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25NL - River Bluff catch vs triple barells?

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25NL - River Bluff catch vs triple barells? - Wed Oct 09, 2013, 06:57 AM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hello PSO-ers,

This is a ZOOM hand where a LAG playing 40/31(68 Hands) min opens the BTN and we defend our SB with 88 and a Tight opponent 16/13 (168 Hands) 4% 3bet, 0% squeeze in BB. So I'm not really worried about them behind us and they fold as I expected.

Villains average steal is 71% over 17 hands and their fold to 3bet is 57% in 7 attempts but 7.7 4bet range in 6 hands.
Flop Agg: 4.0(11) - Turn Agg: 5.0(8) - River Agg: 1.0(5)


With their 67% cbet, I decide to x/c flop and maybe some turns that they might 2barell on. The turn I think is a good card for them to bet with a hand like 97, 98, KQ, AQ, AK, etc. where they pick up some equity and added fold equity against my Tx or PPs. But now they put out a 65% PSB OTR and I have a decision to make. Obviously against their made hands our hand is no good, but the question is would they triple barrel bluff this river card?

I think some made hands could check back if not the turn for pot control but the river with SD value and his bet sizing does not look like thin value to me but either an outright bluff or a strong Jx+ hand.

From the way I played my hand by x/c two streets it might be reasonable to assume that they are trying to get us to fold a Tx, 99/88/77? Looking at the river agg stat does not help us in that direction. Yet sample size is insignificant.

What would you do OTR? and would you have played the hand any differently OTF & OTT?

Give me thoughts....

 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 08:05 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I think it's more of a 3-bet preflop, since we crush his range and I see no reason to slowplay it pre.
Flop is standard, but on the turn a call could put us on a tough spot on almost any river.
I feel that as played, calling all the way could be justified and +EV vs some aggro opponents, but I would prefer the low variance play and just fold turn.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 10:23 AM
(#3)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
I find kind of suspicious that someone who opens BTN 2 x, would cbet that big flop as well on turn and river as bluff. I'm probably giving up turn, for sure river. Turn cbet% would be interesting. Also seems like his river aggression drops in comparison with flop and turn, seems like the kind of player to give up river?

Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 10:26 AM..
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 10:24 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Flop call is super standard.

I'm conflicted OTT.

Good regs will be barreling an overcard OTT, so I feel folding the turn is a bit weak given he opened OTB.

However, calling the turn to fold a brick river seems quite exploitable.

Given this, I think we should be making our decision OTT.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 12:00 PM
(#5)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Personally I think it was played very nitty

If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack. I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way. Numbers are not the only aspect of the game, perception also is.

So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00, if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river

As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination, so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop? Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

Just my 2 cents
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:13 PM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hiya trap
Thanks for dropping by...


my in-line comments below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Personally I think it was played very nitty you mean passively?

If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack.
It's zoom; and I auto top up
I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way.
A BTN min open is not necessarily a beginner; its a way to be able to open more pots from that position without risking too much and having to fold 3bbs when they get 3bet with their junk. I think with 88 is a good hand to call because it's not a value hand (which means I don't plan to go all in with it if we get 4bt) and at the same time too strong to fold.
Numbers are not the only aspect of the game, perception also is.

So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00 , if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river So we are somehow turning our hand into a bluff here because I'm not sure I see better hands folding or worse hands calling

As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination 99+ are actually 36 combos not 6, so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop?what worse hands call? Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

Just my 2 cents

Last edited by geoVARTA; Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:21 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:16 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I think the river card is a bad card to bluff but i was just wondering seen as Sandtrap said raise the flop because we can be ahead here alot i think but if we have TPTK on the flop should we ever raise for value there or just call down im forever calling down with TPTK when im OOP and it feels so weak and it just lets them outdraw you.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:41 PM
(#8)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I think the river card is a bad card to bluff but i was just wondering seen as Sandtrap said raise the flop because we can be ahead here alot i think but if we have TPTK on the flop should we ever raise for value there or just call down im forever calling down with TPTK when im OOP and it feels so weak and it just lets them outdraw you.
I think with TPTK there is less chance to get outdrawn because we would have an Ace to go with our TP
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:55 PM
(#9)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hiya trap
Thanks for dropping by...


my in-line comments below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Personally I think it was played very nitty you mean passively? Sorry, for better words , yes

If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack. It's zoom; and I auto top up I know, it's the perception you give
I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way. A BTN min open is not necessarily a beginner; its a way to be able to open more pots from that position without risking too much and having to fold 3bbs when they get 3bet with their junk. I think with 88 is a good hand to call because it's not a value hand (which means I don't plan to go all in with it if we get 4bt) and at the same time too strong to fold. Wasn't talking about the button, I was placing myself in his shoes and analyzing your call

So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00, if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river. So we are somehow turning our hand into a bluff here because I'm not sure I see better hands folding or worse hands calling. Not necessarily, because the way you played it, you kind of told the Button, "I don't have much, so I'm just calling to see another card", so he could be bluffing you with 27o

As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination, 99+ are actually 36 combos not 6, SORRY you're right on that, I should of said combination type so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop? what worse hands call? AK, AQ or any 2 cards to scare you and make you fold Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

Just my 2 cents
Put yourself in his shoes
- How do you perceive the SB just calling your min raise? he's got nothing and just wants to see the flop
- SB checks the flop? He still has nothing
- SB calls my min bet? Still wants to see another card
- SB checks turn? Still has nothing
- SB calls my min bet again? He wants to see another card, If he had anything he would raise. All I got to do, is make a big bet on the river and I'm sure he'll fold

Personally, I think you had good cards to re-raise and re-evaluate your next move. Also, if I was in profit in my session, no question, I'm re-raising the pre flop, the post flop and maybe the turn

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 01:57 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:59 PM
(#10)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
I fold the turn. You don't consider 3bet pre flop? Some players like frosty say they don't have a calling range on the SB anymore.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 02:03 PM
(#11)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
I don't get what min bet are we talking about on the flop? 1 into a 1.25 seems like a pretty big cbet. Could be just a standard cbet for him, could be a tell.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 02:06 PM
(#12)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
I think with TPTK there is less chance to get outdrawn because we would have an Ace to go with our TP
So its fine to call 3 barrels with TPTK when we have are sure were ahead of course ive not called 3 barrels and lost yet with TPTK that is.

So if we ever raise TPTK why would we do it? To try and make an aggro player think were bluffing on very dry flops that if raised are always gonna be a bluff from a good players view like on a flop of A99 it would be pretty silly to raise a lag there with 98 unless you think he will put you on a bluff and just put you in i seen this play alot at some higher stakes vids i watched. But they are raising TPTK in alot of other spots as well with no reason as to why there doing it.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 02:19 PM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
I don't get what min bet are we talking about on the flop? 1 into a 1.25 seems like a pretty big cbet. Could be just a standard cbet for him, could be a tell.
By min bet, for me, is $0.50 pre flop and $1 post flop at 25NL
If I have a stack of $30, what's a .50 or $1 call.... peanuts
But if you bet 3x or even 3.5x, than it looks big.

If only I could remember the tittle of a book which really helped me. It said something like, "If you think you have good cards, you bet or you fold, you DON'T CALL"

That's what I do, I bet or re-raise or fold and then re-evaluate if I continue or I fold. (I do sometimes call....lol, but lots depends on my notes)
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 04:50 PM
(#14)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
There are no min bets in this hand. I think you are overplaying your 88 hand and maybe that book you read is out of date. You can't just bet or fold. There are hands that have showdown value that you must only call.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 05:06 PM
(#15)
EmotiveKiwi's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Flop Agg: 4.0(11) - Turn Agg: 5.0(8) - River Agg: 1.0(5)
Even though it's a small sample his stats here suggests that he likes to continue his aggression on the flop and turn and then give up on the river.

Based on these alone I don't mind calling the flop and the turn but am folding to his river bet and waiting for a better spot.

Personally I would have 3-bet pre-flop but as played I prefer folding the river.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 07:13 PM
(#16)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hello PSO-ers,

Villains average steal is 71% over 17 hands and their fold to 3bet is 57% in 7 attempts but 7.7 4bet range in 6 hands.
Flop Agg: 4.0(11) - Turn Agg: 5.0(8) - River Agg: 1.0(5)

It seems like the following lines seem to do quite well versus villains on the button with these sorts of stats?

● 3-bet, c-bet
● call, donk bet
● call, check-raise
● + ?


And then there's slowplaying big hands versus aggro players who we think likely have worse.

But I guess bluff-catching's different - like by bluff-catching are we talking more about hands that can pretty much only beat bluffs if we call? Which can be pretty lucrative when we're right, but so costly when we're wrong - both with calling when we're ahead/behind, and folding when we're behind/ahead.


I guess all the stuff like 3-betting, etc, are effective low variance ways to play villains with these profiles. And MAYBE bluff-catching can be too, IF we're sure enough of our reads?

Don't think I've ever personally check-called 3 streets with a pocket pair with 2 overs on the board - there was that one hand where I check-called 3 streets with AJ TP versus a known lag who had like 35s or something. And there have been a handful of times I've check-called 3 streets with AK TPTK - once when I called to share the pot (submitted that hand to HA which Geo answered ), once in that multiway pot (that Sandtrap gave me feedback on the other day ), and once during that 72s promo - but those 3 times, it felt like the villain's lines were inconsistent? And there were probably better ways I could have played the hand in the first place to avoid winding up in such confusing spots and stuff.

But Tommy Gun had a hand where he check-called a turn and river bet with A-high in his Time Vault thread:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...299#post418299


Just some random thoughts on the subject of bluff-catching that came to mind I guess ... not sure where I'm going with things here

Did you call Geo? What did the villain have?
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 01:37 AM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

It's a great discussion here! I'll add my thoughts on this spot.

First preflop... Against a loose-aggressive opener who steals crazy wide and is aggressive post flop, I absolutely think we should have both a calling and 3-betting range to defend from the blinds with here.

88 is certainly way too strong to fold to this player's button open, so that's out of the question. Against this villain, small and middle pairs fall into my 3-betting defending range... I really don't like flat calling preflop here.

Think about how this hand is going to play out post flop if we call pre. The villain is going to bet flop and turn a lot if we check to him based on the read we have. If we don't flop an 8, we're going to wind up with a hand strength that is often 2nd or 3rd pair, which is very difficult to play against an aggressive player who has a wide range and position. 3-betting makes our life much easier and makes this spot easier to play and punishes him for being so out of line both in general and specifically on his button opens.

Calling to set mine doesn't have too much value, although if we do this and hit a set we should check-call flop and turn with it... his range is so wide he's simply not going to flop much too often, certainly not stack action strength. So we are left with exploiting his tendency to continue his aggression on the flop and turn facing weakness (without the burden of having only 2nd or 3rd pair).

The guy steals on the button 71% and folds to 3b's only 57%, granted these numbers are over small samples and the fold to 3b not positionally specific, but we can use them to estimate a visual range for him continuing vs. our 3b. 71% x 43% (non-folds to 3B) = 30.5% continuing range. And the limited info says 7.7% 4-bet range. Again the action %'s you have to take with a big grain of salt on these samples, but it doesn't matter, the visual still presents a nice look in a general sense so we can get a feel for what's happening when our 3B gets called. If we take a 30.5% range and remove the top 7.7%, it looks something like this: 22-66,A2s-A9s,K4s+,Q9s+,JTs,A2o-ATo,K8o+,QJo

When he takes a flop with this range, he is going to flop weakly or miss completely an awful lot, allowing us to take it down with a c-bet, and depending on board texture, we can barrel for value in some spots when he calls the flop as well.

If he 4-bets me, meh, it's ok to give it up. He's opening so crazy wide that we will get 4-bet very rarely and usually be up against a range that 88 doesn't play well against anyway.

So anyway, post flop after we just call pre, I think is fine. Certainly check/calling this flop is standard, we are still ahead quite often here and he will bet worse for us, if we bet or raise though we will probably only get action when beat and simply fold out all his air and bluffs. On the turn check/calling is fine again given his turn aggression stats, but this could also be an interesting spot to bet out. The check/call, bet line tends to confuse players as they don't see it much. I doubt he will fold a ten, but he was going to bet that if checked to again anyway. He may put us on a draw though and call with worse pairs. Leading also denies him a free card should he decide to take one with a hand like A6, 75, or Q8. And it helps block us from being bluffed.

As played, I would definitely fold to this river bet. The sizing looks like he's trying to get value and as others have noted, the early line on his stats indicate he's only got 2 barrels in the chamber without the goods.


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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 01:39 AM
(#18)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Hello PSO-ers,

but the question is would they triple barrel bluff this river card?
I think if you have such question you had to fold . or if it costs 5$ to make a note on him, than call
but his river agrresion is to low to assume that his bluffing there.
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 02:20 AM
(#19)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
And it helps block us from being bluffed.
I actually think it opens us up to getting bluffed. I don't think we are leading with monsters otr, and if it looks like we are going for a blocking bet, a good aggressive player can raise us off it.
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 03:20 AM
(#20)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Interesting thoughts here guys! Dave, thanks for the hand evaluation!
It never occurred to me that 3betting 88 against this player might be a profitable line. With TT I would have 3bet for value and would plan to 5bet shove had they come over the top clearly because of their 4bet bluff tendency. 66-22 would be in my 3bet bluff range here too since set mining against a wide range is like never profitable.

I guess flop/turn lines are pretty standard like Dave points out but I did fold you guys after I checked his river aggression, though I had a gut feeling he had a KQ/98/97 type of hand; something that couldn't check back the river for SD.

Perhaps I should've called and said what a genius I am .. or what a donk; why did I call! right?! :p
 

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