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Did I make the correct decision?

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Did I make the correct decision? - Sun Oct 06, 2013, 03:14 PM
(#1)
BUTTCHIN0707's Avatar
Since: May 2012
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 04:47 PM
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EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Do you have any reads/stats on the villains? Sometimes the fold decision is correct sometimes it's not.
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 04:57 PM
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BUTTCHIN0707's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmotiveKiwi View Post
Do you have any reads/stats on the villains? Sometimes the fold decision is correct sometimes it's not.
No I didn't and that is why I folded, there are tons of donks early on....

that's my question really, because its an easy opportunity to chip up against such a wide range of hands, should I actually be making a call there,

However I didn't have any reads on the players so it's a pretty easy fold
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 08:47 PM
(#4)
Ormosity's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 82
Low level buy-in have way to many Donks early on.

I wouldn't be risking my tournament unless i had a really good read but even then it's a Fold for me 90% of the time .
 
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Sun Oct 06, 2013, 10:36 PM
(#5)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
its turbo time and AQsooooted looks pretty doesnt it?

but suitedness only adds 3% to your chance sof winning and thats against 1 opponent and i verymuch doubt first raiser is raisng to then fold

Against 2 completely random hands youve only got 48% equity and theyhave better than random i strong ly suspect (just ran some calulations and if first guy raised and called allin 50% of tiem and other guty moved allin 50% of time ...I cant hand read/range yet so i know these unlikely their equity doesnt drop off that much

disiplined laydown i think..although if it were against 2 manaics could definitely see us taking a gamble especially a s its a turbo and w eonly have 12bb

someone coudl easily have had Ak or pairs and its too early to flip versus probably 2 players

my record in turbos is played 18 cashes 0 so I very well coudl be wrong
 
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Mon Oct 07, 2013, 11:09 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Don't be results oriented! Rarely will it be wrong to fold to a pre-flop 3-bet shove that has you covered with AQs. Since its rarely wrong, you should require very confident reads to not fold.

Good decisions.
 
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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 11:12 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

No reads... it's level 4 of the tournament so the only really valid reason to have no reads is that you just got moved to this table or the villain just got moved here.

I am reluctant to fold here tbh. It's the tournament situation that makes me say that. We have a 12 big blind stack in a turbo structure. The opener has 19bb's and shover 14. I think it's fairly close tbh. If one or both of the players in front were tight, I'd begrudgingly fold. If they were both loose, I'd snap it in here without hesitation.

It seems like everyone is quick to fold here. I'm in full agreement that normally AQs vs. an EP raise and 3b jam is nothing to write home about. But this isn't exactly a normal situation. We have a 12bb stack in a turbo structure, in a micro-buy in where ranges may be wider than normal for the actions. If folding is your default line here you are going to blind out of a lot of tournaments... at least try to avoid turbo structures then.


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Tue Oct 08, 2013, 10:53 PM
(#8)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,424
so if it not a turbo its still a call right?...guess the reads are most important here
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 04:53 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post
so if it not a turbo its still a call right?...guess the reads are most important here

In a standard structure like the .25 and $1 45's I'd be much more inclined to fold. In a turbo structure at these low levels,I'm with Dave,I would need to have solid reads and reasons to fold here,not to call. Standard structure you have more time to pick and choose your spots. If I had the shover marked as loose and/or spewy and the open raiser as the same,OR as someone who is a likely candidate to fold to two shoves behind them,then my chips are very likely going in the middle.

In a Turbo calling would be my baseline,as we're already on a 12BB stack and tripling up here gives us a much better chance of cashing and,if we're capable of stealing and recognizing good gamble spots with that stack,a real chance to get the kind of chips we need to go for a win here.

Fold and the honest truth is that we may not see a better spot for another rotation or so and by that time we'll be blinded and anted down enough that all a double up would do is get us back to the amount of chips we have now,and facing bigger blinds and antes.

Really I would need to see tight,bordering on NIT,ranges on both players here to lay down the AQs.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 05:18 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolo834 View Post

Against 2 completely random hands youve only got 48% equity and theyhave better than random i strong ly suspect (just ran some calulations and if first guy raised and called allin 50% of tiem and other guty moved allin 50% of time ...I cant hand read/range yet so i know these unlikely their equity doesnt drop off that much

If we call here and Player 3 does come along then we're playing for 3885 chips (our 1245 x 3,plus the 150 chips from the 2 blind,assuming that they fold...). So we'll have 32.05% pot equity.

If we call and everyone else,including Player 3,folds then we're playing for 2640 chips and our pot equity is 47.16%.

Say we range the two opps as tight as 15% for Player 3 and 10% for Player 5...we'll have a hand equity of 36.52%,solidly +EV for us to call. Tournament EV in a Turbo is with us as well to my mind,on a 12BB stack it's gamble it up and try to triple our stack time,right here,right now.

Even ranging them BOTH back to 10% we are in a narrower spot but still on the + side EV wise at 33.91%. Put Player 5 all the way back to NIT range at 5% (leaving Player 3 at 10%) and we're behind at 28.97% but hardly crushed.

If Player 3 folds and leaves their 300 chips as dead money in the pot and we're HU with Player 5 then we're roughly 5 points ahead EV wise if they're on a 10% range and roughly 5 points to the bad if they're at 5%.

For me,in a Turbo,if I have to start ranging people as tight as 5% to be behind EV-wise then it's pretty much all systems go to get my chips in,because players that Nitty in a Turbo are few and far between.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:05 PM
(#11)
BUTTCHIN0707's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 212
ChromeStar
great comments guys! Very interesting
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:59 PM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
On the turbo structure, I'd agree if OP's stack is in the bottom third or so. When a double up will put me in or near the top 1/3, I'd be patient in late position w/o reads.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 11:02 PM
(#13)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
snap call cross your fingrs
 

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