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EV of jamming the river vs calling it

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EV of jamming the river vs calling it - Wed Oct 09, 2013, 08:07 AM
(#1)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Hey guys. This problem I've got is nagging me a bit.
  • I have 45% equity vs villain range on the river.
  • Pot is 150bb.
  • Have to call 34bb to see the showdown.
  • I have 73bb left in my stack.

Okay, so there is the point where it gets a bit confusing. If I jam I get higher EV than calling. How is that possible? Could you look at these calcs and see where the mistake is?

EV of calling : (0.45*150)-(0.55*34)=48.8
EV of jamming : (0.45*(150+73))-(0.55*73)=60.2


Thanks in advance
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:00 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Quote:
Originally Posted by morduk666 View Post
EV of calling : (0.45*150)-(0.55*34)=48.8
EV of jamming : (0.45*(150+73))-(0.55*73)=60.2
I suck at math but from a first sight I think this is more correct:

EV of calling : (0.45*(150+34))-(0.55*34)=64.1
EV of jamming : (0.45*(150+73))-(0.55*73)=60.2
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:23 AM
(#3)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by GamblingProp View Post
I suck at math but from a first sight I think this is more correct:

EV of calling : (0.45*(150+34))-(0.55*34)=64.1
EV of jamming : (0.45*(150+73))-(0.55*73)=60.2
Hey, GamblingProp. The pot 150 was after villain put 34bb in it, so the first one is correct i think.
However about the second one:
Problem is I added my call to the profit it was (0.45*(150+73)) it should be
(0.45*(150+39)), since I have to call 34 to win 150 pot, and after that I only got 39bb left. If i jam it I only win additional 39 not 73bb. The correct equation of jamming should look like this i hope:

EV of jamming : (0.45*(150+39))-(0.55*73)=44.9

Maybe I shouldn't account dead money in the pot when calculating EV of valuebet on the river. Only the bet itself wich makes it (0.45*39)-(0.55*39)=-EV.

Last edited by morduk666; Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 09:25 AM..
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:35 AM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
It's very easy to make little mistakes when doing equations like this. I often make them myself and then have to edit my post when someone spots it, but I believe your first calculation is entirely correct.

EDIT: And you've spotted the error while I was typing this.

In layman's terms, the equation looks like this:
EV of calling = (How much we win * how often we win) - (How much we lose * how often we lose)
EV of calling = (size of current pot * our equity) - (cost of calling * villain's equity)

EV of calling = (0.45*150)-(0.55*34)=48.8bb of profit.

The second one (EV of shoving) is a little more complicated. I'm assuming that your shove is always called by the villain, who has you covered. In that case, your shove constitues a raise of 39bb over the 34bb it costs to call.
So in that case, when you win, you're expecting to gain the 150bb already in the pot, plus another 39bb, not another 73bb. The final potential profit is 150+39 = 189, not 150+73=223.
If you lose, then your shove costs 73bb (or the call of 34bb plus the 39bb raise).

So the EV of jamming is (0.45 * (150 + 39)) - (0.55 * 73)
EV of jamming = (0.45 * 189) - (0.55 * 73) = 85.05 - 40.15 = 44.9bb of profit

In short, just calling will net you 48.8bb profit on average, while jamming is slightly worse at 44.9bb.


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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 11:38 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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There is one factor that is left out here that could EASILY make jamming be a higher +EV. Does the opp have chips behind? If so, how many? How likely are they to fold to a jam or ours?

If there are chips behind and the opp would fold a % of the time, this could make jamming a HUGE +EV play.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 12:33 PM
(#6)
morduk666's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 84
Hey Arty, thanks for clearing this out, now i can sleep well
John, villain had some chips behind him but i would be empty after my shove, anyways i see your point.
 
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Wed Oct 09, 2013, 01:33 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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Hi morduk!

The reason for it is that a given % of the time, we'll win what's in the pot without a fight (always a huge +EV play). Then when we win/lose, will happen less often due to the folds, which lowers the negative part for when we lose chips.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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