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utilizing stats-comparing one with the other

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utilizing stats-comparing one with the other - Wed Oct 09, 2013, 09:11 PM
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MANILA RE's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 18
Have been on a never ending quest to find an idiots guide to stat use. Harrington has a great way of explaining how one stat related to another gives you an idea of opponents tendencies. Have come to the conclusion that I am asking the wrong question because everyone just explains what each stat is for or says that depending on the situation... etc etc.Let's use the most basic vpip/pfr
High VPIP against a low PFR let's us assume the player limps or likes to see flops so we can quite comfortably call or raise them and expect to be holding better hands or we'll be able to get a fold out of them.Apply this to the flop high CBETwith a low TURN BET means this and that and the other. This is what I am looking for ,I do remember reading a forum post on another site which addressed the basics and to me this was all I needed ,but alas after years of Zelda like adventureing ,scouring the net and trolling forums like this one the holy grail of stats as I see it still alludes me.If you don't have the whole stat list down throw a few "I look at the pop up and if villain has high fold to Turn Cbet compared to Flop Cbet I know or think he plays this way" posts and maybe we can compile the best uses and constuct a basic guide.
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 08:55 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
I think this is best explained with a couple of examples. One came up in Gareth's training last night actually.

A villain limped UTG, and his stats for VPIP/PFR were something like 67/12. That means he plays 67% of hands in total, and enters the pot with a raise 12% of the time. In the hand Gareth played, the villain limped, so what does this tell you about his range?
Well, we can be fairly sure he has a hand in the top 67% (which is a ludicrously wide range), but since he didn't raise, it's unlikely to be in the top 12%, because his PFR% was 12%.
We can therefore assign him a range of "average hands", fitting somewhere between the top 12% and 67%. He won't show up with KQs or 88, because he would raise those. He's more likely to have something with "kicker trouble". Something like Q8, or T8s, or A3o - hands that aren't in the 12% of hands that he'd raise with, but are well inside the 67% of all hands that he'd play.

The c-bet and turn bet stats are a bit different, but these can also be looked in relation to the VPIP/PFR numbers.
For example, let's say we know two players that both c-bet 100% of the time, but one of these guys plays 9/8 and the other plays 35/20. The nit that plays 9/8 only opens 8% of hands to start with. That's a very strong range, heavy in big pairs and big aces. So it's really no surprise that he c-bets often. After all, if he's starting with big aces and big pairs, then when he sees the flop, he's often going to have TPTK, an overpair or a set.
Now look at the LAG that raises 20% of hands pre-flop. He's raising stuff like 33, AT, and KTs. When he c-bets the flop nearly always, his range for doing so is weaker, because he won't have overpairs, TPTK and sets very often. We'd therefore give his c-bets much less credit; he has more bluffs in his range than the nit.
This can be carried forward to the turn. If the nit c-bet the flop with his big hand, then he's usually c-betting the turn. If he doesn't c-bet the turn, then you can pretty much narrow his range to the few hands in his range that whiffed the flop, such as AK/AQ. e.g. if the nit c-bets J72, his range is still his pre-flop range of 88+/AQ+ or something like that. If he checks the turn, we can usually eliminate JJ+, as overpairs and sets would likely keep betting. His checking range is specifically AK/AQ and TT-88.
A LAG is harder to put on a range, because he starts with a wider range. The only jacks in the nit's range are pocket jacks, but the LAG plays JJ, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9s etc. So if he keeps betting, there's a pretty good chance he has a jack. But also remember that this guy is also playing hands like A3, KT, Q8 etc. He might be barrelling with bottom pair, or even ace high!

One way you can utilize/exploit the flop/turn c-bet stats is to decide whether floating in position might be profitable. e.g. If someone c-bets the flop to a high frequency, but doesn't c-bet the turn very often, then he's a good candidate to float. After all, if he doesn't barrel very often, it's likely to be because he doesn't bluff once his c-bet is called. He'll only keep firing on the turn if he has a real hand, or it improved on the turn. Someone that barrels more often is a tougher customer. Although he's more likely to be bluffing if his flop and turn c-bets are very frequent (especially if he's loose overall) he's not going to be showing any weakness that you can attack. It will also be a more expensive play for you to make if you have to raise the turn, rather than just bet it, like you would if the one-and-done guy checked.

Just about every stat on your HUD can be used as an indication of the ways someone can be exploited. And, to be frank, if you have a stat on your HUD that you don't understand, then it's kind of pointless to have it displayed. That's why you should run a very basic HUD when you start. If there's a stat you don't really know how to use, by all means ask.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 08:59 AM..
 
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Thankyou for your kind words yep yep I know I know - Thu Oct 10, 2013, 09:25 PM
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MANILA RE's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 18
ARTY that was beautiful this is what I am looking for , you see I have this problem where for example someone is giving me directions to a restaurant , house or whatever, I am knodding my head "yeah, oh there okay yep I know where it is" meanwhile the looney tunes theme is playing in my head Hence I can't follow direction I need to find my own way there or figure out my own way of doing things and then they "stick" . Statistics guide would be priceless but if not I'll get my lazy brain pumping and try to expand on your examples,thanks for the input.
 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 07:44 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
One of the many things on my "blogs to write" list is an article on how to set up and utilize a HUD. Unfortunately for you, I have more pressing concerns right now, so you'll have to wait for it, but it will get posted eventually. There have been a few live training sessions on HUD use, so you could try searching the archive. http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/library?search=HUD

Other than that, I'm quite happy to answer quick questions about particular stats, as I said.


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