of weakness. If I really had a set, it makes no sense to check on this board. When he bets I am in a though position and probably have to fold. Secondly, because I am continueing my aggression he may fold his overcards now (with more than 30% fold equity the bet is profitable).

OTR Another brick Chances that he folds to a third barrel are zero to none. Therefore it was an easy c/f for me
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 12:40 PM
(#2)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Hi hytres

Pre flop I would also feel compelled to call the click back 3bet. Villain so far seems to be a bit fishy.

On this flop I think we should either be x/calling or taking the lead - since he seems like a weak player absent reads I prefer to d-bet. I don't like a check raise here as we have lots of equity with no real reason to turn our hand inert a bluff.

I also don't like the idea of trying to fold out AQ+ because we should be looking for value from worse hands not helping them to play perfectly.

We should definitely be betting this turn card.

The river puts a 4th card to the straight on board which is pretty nasty. I think x/folding is fine. Don't think its likely that villain has a straight but our hand could still only be 2nd best - but he seems pretty bad so just might have it. Either way it's pretty close.

Personally I would shove the river and hope for a fold (not saying its the best play just what I would do) as we don't really have much behind

Last edited by Low Rated; Tue Sep 17, 2013 at 12:42 PM..
 
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Tue Sep 17, 2013, 01:57 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Hytres,

Our hand has the highest equity OTF; that's because we have two draws to go with our TP. The problem is that if we miss on the turn our equity drops significantly; I'm going to give an extreme case example to explain myself.

Let's assume villain has AA and we have JhTh; OTF we have 56% equity but on any turn that does not improve our TP our equity will drop to 37% - to realize our equity we need to get all the money in OTF so I think x/raising all in here will do the trick.
The problem with x/r 3x is that when villain flats we will have a weird stack OTT when we miss, exactly what happened in the hand.

I think we can take three different lines here: a) x/shove b) donk bet c) x/c
I kind of disagree with the turn bet as played. I think its one of those few spots where we can x/c the turn after we have x/r-ed the river because I want to control the size of the pot OOP with just TPMK and I want to see the river card. I hate to bet and get shoved on OTT.
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 09:51 AM
(#4)
Hytres1644's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 7
Both thanks a lot for your feedback. It really helps to see the flaws in my thoughts. Just a few questions though.

You both suggest to d/bet the flop. What is our plan if he calls and the board runs out as it does? Double barrel and x/f the river?

And Geo, if we check the turn and he bets. We have to call almost any bet and we hit the the river, we would problably have to lead the river again (as the card would be very scary for him and he is therefore most likely to check behind). Aren't we playing our hand faced-up then?
 
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Wed Sep 18, 2013, 11:30 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Check/shoving OTF is pretty spewy given the stacks behind.

I like the c/r OTF, because as mentioned we have such a tremendous amount of equity. OTT, we have showdown with our top pair and room to improve with all our draws, so i'd like a check/call for pot control (although this can get awkward OOP).

If the river bricks, we can c/f or c/shove if our hand improves (9, T, or heart)

Last edited by birdayy; Wed Sep 18, 2013 at 11:32 AM..
 

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