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QQ in BB facing CO raise and SB 3bet 10NL Reg tables

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QQ in BB facing CO raise and SB 3bet 10NL Reg tables - Mon Sep 23, 2013, 04:42 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
This was the very first hand of my session yesterday. The CO and SB were both aggressive players over the samples I had on them.

At the time, the stats I had on CO were enough to suggest his range could be fairly wide, he was playing 17/14 with a 5% 3bet. Not that 3bet is important for this hand as such. Sample of 267 hands,

SB has a 3bet of 11% and is 20/17 over 414 hands. I give his 3bet very little credence, I assume that he is a decent short stacker who tries to use his stack size to dissuade marginal hands from continuing.

Anyway, because of the above, I decide to 4bet. When CO calls I tend to think his hand is leaning more to AK and 99/TT+. The flop is J high with two 8's. I'm happy to cbet this flop, when he shoves I fear the worst, but I have already decided when I cbet that I am committed to the hand/pot and make the call.



I guess the crucial points I need clarification on are as follows:

4bet, correct play or spewy/aggressive?

Cbet, given I 4bet and the flop doesnt look too dangerous, I think it was standard, was I wrong to cbet? I dont think so but not 100% certain. I dont see what other line makes sense.

Calling off, I felt pot committed, I felt he was aggressive enough that he could be doing it with worse. Though this is maybe a bit hopeful. His line is monumentally strong given he has no real fold equity. Should I ever be folding?

Thanks in advance.

Editing to add, I retained composure and turned it into a winning session of more than a BI.
 
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Mon Sep 23, 2013, 05:34 PM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If i was villain there i would fold AK when you 4bet the shorty and continue with QQ KK AA, i might even fold QQ unless you 3bet a ton and even then its hard to call cus you just 4bet a shorty.
 
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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 01:55 AM
(#3)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
Hey. 17/14 is semi-LAG in the case of FR so I think villain will definitely be opening wide from the CO, which maybe why the SB 3-bet him, in the case that he has similar stats on him. If SB was 100bb deep then I would prefer to cold call the 3-bet rather than 4-bet but I think a 4-bet would be best here, trying to isolate and get him to put his money in on AQs+/JJ,TT.

In terms of the 4-bet, why is it so big? Making it 3x of the original 3-bet might make it hard for villains to continue with speculative hands in their range. When villain 2 flats he is most of the time only doing this with the top of his range AK+/JJ+ but if he thinks the SB will flat as well he could continue with some speculative combinations some of the time.

OTF considering the size of the pot and the money behind, the money was probably going in here alot of the time, I don't think we could fold after that c-bet. Against a JJ+/AK range we are losing here 56%-44% apox. but if he also has TT in his range we are a slight favorite (just saying). Our only options are x/f, or get the money in OTF. I think it might just be somewhat of a cooler but I'm really interested in hearing what the HA's and other players think.
 
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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 02:13 AM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by Low Rated View Post
In terms of the 4-bet, why is it so big? Making it 3x of the original 3-bet might make it hard for villains to continue with speculative hands in their range.
Yeah, I tend to agree with this, I should have been more careful with my bet sizing.

If I was playing the hand again I would probably be going something more like $2.30-2.50. It didn't need to be so big and you are 100% correct that it makes it a lot more difficult for him to call with big Ace and other marginal hands which I should be looking to keep in there.

In general I do try to 4bet smaller unless for pure value from a really loose player who I am pretty confident will call with his entire range.

I think giving up on that flop is too weak personally but he does look strong when he just calls. Its either really week or really strong...I think.

Last edited by bhoylegend; Tue Sep 24, 2013 at 02:49 AM..
 
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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 02:48 AM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Here is a hand where I think I 4bet to a more considered size in a situation not totally dissimilar to the hand I have posted for review. There are a few variables including the players but the stack sizes of the three protagonists are close:

 
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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 11:19 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi bhoy,

Quote:
4bet, correct play or spewy/aggressive?
I would typically flat here, although 4-betting isn't bad given the SB's large 3b% and his stack size, as I'd expect him to stack off with worse pairs, probably 99+, and AK so we can get it in good pre here vs. him. Don't really understand where the read on the cut off is coming from that suggests he's wide... 17/14 is TAG, 3b% (not relevant here) is not out of line, and no steal %'s given but most TAG's don't steal much from the CO, they do it from the button/SB, if at all.

Quote:
Cbet, given I 4bet and the flop doesnt look too dangerous, I think it was standard, was I wrong to cbet? I dont think so but not 100% certain. I dont see what other line makes sense.
Yeah, I'd c-bet here. You could check/raise all in if we thought he'd bet his pairs and AK high, but don't really want to give a free card to AK so betting is preferred imo. His cold call of our 4b pre should be very alarming coming from a TAG.

Quote:
Calling off, I felt pot committed, I felt he was aggressive enough that he could be doing it with worse. Though this is maybe a bit hopeful. His line is monumentally strong given he has no real fold equity. Should I ever be folding?
I honestly think this is a fold. Again, you gave no post flop aggression stats so not sure where the read is coming from that he's so aggressive... the stats given are just standard TAG numbers. The next worse hand after ours is AJ, and I would never expect a standard take to show up with AJ here, they would fold to our preflop 4b all day long with AJ. It's also extremely unlikely he's making some kind of move unless he's on tilt, as you point out, he can't possible expect us to be folding now. So I'm pretty confident we'll get shown JJ+ here, and we beat non of that and only tie 1 combo. I think we should c-bet a bit smaller here, like $3, and fold to a shove, as gross as that sounds.


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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 11:25 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Just reading other replies... I don't consider 17/14 LAG in full ring, those look like reasonable TAG numbers to me. Maybe it's slightly closer to LAG than nit, but the stats given provide no evidence he's opening the cut off wide imo, and his cold call of our 4b should be setting off huge alarm bells. If we can include all combos of TT and AK in his preflop cold call range and post flop stack off range on a J88 board, then we should bet/call, but I think that's highly optimistic.


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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 12:23 PM
(#8)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I don't consider the guy to be LAG.

For players I have any sort of a sample on (200+ hands) he is above the average of 14/10. Not by a huge amount but he is on the higher side. I didn't post the steal % as I didn't have it at the time of the decision. Having looked now his overall steal % is 35% and 30% from the cut-off. Those numbers are accurate as of now but may not have been the same at that time.

I guess my definition of wide is different being that I am on the nittier side, though I am loosening up slowly, I just meant that at the time I considered that he could be calling the 4bet with less than AA/KK. Though as I said above I admit I thought his line looked immensely strong. Of the pair hands I think he could be taking that line with, at a stretch, and it really is a stretch, there isnt a lot I am beating. And the more realistic hands all have me crushed JJ/KK/AA. Even AK has outs.

I didnt consider folding to the shove because I had already put so much in due to the poorly sized 4bet and the cbet. Which is probably a leak because when I called I was sure I was behind. So I could have saved that extra little amount.

All in all, I don't recall being in that exact situation with QQ, and talking it through has got my mind a bit clearer on it.
 
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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 01:43 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
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We need 16.6% equity to break even calling the shove. Vs. JJ/KK/AA we have 9.7%. Even if we add in the other QQ combo for chops, we only go up to 12.25%. We really need him to be losing his mind with TT or AK as well here to making calling work.

Very nice job not letting this hand tilt you and recovering for a solid session!


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Tue Sep 24, 2013, 11:37 PM
(#10)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
I always thought anything around 18+/14 was LAG-ish for FR, my bad . 5% 3-bet really should have given it away. Awesome analysis as always Dave
 

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