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few questions

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few questions - Fri Oct 11, 2013, 04:40 PM
(#1)
sc2zerker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 15
Got a few questions. Please help!

Let's start with an example.

Example#1
Your hand = (4 :heart:, 5 :heart
The flop = (Q :heart:, 7 :spade:, 2 :heart

So from my point of view it looks like this

2 :heart:, 4 :heart:, 5 :heart:, 7 :spade:, Q :heart:

My understanding of the situation.
You have hit a flush draw, Any heart will make a flush for you. You have 2 chances. A turn, A river to hit your draw. You can use the rule of 2 and 4, you count your odds.

9, hit on the turn. = 18% chance to hit flush
4x9, hit on the river. = 36% chance to hit flush

So, for example, if someone all ins you. You would have a 36% chance to hit your flush and win (assuming he isn't trying to hit a flush that beats your flush) You compare your pot odds, If pot is 2000, You need to call 500, You would have 4:1 pot odds(20%) odds compared to your 3:1 hand odds(33%) (if) your hand odds are greater than the pots odds, you call. In this case we would call because it would be profitable.

hand odds > pot odds = profitable play
hand 3:1(33%) > pot 4:1(20%) = Profit

Question #1

A straight draw is not yet possible, but might become possible if we hit a 3 or a 6 on the turn. So it would only be x2 at best. Do we only count for the flush draw, or do we stop and start to think about the possibility of a straight?

(simply say we don't have straight draw yet, there for we only count the flush draw)

Question #2

We would have 8 outs to hit a straight draw, So a straight would only be possible on the river. So we have 16% chance to hit a draw, Then another 16% chance to hit that draw. The math I would do is,

16% x 16% = 2.5%, So on the flop we have a 2.5% chance of hitting a straight with our hand, which could count for an addiotional out. 2.5% = 1.25outs (rounded to 1 out)

So there you have it, We have 9 outs because of the flush, but 10 out because of the straight. Do we count 9 or 10 out in this situation?

Question #3 One step further.

We can also hit double 4's, or double 5,s to make a set or 2 pair. making another monster hand. Since there are 3 4's and 3 5's on the river We can say, hitting a 4 and a 5 makes a monster hand(two pair) and hitting 2 5's or 2 4's makes a monster hand(a set). To hit 2 4's would be 3x2 =6% x 6% = 0.3% chance, Same with 2 5's = 0.3% chance and a 4 and a 5 would be roughly 0.3% chance as well. Giving us a 1% chance of hitting 2 pair or a set.

So 1% is 1/2 an out. Do we have 10.5 out now? We orginally started with 9 outs, giving us 36%, now we have 10.5 out giving us 42% it's a whole 6% more now.

(please check my math, i'm not 100% sure it's accurate. It looked good on paper but it might not translate well because of a variable i'm not looking at.)

Question #4

If i have this hand, I can easily give it 36%(from the flush draw) +3% for straight and 1% for the two pair and set's giving me a quick 40% instead of the 36%. You can do that in under a second just seeing the cards. Which I can use in my multi-tables. (straight possible by river= 3%, two pair, set possible by river = additional 1%, giving me 4% more, givign me 40% 5:2 odds not rounded down 36% 3:1 odds)

Should I add these percent while making calls or not? I mean they are simply added bonuses and give me a better hand % not better pot odds, but in return i can call more hands. Which might be a good thing if i have the right percent but might be a bad thing because now i'm calling more hands risky more money because i simply had a few addiontal %

Thanks
 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 05:50 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,859
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Hi sc2zerker!

When using the rule of 4 and 2, we can only use 4.. IF... we are on the flop and there are no bets that can be made on the turn. If there are chips behind that could be bet on the turn, then we have to look street by street.

With a flush draw, I have 9 outs, so I have 18% equity. I can only pay up to 18% pot equity... or I need to fold.

For question 1: I don't have a straight draw that can get there the next street, so it doesn't count.

Question 2: irrelevant, as I cannot make a straight on the turn. If I get a card that can then make one on the river... then and only then can I look at it.

Questions 3-4: see number 2

The bottom line.. for looking at the equity to the turn (which is all I can do with chips behind).. I have 9 outs, so I have 18% equity.

If you want to look at the other things, then you'll need to go into what the opp's range is to... and counterfeit a number of these outs too. The best thing is to go with what you know you can hit to have a made and hopefully winning hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 07:04 PM
(#3)
sc2zerker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 15
Hi, Firstly thank you for your post.

I would like to share with you that I have posted my question on multiple forums as I wanted to hear multiple opinions on the example provided above.

http://www.******************/forum/...hreadid=278991

First thing, Thank you for reminding me that the rule of 4 cannot be used unless your opponent cannot raise you on the turn. I actually was giving some thought to that when I posted my example. This is why I included the fact that my opponent had "all-in" after the flop with his chips. So using the rule of 4 on the flop would be a viable option in this scenario.

So with a flush draw, in all-in situation where I can call a 2000chip pot with 500chips, giving me 4:1 pot odds, I would be able to use the rule of 4 because my Villian has no more chips to raise me on the turn.

(Am I correct on this conclusion?)

In the response from legand73, from pokerstrategies. He introduces me to a concept known as "back door draws" or (runner-runner). He said that I can include these back door draws if they do indeed give me the strongest hand. (in this case a back door straight, giving me 1 more out on the flop)

Since I can count a back door draw in this situation I could count my outs as 10, instead of 9. Making the back door draw relevant because it is increasing my hand odds. (giving me better equity).

Now my equity is 20%, instead of 18% to pot odds that 4:1 (20%) so instead of have a 2% less hand odds, saying its 48%hand odds to 52%pots( Which means I should fold when hand odds < pot odds, It becomes 50% - 50% - A reasonable coin flip.

I would like to hear your reasoning why back door draws are irreverent, or at least in this scenario. As I'm completely open to looking at all different views on the game.

Thanks for your time, Again I appreciate your response.
 
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Fri Oct 11, 2013, 10:01 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,859
(Super-Moderator)
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If you're all-in, then you can use 36% for the flush draws.

Yes, the backdoor draws will account for something, but how about the times where the opp hits a bigger straight or flush. If you want to take these into effect, then you will also need to account for all the hands where you hit and the opp will still make a better hand too.

If you want to take everything into account, the best thing to do is to go to pokerstove and put in your cards, the board cards and the opp's range and this will give you a total representation. However, you will need a read on the opp, so that you can accurately input their range.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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