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5NL FAST (6 max) - AQo (MP) Vs Raise (CO) on Mono Tone Flop

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5NL FAST (6 max) - AQo (MP) Vs Raise (CO) on Mono Tone Flop - Thu Oct 03, 2013, 11:49 AM
(#1)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Stats

Hero (MP): $8.52 (VPIP: 15.28, PFR: 10.57, 3Bet Preflop: 3.73, Hands: 149)
CO: $10.53 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has
fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.24, CO raises to $0.55, Hero calls $0.31

Turn: ($1.47, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15

River: ($3.77, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.50

Questions:

1) Should I fold after Villain min raises OTF... or poss x/f OTT?
2) Other than made flush... What hands would Villain bet 3 streets?
3) As played... Should I x/c or x/f OTR with TPTK as changes nothing?

Welcome your comments / feedback.

BR

Tony [aka Prodigy237]
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 01:58 PM
(#2)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
Hi Prodigy,

If I get raised by a guy I have ten hands on, on a monotone board I usually just give up without a good made hand or the nut flush draw. Most people at theese stakes dont raise monotone board light imo.

In this case villain should not have two pair to often, since it should not be in his preflop calling range. So if we try to construct a flop raising range for him, it might look like this:

JJ-TT, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c, 4d4s, 4d4c, 4s4c, KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, 8h7h, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc

although he might only play sets and flopped flushes this aggressive and call with overpairs or the AhQx.

Non the less your hand does pretty poorly vs this range and its hard to continue oop, so I would fold flop.

Once you cald the flop, I would probably call the turn and fold to the river bet since he wont bet TT and JJ OTR and so you are just hoping to split with AQ.

Looks kind of nitty my line, but as I said imo people dont raise this flop light in general.
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 03:43 PM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Nitty (likely) player is having a set or flush here, definitely after river bet. Also min raise on the flop is kind of saying he has flush more than a set.

His min raise on the flop is weird. He is having small hand or really big hand. I can't really see what hand but Ahxh he holds with that kind of confident. I think his river bet size is directed more for value-side.

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 06:09 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 03, 2013, 07:37 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I'd snap fold to the flop raise. Villain is hardly ever airballing here. At worst, he has a better flush draw than yours. Most of the time he's raising for pure value. If you call the raise, how are you hoping the board runs out? If you hit the ace or queen, you still lose to flushes, sets, AK and random two pair hands. Making the flush yourself could be just as disasterous, as you'd only have the third nuts, and on a scary four-flush board, worse hands won't pay you off, but the nuts will gladly take your stack.
You have very little equity against villain's range, as I don't think he's ever raising the flop with something like :. In my experience, villains play montone flops pretty honestly. Villain isn't bluff-raising, and he's almost always barrelling, so fold on the flop and move on to the next hand before you face more expensive and difficult decisions on the turn and river.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Oct 03, 2013 at 07:40 PM..
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 05:42 AM
(#5)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I'd snap fold to the flop raise. Villain is hardly ever airballing here. At worst, he has a better flush draw than yours. Most of the time he's raising for pure value. If you call the raise, how are you hoping the board runs out? If you hit the ace or queen, you still lose to flushes, sets, AK and random two pair hands. Making the flush yourself could be just as disasterous, as you'd only have the third nuts, and on a scary four-flush board, worse hands won't pay you off, but the nuts will gladly take your stack.
You have very little equity against villain's range, as I don't think he's ever raising the flop with something like :. In my experience, villains play montone flops pretty honestly. Villain isn't bluff-raising, and he's almost always barrelling, so fold on the flop and move on to the next hand before you face more expensive and difficult decisions on the turn and river.
Hi Arty [& guys],

Thank you for your feedback.

Ordinarily, I would agree & b/f OTF, but do you think Villain would raise if he had a made flush... as he would miss potential value on later streets? I agree he may raise if he hits a set or has an o/pair in an attempt to protect his hand, but then not sure he would continue to barrel both OTT & OTR with these hands... He would however continue if as you say he has the nut or better f/draw & if another heart hits I think I have little option but to x/f?

With only 10 hands [& no information], I'm looking for bet sizing, timing tells & whilst his 3 barrels look v strong [on paper] I wasn't feeling it at the time... Assuming Villain is only playing 11% [... although small sample] his range would look like 44+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+ & my hand stands up reasonably well against this range & improves OTT. Even if you include hands like KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, 7h8h, I'm still getting circa. 54% equity to make the call OTR?

As it stands I decided to make the call OTR... Villain showed

BR

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:26 AM..
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 06:17 AM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigy237 View Post
do you think Villain would raise if he had a made flush... as he would miss potential value on later streets?
Many players would slowplay a flopped flush, but I am raising with it whether I have a baby flush or the nuts. In both cases, the raise is for value, and for protection. If I had , then I want to charge single big hearts, overpairs and sets. Even the nut flush isn't immortal, as sets will have outs to boats/quads, and there's also an open-ended straight flush draw if you want to factor in two-outers.
Another reason to raise flopped flushes is because a fourth flush card on the turn either gives your opponent the best hand, or it kills your action, as the board is so scary.
Since the board won't turn ugly all that often (if you flop a made flush, then a flush draw only has seven outs) you're actually missing value by not raising the flop if you hit the flush. Raising a made flush is also somewhat deceptive, because villains will usually put you on a draw, because they expect you to slowplay monsters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prodigy237 View Post
Assuming Villain is only playing 11% [... although he could have been card dead] his range would look like 44+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+ & my hand stands up reasonably well against this range & improves OTT. Even if you include hands like KhJh, KhTh, JhTh, 7h8h, I'm still getting circa. 54% equity to make the call OTR?

As it stands I decided to make the call OTR... Villain showed
The pre-flop range looks OK, but how many of the hands in that range actually raise the flop? There's 9 combos of sets and about the same number of flopped flushes. A few more combos have bigger flush draws than yours. Hands like and ATo with no heart aren't getting to the river. Villain's barrelling range is pretty narrow.
It's interesting that this villain was prepared to semi-bluff with just the , and I guess he has to barrel when he makes top pair, but and might be literally the only value hands that take this triple-barrel line that you actually beat. You need 54% equity to call on the river, but there are a lot more than 2 combos that beat you. You're probably only good about 10% of the time, if that.


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 06:30 AM..
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 07:08 AM
(#7)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Many players would slowplay a flopped flush, but I am raising with it whether I have a baby flush or the nuts. In both cases, the raise is for value, and for protection. If I had , then I want to charge single big hearts, overpairs and sets.
Agreed, but wouldn't you make your raise (2bet) bigger OTF... say $0.75 or $0.80 to charge these hands? If Villain had raised bigger I'm letting this go & moving on to the next one.

As for other hands that may continue [semi bluff] & barrel 3 streets that I beat [poss]... all Ahx hands incl. Ah9x, Ah6x, Ah4x [... chopping with AhQx]. Not sure many Villains at this level would continue to barrel with baby flush OTR as its poss I may be slow playing the nuts & come over the top?

Thanks again.

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

PS. Also updated my notes on Villain... prepared to 3 barrel with f/draw & TPGK

Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 07:53 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 08:58 AM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I would generally make a larger raise for value (or as a semi-bluff), but it seems many players are having success with smaller raises or even minraises, precisely because their customers can't find a fold. I tend to avoid Zoom, but in that format in particular, minraises with the effective nuts seem to be rife and are incredibly annoying. If you don't have a draw to the nuts, then just fold to a minraise. Don't pay off the fish because they "give you a good price". You're still losing!

Your other comment seems contradictory. You assume that ace high draws would triple barrel bluff, but that made flushes wouldn't bet the river. I would think the exact opposite is the case. Villains are much more likely to triple with a made flush than with a draw that misses.
In the rare overflush situation, most players are going broke as it's a cooler, and it should be all in on the flop, unless both players are chronic slowplayers. If two players flop a flush and all the money doesn't get in the middle, then at least one player - if not both - made a mistake.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 09:29 AM
(#9)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Don't pay off the fish because they "give you a good price". You're still losing!
You're absolutely right... although I think the PC term is now "recreational players" LOL

It is becoming a little more challenging playing ZOOM (6max) tables... I have noticed a lot more Villains limp & RR pre-flop; short stacks shove / fold play & some difficult spots OTR [see my hand reviewed by xflixx in Grinding It Up Challenge Video Day #30].

Quote:
Your other comment seems contradictory. You assume that ace high draws would triple barrel bluff, but that made flushes wouldn't bet the river. I would think the exact opposite is the case. Villains are much more likely to triple with a made flush than with a draw that misses.
Sorry... Only in that made 'baby' flushes have showdown value whereas Ah f/draw would have to bet in order to win the pot.

Cheers,

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:06 AM..
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 07:41 PM
(#10)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Timing tells are great! However, these tells are hard to get and even more hard to understand. I know teachers know some timing tells here, but they have not shared their knowledge. It is even possible that they don't really know these tells as a fact, but as a feeling they are not quite understanding.

That said I usually go by feeling (ie timing tells) but unfortunately that doesn't make a good player. Quite the opposite.

Last edited by braveslice; Fri Oct 04, 2013 at 08:20 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 05:55 AM
(#11)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
Timing tells are great! However, these tells are hard to get and even more hard to understand. I know teachers know some timing tells here, but they have not shared their knowledge. It is even possible that they don't really know these tells as a fact, but as a feeling they are not quite understanding.

That said I usually go by feeling (ie timing tells) but unfortunately that doesn't make a good player. Quite the opposite.
Hi brave,

The problem is that timing tells are very subjective... Everyone is different, so there are no hard & fast rules. All you can do is make the right decision with the information you have at the time & accept that sometimes you are going to get it wrong.

In reality, timing tells are generally only useful Vs New / Recr Players, but even then all other factors still have to be right to continue e.g. odds, [+ EV] call etc. The regs & better players will use them to deceive & appear weak when they're actually sitting on a monster.

GL at the tables.

BR

Tony [aka Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 06:07 AM..
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 07:44 PM
(#12)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Totally agree.

Btw, just watched xflixx Grindign it UP! Day 34 (youtube), where he used partly a timing tell to call a pot sized bet on the river. His hand was 7s7h, and table was 5dQcQs4s on the turn, and the villain made a snap raise.
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 07:26 AM
(#13)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
If theres one thing i learnt at 5nl now its no one is capable of making big bluffs apart from a select few who i just call down and stack them. Seen as he min raised the flop i would peel just because i see players min raising these flops at zoom with nothing, when he barrels the turn though his bets look like there for value so i would just fold. He might just think that because you never raised the flop you dont have a flush so hes betting his TP for value and protection but we dont know that so i think its just a fold.
 

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