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25nl Zoom: Check/calling OTR

25nl Zoom: Check/calling OTR - Tue Oct 08, 2013, 06:12 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats - VPIP: 54, PFR: 31, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 13

Just a quick check on my line here. I think bet/bet/bet is a little bit optimistic for top pair ok kicker.

I think he'll have a lot of missed draws when the board pairs, so if we want to get value, we should be check/calling to let our hand be a bluff catcher.

Do you think this extracts more value than b/b/b?

What range do you assign the villain when he flats pre and calls our bets?

Tue Oct 08, 2013, 06:40 AM
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
not 86 for sure , I think you can't get value with river bet, but you can catch his missed draws
Tue Oct 08, 2013, 10:15 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,

Very limited read with only 13 hands, but thus far he's been laggy. A note for those looking at the AF and saying it doesn't look aggressive post flop... I wouldn't make that determination on a 7 hand sample (he's voluntarily played 7/13 hands so far) where he's likely been involved with wide ranges and thus flopping weaker than average holdings.

Ok, so yeah, I like this line when there are a lot of draws and most of them miss vs. a player like this. Against a tighter player there's really only a flush draw bricking here, but against this villain I expect he's chasing gut shots on the turn as well, so the only combo of gutters that get there is 67... 68/78/JT/QT/QJ all miss. So his range here is probably mostly weaker hands... Kx, 9x, busted spades, and busted gutters that either did or did not pair the 8. Since a laggy player may well bet Kx themselves when checked to, we still get value from his garbage like K3s check/calling, but also give him a chance to bluff.

The key questions to ask in a spot like this are:

-Will they bluff a busted draw, or just give up?
-Will they "value bet" worse made hands, or just check and show them down?

Since this guy is probably a candidate to do some of both, c/c is a good way to exploit it. If he were a negative on both, we should bet again.

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