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Good call, Bad call, Sick call, or Fold?

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Good call, Bad call, Sick call, or Fold? - Fri Oct 04, 2013, 04:01 PM
(#1)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
This is from a pot-limit tournament. I don't have any stats of the villain but he tried to steal often when in position. Now this early position raise looks like a stronger hand but did he hit or miss the flop? Did he raise with a pocket pair? I've got 2246 chips, 1306 to call. If I lose I'll have around 3BB left. At this point there were 12 players left (8 places paid).



So would you call? Why? I'd say it's a call if we're ahead and a fold if we're behind because we're not chasing a set so near the bubble with almost two thirds of our stack to call. But how can we tell if we're ahead or behind? Would his hand look stronger or weaker if he just checks or bets 300 on the flop? Given the shove on the flop, what hand would you put him on?
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 06:19 PM
(#2)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Depending on reads, if we think he is strong i'd fold pre, if we think he is opening wide i'd put him all-in pre-flop.
 
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Fri Oct 04, 2013, 10:12 PM
(#3)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmotiveKiwi View Post
Depending on reads, if we think he is strong i'd fold pre, if we think he is opening wide i'd put him all-in pre-flop.

Can't quite put the villain all-in pre Kiwi,as this is a pot limit tourney. But we CAN make him commit pre-flop and I'm with you on that...it's either fold pre-flop or raise to play for stacks.

I don't like the flat pre-flop here. Stacks aren't deep enough for set mining to really be profitable and when we flat there are going to be far too many flops that we'll have to fold to any aggression on. Better to either chuck the hand pre and save chips if we're believing the villain here,or force THEM to be the ones to make a tough call if they're raising us wide by potting it pre-flop.
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 07:50 AM
(#4)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Preflop I figured I'd be flipping at best, but I might be way behind too. On the flop, I had some hopes of getting lucky and hitting a set, or just being ahead or behind of the coin flip. With a bigger stack and a better position, I preferred a flat call. If they open from an early position with a third of their stack in the middle, they're not folding their hand preflop, so by shoving preflop I wouldn't learn anything more about their strength. I wanted to see more action as I think more action means more information. So is this a good call or a good fold?
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 12:32 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi raccy!

With 66 and under 10BB in my stack, while I normally have three options (fold, raise, call), I need to rule out one of them, calling. If I call, then I'm trying to setmine and my stack is nowhere near large enough to do so with, as I need to have 15BB in both my stack and the opp's stacks.
This leaves me with raise or fold. If the opp was an extreme nit (most likely not the case), then I could find a fold and wait for a better spot.

However, the overwhelming majority of the time, I'm up against a normal opp in this type of situation. If this were NL, then I'd shove and hope for a race... but with this being pot-limit, I can't shove. However, I can make a max raise and pot commit anyone that wants to be in the hand (then shove the rest in on the flop if I have chips left due to someone else in the pot too)... as close as I can get to shoving.

IMO, this needs to be a max-raise/shove flop or fold and I'm going to go with the max-raise/shove the flop line. I'm short enough that I'm good with taking a race and will do so.

If I go to the flop here, I cannot fold.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 08:51 PM
(#6)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
Can't quite put the villain all-in pre Kiwi,as this is a pot limit tourney. But we CAN make him commit pre-flop and I'm with you on that...it's either fold pre-flop or raise to play for stacks.

I don't like the flat pre-flop here. Stacks aren't deep enough for set mining to really be profitable and when we flat there are going to be far too many flops that we'll have to fold to any aggression on. Better to either chuck the hand pre and save chips if we're believing the villain here,or force THEM to be the ones to make a tough call if they're raising us wide by potting it pre-flop.
Thanks, never played pot limit and assumed we would be able to call his bet then raise the amount of the pot which is around 1.7k putting him in. How does it actually work?
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 09:32 PM
(#7)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmotiveKiwi View Post
Thanks, never played pot limit and assumed we would be able to call his bet then raise the amount of the pot which is around 1.7k putting him in. How does it actually work?

Well if we just call then the pot is 1764,but since we just called if there are no other raises then we're frozen from any further action pre-flop.

When the villain raises 657 here that makes the pot 1107 when it's our turn to act. We can pot it (bet the full value of the pot---1107) which when it comes back to the villain means that they have to either...

1. fold,very unlikely.

2. call for another 450 chips. On a stack of 1306 when they make that call,this would be pretty terrible.

3. raise,which at the depth of money here is going to get us both all-in pre.

So we CAN get these stacks in pre-flop,as you advocated,but not through our actions alone. If we raise the value of the pot here it will take another raise behind ours to get all the money in.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 09:35 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 05, 2013, 09:46 PM
(#8)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
When the villain raises 657 here that makes the pot 1107 when it's our turn to act. We can pot it (bet the full value of the pot---1107) which when it comes back to the villain means that they have to either...
Ok doesn't make entire sense to me. (Thinking from a live game perspective) When we announce raise the first thing we need to do is put in enough chips to call the initial raiser from there we can decide the raise amount to me this would indicate that we should be able to raise what's in the pot at that time (1.7k). But like I said not familiar with pot limit rules.

In any case calling is the worst option imo in this situation and am raising or folding and never calling.
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 09:36 AM
(#9)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Thanks for the comments everyone.

I was actually going to fold if the flop came out anything like AKQ or AJT because I'd still have 7BB left in my stack and I'd be in a good position to make it to the money. I didn't want to be committed to the pot so I flat called. I put the villain on the top 5-6-7% range so I'd be way behind on an AKQ flop.

I think the whole idea of Pot Limit is that no one can put your 9-10BB stack all-in preflop. I also didn't want to play it like I'd play No Limit.

Anyway, on the flop, I figured they would shove with hands like 88, 99, TT, which have me crushed, but also with AK and AQ, against which I was well ahead. Well, no one suggested folding was an option at this point, and I also didn't think it was such a bad call, given the pot size and our stack sizes, so I called. My 66 held up against their AKo.
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 11:26 AM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
FWIW, I was the villain in this hand. I was very surprised to see Raccy looked me up with 66, as I thought hands like that were easy folds pre-flop, given the lack of implied odds. I was expecting to be up against 99+ or random Broadways, some of which he'd fold to the flop shove. I said to myself "Please don't have a jack" as I shoved in the remainder of my stack, so I was quite taken aback when 66 was flipped over.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EmotiveKiwi View Post
When we announce raise the first thing we need to do is put in enough chips to call the initial raiser from there we can decide the raise amount to me this would indicate that we should be able to raise what's in the pot at that time (1.7k). But like I said not familiar with pot limit rules.
You're correct. Raccy can raise 1764 on top of my open, making a full pot-sized 3-bet to 2421, which isn't quite all of his stack, but more than enough to put me all in. I was obviously committed to stacking off, whether it was all in pre, or on the flop. My plan was quite simple: "I need to gain chips urgently. I have AK UTG. Get it in pre if possible, jam 100% of flops if I'm just called".

Quote:
Originally Posted by raccy View Post
I put the villain on the top 5-6-7% range so I'd be way behind on an AKQ flop.
You're correct in your ranging. But you're actually way behind even on a J74. With deeper stacks I'd be a bit looser, but in this particular spot, I think I'm only playing 99+, AJ+. Against that range, 66 is toast, both pre-flop and post-flop.

Board:
--- Equity -----   Win ----    Tie
UTG    64.57%  64.57%   0.00% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
UTG+1  35.43%  35.43%   0.00% { 6s6c }

As it happens, the stack to pot ratio is so small that I can't price you out of making a "correct" call, even though you're crushed by my range as a whole. My flop shove means you need 1306/4376 = 29.8% equity to make a break-even call. You have 35.43% equity against my range, which sounds terrible, but it's chipEV+ to make the call because of the tiny SPR. Whether it's the right play on an ICM standpoint I'm really not sure, but it seems a very high risk move to be risking almost all your stack when you're going to get crippled about 65% of the time, when folding pre almost guarantees you'll make the money.

I think you made it to HU or even won the event, so I'm glad you put the chips to good use!

Next time, I'll make sure I have top set, or I'll just avoid pot limit altogether. That structure does my head in!


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 11:28 AM..
 
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Mon Oct 07, 2013, 09:10 AM
(#11)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
You're correct in your ranging. But you're actually way behind even on a J74. With deeper stacks I'd be a bit looser, but in this particular spot, I think I'm only playing 99+, AJ+. Against that range, 66 is toast, both pre-flop and post-flop.

Board:
--- Equity -----   Win ----    Tie
UTG    64.57%  64.57%   0.00% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }
UTG+1  35.43%  35.43%   0.00% { 6s6c }
I actually didn't think you'd be opening with AJ and I wasn't worried about the J on the flop either. Also, the shove on the flop meant that I could exclude the strongest hands from that range. I didn't think you'd shove with AA or JJ because with those hands you actually want my chips in the middle. So I assumed my equity was higher than 35%, probably 40-50%. When I decided to call, I was hoping to see AK or AQ against which I was good.

A min bet would've been slightly scarier on that flop, but if checked, I was never betting or shoving there because there wasn't really any fold equity there.
 
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Mon Oct 07, 2013, 11:12 AM
(#12)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
AJo might not be in my range, to be fair, but that still leaves me with about 58% equity on the flop.

I understand what you mean, but I'm jamming that flop whether I have AA, JJ or AQ. We are both pot-committed (SPR of less than 1 means it's a mistake to fold a made hand or 2 overcards). You might fold underpairs and hands like KQ, but I could jam with top set and expect you to call with TT/99. There's no bet size other than a shove that really makes sense. You're either stacking off, or you're not. I mean, if I minbet and you called, you're even more committed to getting the rest in on the turn, because of the ridculous pot odds, even if it comes something terrible for your hand like the .

I would also jam the nuts rather than minbet the flop precisely because a minbet screams "Please pay me off". I know you're good enough to recognise tells like that.
It's kind of like when you see someone minraise from a 6bb stack in a NLH tournament. It's KK+ almost always. Open jamming can look weaker, so is more likely to get called by worse. Maybe I could have tried levelling you, by minbetting in order to try and represent aces to try and get you to fold, but I'd already decided to get my money in before I even raised pre. I don't think I've ever made a post-oak bluff in my life (fancy play syndrome ahoy!), and it didn't occur to me to try one this time.

Ultimately, this hand is kind of a cooler, post-flop at least. It's one of those weird situations you get with low SPRs, where shoving is +EV for me and calling is +EV for you. The pot lays too good of a price for anyone to make a hero fold at that stage.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Mon Oct 07, 2013 at 11:16 AM..
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 07:23 PM
(#13)
raccy's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 130
ArtySmokes,

Your response made me think of something that I see a lot but I've never really understood. When both of the two runners are more or less pot-committed but they also have over 3BB left in their stacks, what's the point of betting unless you're 100% certain that you can win the showdown?

It might be even more common for the shove on the flop to come from a big stack when the small stack has less than 1BB (or even 1 chip) to call even if they had nothing more but a 7-high. It's basically free chips for the short stack - something that I just don't get.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 08:35 PM
(#14)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
That's a good question, and not one I can really answer very well, especially at this time of night.

I started typing a long reply and ended up rambling and going off topic, so I deleted it and will post something more sensible tomorrow.


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