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Bad beat / Implied odds question

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Bad beat / Implied odds question - Thu Oct 03, 2013, 11:35 PM
(#1)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Hi its a 45 man 25c game non turbo

This guy had recently been moved to the table so only 7 hands on him

Im pretty sure my play was good..although please analyse that but was his play good?..I know sometiems both can make correct plays and yet can only be one winner(unless split pot)

Main question here is was his play good did he have the correct implied odds ?

Please help

reads were 7 hands vp 14 PFR 14 steal 100% AF 1



Just looked back at table he just chased with Ax soooted and busted KK

Wasnt going to paste the result but as your good an d it dont influence you I included it

Dont think i could do anything differently but could he have?

rolo...so sick of losing lol off to watch vids
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 12:24 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi rolo834!

The key here will be... bet sizes, bet sizes, bet sizes.

With AQ in the BB, I get a raise to 75 from the button. I'm going to 3-bet here and the key is the sizing of it. I need to size it between 3X the opp's bet and a pot-sized raise (if the pot-sized raise is larger). Due to this, I will raise to 225. I do not want to raise to less or I can be giving the opp the right odds to try to outdraw me.

I flop top 2 pair and I'm going to lead out with a value bet here. Once again, the key is the sizing of it. Against one opp, the standard sizing is 1/2 pot, so I will bet 218 chips.. no more, no less. I need to keep all of my bet sizes standard to help conceal the strength of my hand. Players that bet more with better hands and less with marginal ones are basically turning their cards face-up to an observant opponent.

The turn 10 completes a straight to KJ, but an opp with this hand should not be calling the flop bet, as doing so is a -EV play for them. Once again, I'm going to make a standard value bet, which is 1/2 pot.. BUT.. this is over 1/3 of my stack, which means I'm pot-committed. Due to this, I need to SHOVE the turn. I do not want to make an abnormal bet. These abnormal bets are tells as to the strength of my hand and need to be avoided. If I wasn't pot-committed, I would bet 1/2 pot. No more, no less.

Yes, the opp got lucky, as they made a bad call on the flop, as they had to put 240 into a pot that would be 915 (26.2%). Only having a gutshot, they had 4 outs or 8% of equity in their hand on the flop... so they expect to lose 18.2% of the chips they put into this pot!

The key is to always make standard bet sizes, not more, not less, so that I do not give off a tell as to the strength of my hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 06:58 PM
(#3)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
As it doesnt come natural to me yet(toplay well/perfectly) and bad memory so hard to learn so sorry if i ask same questions over and over but once it sinks in I will have it just takes long time

Cannot get multiquote thing working so haveto do it my way

Yes this really really helps thank you...after the game I realised I should have raised 3 tiems his raise but in game and playing fast i got quite near

I thought this "but an opp with this hand should not be calling the flop bet, as doing so is a -EV play for them" sothey played it bad and won it happens but theymay think they did well and continue to mak esam emistake over and over again whichis what im trying to avoid

Just from familiarity thought it was ab dplay but is it bad cos he has 4 outs and I have bet big enough to not allow him to chase for his immediate direct odds ?..I think im right

But what about implied odds and..ohh i talk it thru as i type without understanding but now i reread it I fully get the "as they had to put 240 into a pot that would be 915 (26.2%). Only having a gutshot, they had 4 outs or 8% of equity in their hand on the flop... so they expect to lose 18.2% of the chips they put into this pot!"

I wasnt sure whether to 3bet but decided too and got th perfect flop

I agree about bet sizng tells and if i can move up i nee dto do as you say but as you can se ein these games they chase and chase

Is there a mathematical way of explaining if he was right to chase due to implied odds John?
What I mean is could he say to himself if he can luckily hit a T on turn or river hes liekly to get my stack(probably) so at some depth of stack he could be correct in chasing?


Just on a bad run at the moment i play bad i lose I play quite good i lose ..what im aiming for is to play well all/most of the tiem and if I keep losing then well i be happy as it wont last forever and I msutnt be results orienated
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 07:29 PM
(#4)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Hey
Safe to say villain played that hand badly you played the hand well, that is all you can do.

If we are interested in working out whether villain has implied odds, I would go with on flop villain has to put in 240, if villain thinks that he can win your stack if he hits a T on the turn then it is reasonable to say he is to put in 240 to potentially win pot (435) + your stack (980) + that 240 back. 240/1655 = 14.5%, so he is not getting implied odds to call to hit a ten.

Some caveats, it probably is not reasonable for villain to assume he can always win your stack, eg you may bet this flop with TT and give up. There may be times when villain can get a free river card if you do not bet the turn (not here of course). So as we have said before implied odds difficult to calculate precisely. What we can be more precise about is that villain should not be chasing a gutshot and you played the hand well.
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 02:18 PM
(#5)
AceKingBlows's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 101
BronzeStar
Jam turn, other than that NH. Nothing to be done, this guy's giving his stack to you long term
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 03:03 PM
(#6)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Thanks guys



Can you ever work out your implied odds in game so that you know when it is correct to chase when you do not have direct/immediate odds ?

I seem to be obsessed about Implied odds recently
 

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