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Cbet fold percentage?

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Cbet fold percentage? - Thu Oct 10, 2013, 06:12 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

hypothetical situation


villain VPIP/PFR 40/6. Villain limped preflop, Hero isloated.

Flop heads-up

Hero looks at villains cbet fold percentage and notices it's 80%

Hero cbets, villains calls

In a very general and basic sense do we say that since villain folds to a cbet 80% of the time, then can we estimate that villain has continued with 20% of his 40% limping range, and so therefore we are looking at about 8% of hands that connect with the flop (0.2*40 = 8)?

We can therefore assume that villain has more than likely hit this flop in some way, and then we need to think what we beat, etc.

Is there any validity in what I just wrote?

It seems right that if villain folds to a cbet a high percentage of the time, and then continues when hero cbets then we should be thinking that we should not be bluffing at all. We either need a strong hand, or call when drawing to what we think is the nuts.

Cheers,

Pullin1988

Last edited by pullin1988; Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 06:15 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 08:11 AM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
You are partially correct, but it also depends on the flop texture.
If it's a dry flop, then he usually has something when he calls the c-bet.
But if it's a wet board, he can easily have a draw that he decided to play passively by calling.
But even if we know we are beat, we can't always give up on the turn since we become exploitable.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 08:14 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 09:15 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
In a very general and basic sense do we say that since villain folds to a cbet 80% of the time, then can we estimate that villain has continued with 20% of his 40% limping range, and so therefore we are looking at about 8% of hands that connect with the flop (0.2*40 = 8)?
Almost.

He plays 40% of hands, but he doesn't limp 40% of hands. He raises 6%, so only limps (or calls!) with 34%. There's also the fact that he might limp-fold sometimes, so the range of hands he sees the flop with after limping might actually be closer to 30% or less. His flop-calling range is therefore smaller than 80% of 40%.
Since he usually limp-calls pre and then folds to a c-bet 80% of the time, you can be pretty sure he has something when you bet. Just how strong that "something" is will depend on the board texture and the bet-size you chose.
If you really wanted to, you could knock up some ranges with Equilab, and then narrow them based on the HUD numbers and a particular board texture, but I would point out a few things:

* You need a large sample size for stats like "fold to c-bet" to be trustworthy. As Gambling Prop points out, board texture has a lot to do with it. This villain might be addicted to chasing flushes and straights, but folded on the last 5 flops because they were dry boards, while the one you're looking at is dripping wet.
* It's really hard to put a 40/6 guy on an accurate range, because his limping range could be quite different to the range you might think it is. e.g. He might limp AJs, but raise with 99, or vice versa. He might limp A3o, but fold 76s, even though the latter is a more playable hand. Also note that his 40% VPIP could have included many hands that would be open raises in some spots, but obvi-calls and not raises in others. e.g. I open raise 88 in the CO, but I'm never raising it if there's already a raise in front of me.
* HUD stats can't account for any game dynamic on one particular hand, such as him being tilted from the previous one, or him just winning a big pot and being very deep stacked and feeling "gambly".
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
It seems right that if villain folds to a cbet a high percentage of the time, and then continues when hero cbets then we should be thinking that we should not be bluffing at all.
Absolutely! If I'm betting into someone expecting him to fold a high proportion of the time, alarm bells start ringing if he calls!


Bracelet Winner

Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 09:26 AM..
 
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Thu Oct 10, 2013, 09:25 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
cheers guys.

thanks for the advice.

Pullin1988
 

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