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25nl zoom AA check fold flop spot?

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25nl zoom AA check fold flop spot? - Wed Oct 02, 2013, 09:54 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi all, vs
UTG 23/16/4,1AF 13% f3b 366 hands
MP 29/19/2,4AF 12,2 3bet 0% f3b 194 hands
CO 25/23/4,0AF 20%3bet 0% f3b 108 hands

So all have reg stats, MP being a bit more loose. They also don't seem to fold to 3bets at all.

I should have 3bet bigger being this deep, probably $3.50 would be ok, 4 seems way too much, what size would you recommend?

And the main reason for posting this hand, is it possible that check folding (depending on the betsize) would be the more +ev play? i mean i just couldn't think on how would i win this hand being OOP vs 3, on that board.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($16.54)
Hero (SB) ($45.96)
BB ($35.08)
UTG ($47.99)
MP ($38.25)
CO ($40.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
UTG raises to $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.25, MP calls $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Flop: ($11.25) 10, 7, 8 (4 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero...
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 01:35 AM
(#2)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Hello, my 3bet size OOP is 10 BB's + bets of cold callers, so I think I would 3bet 3.5 and flop is clear bet fold. check is mistake I think.
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 09:15 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Carlos,
I think I would have gone with 3.5$ too; I think 4$ would suffice also, I really want to thin the number of players that see a flop here.

OTF, I think we should be betting to get value from 99/JJ/QQ, TP, and draws. If we are raised, I think I would call and reevaluate the turn.
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 11:36 AM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If we dont get raised are we betting on 2 3 4 5 a K or an A on the turn? as the other cards will probably give one of these a better hand.
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 11:53 AM
(#5)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Geo, I would like to debate this hand a little more if you don't mind.

Lets plan our hand, keep in mind that there is no card that make us the nuts.

Turns that we like: A, 2, 3, K, Q, 5 (No hearts) 16 cards
Turns that can go either way, 7,8 4 (no hearts) 8 cards
Turn we hate: any heart, J,T,9,6... 23 cards

Now its hards to say how often, but given preflop action, and having 3 players left to act i would say that we are going to get raised alot.

- When we cbet, we still have to avoid 23 cards on turn that will be hard for us to bet, if we get called on two spots we have to either shove on the turn hoping that we are ahead or check-fold depending on the turn card because the pot would be so big.

- Lets say we cbet 6.8 and get raised 2 x(optimistic size), the pot if we call is going to be around $38 on the turn, so we have invest 65bb and we are hoping that he gives up or hitting a card we like and call hoping he is on a draw?

If we shove to the raise of one player on the flop:

Board: 7d 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.174% 44.15% 01.02% 41089 949.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 54.826% 53.81% 01.02% 50072 949.50 { QQ-77, AhQh, Ah7h, Ah2h, KhQh, QhJh, J9s, T8s+, 98s, 9h7h, 87s, 65s, J9o, T9o, 98o, 65o }


So for all this my preference would be in this order:

1.- check (calling-folding depending on how action goes)
2.- bet/shoving if we think villain will have mostly draws
3.- bet/calling

What you think about this?
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 01:32 PM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey Carlos,

Okay lets take a look at this again. It's a sticky spot, I agree on that!
Let's think about the kind of hands that see a flop here:
I think you agree that AA/KK would be more likely to be 4betting here so I think the 3bet call ranges for each position will look something like this:

UTG: { QQ-22, AK, AQs }
MP: { QQ-22, AK, AQs }
CO: { JJ-22, AQs, AJs, KQs-76s, KJs-T8s } - I think the CO would have the widest range here because they are last to act and get the best odds.

Hand 0: 19.125% 18.53% 00.60% 48893703 1573926.17 { QQ-22, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 19.125% 18.53% 00.60% 48893703 1573926.17 { QQ-22, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 26.775% 26.07% 00.70% 68794464 1859415.67 { JJ-22, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s }
Hand 3: 34.976% 34.58% 00.39% 91263556 1031506.00 { AcAd }

But lets see how their range connect with the flop.
On Th 8h 7d, a range of { QQ-22, AK, AQs, AJs, KQs-76s, KJs, T8s } will have:

2pair+: ~17% {TT, 88, 77, J9s, T8s, 87s}
Overpair: ~11% {QQ, JJ}
TP: ~9% {QTs, JTs, T9s}
Weak Pair: ~40% {99, 66-22, 98s, 76s}
FD: ~8% {Ahkh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, 7h6h}
OESD+pair: ~11% {99, T9s, 98s}

AGainst that entire range of hands our hand has 66% equity OTF.

Now lets say we bet, what hands call?

TP, Overpairs, Pair+draw, Gutshot+Overs: {QQ, JJ, AJs, KJs, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 99, 66, 98s, 76s} 49 combos or 47%
Here against a call continuation range our hand has 70% equity

What hands raise?

2pair+: {TT, 88, 77, J9s, T8s, 87s} 18 combos
FD: {AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs, KJs, QJs, J9s, 76s} 8 combos - even here I think some non nut flush draw hands will elect to call rather than raise
So an ambitious 26% of the time we will get raised

Against a raising range our hand has 25% equity. Hmm... So it seems we should be folding to a raise since there are more made hands than FDs 18 combos > 8 combos


Come to think about it checking here might be an alternative. We can keep their entire range in, we control the size of the pot and we see all the action unfold infront of us
Could be close here Carlos.

a) bet/fold
b) check/call or check/fold if it was bet and raised
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 04:47 PM
(#7)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Thanks Geo, for the deep analisis, i agree that is close.

I think i would give MP a more wide range, since he has 29 VPIP but doesn't affects the analisis.

Thanks again.
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 12:56 AM
(#8)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I don't have time to read all the posts, but as far as how to react to a raise should we bet here, its an easy fold. Like not very close at all.

So if that's not clear, the key is to think of how people preflop ranges intersect with this flop.

So think of these ingredients 1) hands that put 0.50 in preflop 2) then call a three-bet 3) then hit this flop 4) then raise this flop four-way.

I honestly don't mind checking, but that's if you are comfortable reading opponents out of position and getting away. If we bet we are betting to bet fold and there is no great size. 4.50 maybe.

Honestly check-folding a lot of the time would be fine.

 
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Mon Oct 07, 2013, 05:39 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey everybody, never stopped by to mention this, but I really enjoyed the discussion of this hand. Multi-way pots are always so tricky, and so is playing out of position - so to be in that spot with a wet board, holding a premium pair, witha 3-bet pot ...


Carlos, what was the ending to your hand? I just wound up in a similar spot, and couldn't find it in me to check-fold. After the villain re-raised my c-bet with 2 people left to act, I said to him in chat:

TrustySam said, "ahhh ... just my luck you hit ..." ... and then I went all-in

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...613_9933ECC3A0

The villain was a 4-tabling Supernova, and being the microstakes whale that I am, couldn't let go of my AA. He didn't answer me in chat, but he might as well have - so obvious he had a set. The funniest part is that he's already moved up to 4-tabling 25nl - like he must just be getting started with zoom or something, took one look at me and thought like, 'oh, this is just *too* easy'


The hand won't load up in the replayer. Anyways, I was wondering - are squeezes into 3 people, including UTG a lot more common at higher stakes? Because someone yesterday did a squeeze into 3 of us while I was UTG, with QJs, which isn't something I've seen done too often before? And then for UTG to call my squeeze with 44 - although I made it way too small ... should have stuck with the 1.70 I was contemplating, but got greedy ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 05:47 PM..
 
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Mon Oct 07, 2013, 09:18 PM
(#10)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi Sam,

I would have made it 1.70 as well maybe even a little bit more.

I don't really call small pp to 3bets unless deep, but in this spot were both callers behind him have deep stacks, and you making a little small 3b for the money already on the pot, i think it's a really great spot call with small pp.

Tbh its a really easy fold here specially vs and UTG open, he would have to be very lose to have A9s, also since your 3bet looks to be a super strong hand he won't 4bet here QQ most of the time, so all sets combos are on his range, also he is raising into three other players thats normally a sign of strenght.

As for how my hand ended:

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($16.54)
Hero (SB) ($45.96)
BB ($35.08)
UTG ($47.99)
MP ($38.25)
CO ($40.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
UTG raises to $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.25, MP calls $2.25, CO calls $2.25

Flop: ($11.25) 10, 7, 8 (4 players)
Hero bets $6, 1 fold, MP calls $6, CO raises to $37.55 (All-In), Hero folds, MP calls $29.50 (All-In)

Running it twice

First Turn: ($44.13) 4
First River: ($44.13) K

Second Turn: ($44.13) 6
Second River: ($44.13) J

Board 1: 10, 7, 8, 4, K
Board 2: 10, 7, 8, 6, J

Total pot: $88.25 | Rake: $2

Results below:
Click to show hidden text


So both players were full of it lol.

His shove looked like a draw to me but on that board can imagine some players shoving with two pair and better as well, this deep think is better to take the safe road and fold.
 
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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 05:12 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
So both players were full of it lol.

His shove looked like a draw to me but on that board can imagine some players shoving with two pair and better as well, this deep think is better to take the safe road and fold.

Woah! lol


You know what was the part of the discussion I really liked from above was where you noticed that there were 23 turn cards that were going to be super bad - that's half the deck! And then AA starts off strong, but then yeah on that board there's like so little chance of improving if the turn card is one of those bad cards. And then since if you called MP was likely to call too, and all 3 of you would have been all-in, there'd be the river to worry about too. So that was a pretty neat fold on the flop, even if you were ahead at the time.


HUDs are great to have for spots like these, because MP and CO acted so true to their stats:

MP - VPIP/PFR low ratio = lots of calling with speculative hands, even to 3-bets
CO - AF of 4 = possibly aggro with draws

Still kind of surprising to see both of them stacking off so light though



That makes total sense now that UTG called because 3 of them were deep-stacked - sometimes I play with a deep stack, but still haven't learned all the additional considerations we should be making when *deep stacked*. It's on my list, but my priority is still to try and learn to play, deep or otherwise - it's taking a while ... poker not so easy

My call's so embarrassing, but it is an ongoing leak, so I figured why not share Most of the time I'll fold in spots like this, but every once in a while when I'm not playing my best, and a pot's got a lot going on with it, and my mind's still on the mistake I made on a previous street, I'm more prone to inexplicable spew

At least there was something to be learned from showdown, since I was sure he had QQ or JJ - guess maybe the lesson to be learned about 3-bets is that they need to be larger for people less prone to folding - people with stats showing them to be like that, or if several players are deep?


Thanks Carlos

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 05:16 PM..
 
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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 06:04 PM
(#12)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I was just playing around with equilab and how come when you have both players drawing the nut flush has more equity there than AA but AA vs the nut flush was like 60 40
 
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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 08:08 PM
(#13)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I was just playing around with equilab and how come when you have both players drawing the nut flush has more equity there than AA but AA vs the nut flush was like 60 40

Wow, never even noticed that Carlos wasn't even the pot odds favorite to win by the river!




Sometimes the odds for these multi-way pots can be so unpredictable. One time I flopped a straight vs top set vs the nut flush draw plus pair, and we all had the same amount of equity - that really surprised me.



Looking over the odds when the 9c8c is removed, it's almost like all his equity went back to AA? Maybe the outs that would give 9c8c a win over the other 2 aren't outs that would help Ah5h, or something like that?




Not sure ...
 
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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 08:40 PM
(#14)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Its because if 89 folds, his outs are good cards for me, so pretty much what you said . Interesting that I wasnt a favorite despite having a made hand, and none of them had like a relly strong combo draw.

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:46 PM..
 

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