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Big $2.20 turned flush vs. river board pairing - correct call?

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Big $2.20 turned flush vs. river board pairing - correct call? - Fri Oct 11, 2013, 10:34 PM
(#1)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
Middle stages of the Big $2.20. Villain is moderately loose and generally passive.



I hadn't played too many hands recently, so I thought it was good time for a steal. Luckily, I had a good flop when I was called and a better turn. But I don't know about the river.

Now, the good news is that I DIDN'T instantly decide to commit all my chips - I thought about it, and I thought that with a bet like this, he's only calling a shove if he's got me beat, so I just called, thinking that even if I lost I'd still have around 40bb or so.

Was this a good call, or did I miss something?
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 08:35 AM
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pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
I think you played this good
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 10:36 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Christxof!

The key when trying a steal or bluff is that I need to bet it the EXACT same as I would with a made nut hand.

With Q9s on the button, I'm going to make my standard opening raise to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper at this blind level, so I will raise to 500.

The flop gives me a draw and when the opp checks, I need to make my standard value bet of 1/2 pot (713). No more, no less. I need to make the exact same bet that I'd make with AA or any other hand that I want to value bet.

The turn gives me a flush and once again, I need to make the same standard value bet of 1/2 pot (1413). By keeping the bets standard, the opp won't know whether I have the flush or not.

The line that's taken here: Std bet pre says strength. Smaller than std bet on flop says weakness. Much larger bet than normal, says strength. With the line NOT being consistent, an observant opp will notice this and be making notes on it about you. When you show the hand, they will note that the player bets small with draws, then overbets with a made hand. This will work against the player, as an observant opp will use this note on future hands to bluff when the opp bets small and fold when they bet big. This way, all of the bluffs are picked off and they get no value from their made hands.

The board pairs on the river and now the opp bets 3800. When a passive opp suddenly leads, they're normally doing it for value and not as a bluff. While I can be beat by a full house, I do have a made flush. Since I need to put 3800 into a pot that will be 13625, I only need the opp to NOT have a full house or larger flush 27.9% of the time in order to call here. With trips, two pair and lower flushes in their range, I think this is probably the case, so I will make the call.

I do not want to raise here, as my hand DOES have showdown value, but may not be the best hand.
I also agree with your statement where if the river is raised, the opp is only going to call with a full house, which beats my flush.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 10:57 AM
(#4)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks for the reply, JWK.

The slightly-smaller than 1/2 the pot bet was actually the standard line I was taking for most of this tournament, with the exception of some multi-way hands. So an observant opponent who saw me play beforehand probably wouldn't see that as weakness. However, you do bring up an interesting point about the bet-sizing after I make the flush - that wasn't the first time I had fired a second barrel, but it WAS the first time I had made it about 60% of the pot instead of 1/2.

I will admit that if I thought the opponent was observant, I would have made my bet smaller, around 1/2 the pot rounded up. But because this opponent was passive, I assumed I'd be able to get more out of them.
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 11:03 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Christxof!

The key when running these are standard bet sizes. Trust me from experience. When you use the std sizes, you will be amazed at what you can get away with.

The thing is that by making every single bet standard, the opps won't know if you've got the absolute nuts or 27o. Don't show your bluffs nor made hands unless they pay to see them is another key.

If you make a bet that is non-std, then observant opps will do a double take and it'll either be a bluff or big made hand and as soon as they see you show one or the other, then they know your play style and can use it against you. If all the bets are standard, then they can't pick up on this and have to guess whether you have it or not.

John (JWK24)

P.S. It's not just the opp that you have to be worried about. Everyone else watching the table can be looking for things like this. It's a reason why we always want to be watching the table, whether we're in the hand or not.


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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 11:12 AM
(#6)
Christxof's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 256
You make an excellent point. I think only one other guy at this table was observant (the bigstack), but that same guy was also so tight that I was never in a hand with him. But there were DEFINITELY a few observant players once I made the money.

It's also funny that you brought up 7-2 - I actually stole a pot with that once during the same tournament. Let's just say villain_8 in the hand you saw likes limping a lot, seeing a lot of flops, and usually folds post-flop, and there was no way I was going to let him take the blinds of the sit-outs by limping.
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 11:16 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Right idea.. punish the limpers and pound on them.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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