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Rule of 2 and 4 and pot odds

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Rule of 2 and 4 and pot odds - Thu Oct 10, 2013, 12:27 AM
(#1)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
Hi

I find the rule of 2 and 4 very helpful for calculating my chances of making my hand but when I calculate pot odds they are in the following format 5/1 etc but the rule of 2 and 4 produces a %
Therefore I am not sure where I am
Is there an easy way to convert odds to % or % to odds and if not how do others cope with this.
Eg

9 outs on flop so 36% chance of making hand by river using rule of 2 and 4
Odds to call 5/1
I need them both to be in % or both to be in odds to know where I am

Any help appreciated

Thanks

Mike
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 01:37 AM
(#2)
HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,902
Hi Guy,

The Pot Odds and Expected Value lesson in the Cash Game course is an excellent guide to determine your odds in relation to the rule of 2 and 4.
Hope this helps.

Joss


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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 09:39 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
To turn an odds ratio into a fraction, which is easy to turn into a percentage, the calculation goes like this:

Odds
X:Y

Fraction
Y/(X+Y)

So if your odds are 4:1, the fraction is 1/(4+1) = 1/5, which as a percentage is 20%

If odds are 3:2, the fraction is 2/5 = 40%

To travel in the opposite direction, converting from percentages to odds, you put the % on one side of the ratio and (100-%) on the other, and then simplify.
e.g. 20% shown as an odds ratio is (100-20):20 = 80:20 = 8:2 = 4:1

Some other commons ones that you can commit to memory:

1:1 = 50%
3:2 = 40%
2:1 = 33.3%
3:1 = 25%
4:1 = 20%
5:1 = 16.7%


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 09:46 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 11:19 AM
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Hello OrdinaryGuy1,

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Thanks - Fri Oct 11, 2013, 07:35 AM
(#5)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
Hi

Thank you both for those replies. I can work it out now

Much appreciated

Mike
 
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Wed Oct 16, 2013, 05:34 AM
(#6)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokyPokyToo View Post
Hi Guy,

The Pot Odds and Expected Value lesson in the Cash Game course is an excellent guide to determine your odds in relation to the rule of 2 and 4.
Hope this helps.

Joss

I have read this over and over and it is just confusing me. In the first example it looks a Flushdraw (9 outs) with a pot of $5, to call you need to pay $1 giving you pot odds off 5:1. That I get but where I’m getting confused is the next bit. If I go with the 2 and 4 rule I make it 18% chance of me hitting the flush on the next card so I make that as if I played the same hand 5 times I will hit once. Meaning I will only break even. But in the example it said out of 4 plays you will hit once I would have thought you would need to have a 25% chance of hitting your hand to hit it once out of 4 plays?

Maybe my maths is failing me or I have got myself confused. Pot odds v hand potential is want I’m trying to get in my head at the mo and my head is spinning. If someone could clear this up for me I would be very happy. I have decided to stop playing till I am confident with this.

Michael

Last edited by Michae2005; Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 05:45 AM..
 
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Wed Oct 16, 2013, 08:49 AM
(#7)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Hi Michael. There used to be a typo on one of the 'odds and outs' pages that confused everyone, but I think that got fixed. I can't immediately spot a mistake on the page you linked to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michae2005 View Post
But in the example it said out of 4 plays you will hit once I would have thought you would need to have a 25% chance of hitting your hand to hit it once out of 4 plays?
Maybe I'm looking at the wrong example, but I don't see where it says "out of 4 plays". When discussing the nut flush draw, it says "According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw."

What that means is the odds of hitting the flush are "four to one against", i.e. "You will miss 4 times for each 1 time you hit". Odds of 4:1 means a 1 in five, (20%) chance.

Hope this helps!

Cheers,
Arty


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Wed Oct 16, 2013, 06:43 PM
(#8)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Hi Arty

Thank you for replying, I thought I had it right. I have pasted the part below that got me confused and doubting myself and have highlighted what I believe is the typo, I think it should say Five not Four?

Example with the nut flush draw:
You have the nut flush draw (nine outs) on the flop and the pot is $4. Your opponent bets $1. There is now $5 in the pot ($4 + $1), and it is $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 5:1.

According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw. The pot odds are higher. You should therefore call.

You can see why this call is correct by looking at the long-term picture. If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once. That means you will win $5 for every $4 (4 * $1) you invest. That is good business.

I all so noticed that further down it said that if you have 4 out’s its 10:1 however on the chart further up it states 4 outs is 11:1!!!

Thanks for the help
Michael
 
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Thu Oct 17, 2013, 02:29 AM
(#9)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Hope this helps http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/oddschart.html

I prefer comparing %'s to %'s also as 4/1 i think of horse racing
 
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Thu Oct 17, 2013, 10:15 AM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michae2005 View Post
If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once.
The section in red looks like a mistake to me. 4:1 odds means odds of 4 to 1 against, or a one in five chance (20%).
I'll let a moderator know, and hopefully it can be corrected. Thanks for drawing this to our attention.


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Fri Oct 18, 2013, 05:55 AM
(#11)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Glad to help
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 01:36 PM
(#12)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
The section in red looks like a mistake to me. 4:1 odds means odds of 4 to 1 against, or a one in five chance (20%).
I'll let a moderator know, and hopefully it can be corrected. Thanks for drawing this to our attention.

Hi
Can I just point out that this is still wrong and confusing me . Am I right in saying that if I have 2:1 (15 outs) to hit my hand I would need pot odds off 3:1 to break even in the long term?

Thanks
Michael
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:14 PM
(#13)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
If hand odds are the same as pot odds, then you break even.


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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:22 PM
(#14)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Just as an extension to what Arty wrote,

If the pot odds are greater than the hand odds you will make money in the long run.

E.g. As what you wrote

Pot odds 3:1
Hand odds 2:1

You will make money.

Cheers,

Pullin
 
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Sat Jan 11, 2014, 04:54 PM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michae2005 View Post
Hi Arty

Thank you for replying, I thought I had it right. I have pasted the part below that got me confused and doubting myself and have highlighted what I believe is the typo, I think it should say Five not Four?

Example with the nut flush draw:
You have the nut flush draw (nine outs) on the flop and the pot is $4. Your opponent bets $1. There is now $5 in the pot ($4 + $1), and it is $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 5:1.

According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw. The pot odds are higher. You should therefore call.

You can see why this call is correct by looking at the long-term picture. If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once. That means you will win $5 for every $4 (4 * $1) you invest. That is good business.

I all so noticed that further down it said that if you have 4 out’s its 10:1 however on the chart further up it states 4 outs is 11:1!!!

Thanks for the help
Michael

You need 2 to 1 odds to break even on a 1 in 3 chance to hit.
You need 3 to 1 odds to break even on a 1 in 4 chance to win.
You need 4 to 1 odds in order to break even on a 1 in 5 chance to hit.

In the above example, the pot stands at $4 before the flop. The flop comes, and you hold a flush draw. An opponent in front of you then bets $1, making the total pot $5. You must call $1 to continue.

The chance to hit your flush draw is approximately 19% on the next street (9 outs divided by 47 unknown cards), therefore you will hit it roughly 1 time in 5 attempts (actually, you'd need a 20% chance to hit to have a 1 in 5 chance exactly).

At the time you must make your decision the pot odds to call are 5 to 1, since you would be risking 1 to potentially win $5.

In this example you will lose $1 a total of 4 times (or $4), for every $5 pot you win. If the pot were only $4 instead of $5, you'd just about break even (actually be a bit under break even, but the rule of 4 and 2 is not exact). Since the return exceeds the risk, you should make the $1 call here.

I see nothing wrong with the example as presented here...

I do think the part in red is just a typo. I think it meant to read:

If you make this call FIVE times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once, and lose 4 times.


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Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 11, 2014 at 04:58 PM..
 
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Sun Jan 12, 2014, 10:18 AM
(#16)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Thanks for the replies I have worked out how I had got myself confused. I was trying to explain it to a friend at work and when righting an example I had miss calculated the maths. Feel a bit silly now as I have all ways been good at maths but thanks again
 

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