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25nl Zoom AA

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25nl Zoom AA - Sat Oct 12, 2013, 01:00 PM
(#1)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi,

This guy has some wear stats he seems tight, but he opens pretty wide from EP.

vs 18/16/4,1AF 39%F3B RFI EP 20%, from EP he folds to 3b 25% 888 hands.

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button ($41.86)
SB ($48.02)
BB ($26.96)
UTG ($25)
MP ($30.08)
Hero (CO) ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
UTG raises to $0.62, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.90, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.28

Flop: ($4.15) 8, K, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.20, UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $2.80

Turn: ($14.15) 10 (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero...

So i was kind of lost on this hand, because he seemed like a reg but then he flats a 3b OOP on EP which for a reg normally means JJ QQ AK, of those only AK plays the flop like that if he is really bad and i block 2 A's . I noticed he had low F3B so i thought he might be calling 3b with all pp.

Unfortunately i didn't notice he is opening 20% from EP, wich means he can also have some suited broadways and i don't have the Ad, but i dont know if he min CR with his flush draws.

The turn i feel is where i have to make my decision, because if i call i would never fold to a $10 bet on a $30 pot on the river. What do you do?
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 02:16 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
It's an easy shove in my opinion.
Yeah, he might end up with a set, or calling the 3bet with his K8s, KTs and be doing this for value, but we are ahead of a lot of Kx, 8xdd and flush draws that I see no real reason to not shove.
Also, if he was bluffing on that flop, he would probably continue firing on that turn.
All things considered I shove turn without much thinking.
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 02:17 PM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
We might even consider just calling turn sometimes on a dry board to keep his bluffs on his range, but on such a drawy board, I am not sure about it.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Sat Oct 12, 2013 at 04:24 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 05:09 PM
(#4)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
What about his check raise or raise cbet stats OTF? sometimes min raise means much more strength. I don't see K8 in his hand range and don't think he would check raise with KT OTF. and I think main decision we have to make OTF .
 
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Sat Oct 12, 2013, 06:08 PM
(#5)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Well on 3bet pots vs Cbet he has check-raise once on 6 opportunities (not counting this hand)he has fold the rest.
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 03:37 AM
(#6)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
Well on 3bet pots vs Cbet he has check-raise once on 6 opportunities (not counting this hand)he has fold the rest.
I think there is very small part of semi bluffs. Very often with a K on the board after x/r I see sets , I think fold is better decision.
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 03:47 AM
(#7)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
lol what is he repping?

KK would 4b pre. He is literally repping 2 hands (88 or 33) if he flats 3bs OOP with PPs. He might have AK (played terrible if he does) or Kx, which we are crushing.

At 10nl or 5nl vs a nit reg you could consider folding AA here, but at the aggression level of 25nl, we should be reshoving the flop.
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 07:08 AM
(#8)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
lol what is he repping?

KK would 4b pre. He is literally repping 2 hands (88 or 33) if he flats 3bs OOP with PPs. He might have AK (played terrible if he does) or Kx, which we are crushing.

At 10nl or 5nl vs a nit reg you could consider folding AA here, but at the aggression level of 25nl, we should be reshoving the flop.
Just thought about KK, you didn't give his 4bet stats, maybe he plays kings that way. And birdayy he isn't aggressive .

Last edited by Shichi-77; Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 07:13 AM..
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 09:17 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Ooh - tough spot

Have been encountering a lot of tough spots this morning myself, so ... will take a break and look over your tough spot for a bit instead of more of my own


So hard to read anything into the villain's bet sizing on the turn, since he doesn't need to raise a lot to get all the money into the middle by the river - like, if he's got suited broadways in his range, then might he be double-barreling with those? Or might he be trying to get stacks in by the river with a set, since all the pocket pairs might be in his range too? Or could he be doing this with AK? Or even the other AA?

Sometimes in spots like these I think HUD stats can make a difference. There's a handful of profitable regs at 10nl who have much wider ranges pre-flop, and they all tighten up considerably by the turn and river. So the stats for them I like to look at are their turn c-bet, and wtsd/w$sd? It'd be awfully spewy to check-raise and double-barrel in a 3-bet pot with just a flush draw, so like ... if the villain here routinely plays like that oop, then over 888 hands it would seem like that sort of play ought to be showing up in their results?

Although, if they really nit up on later streets, then ... I still wouldn't be sure what to do


Tricky spot

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Oct 13, 2013 at 09:28 AM..
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 11:40 AM
(#10)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
He has 8,7% 4bet, non has been from EP, so maybe KK some of the time.
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 01:10 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
If he's still playing 25nl after 888 hands, I'd have to assume his wtsd/w$sd are fairly normal?


And maybe he could be playing AdQd this way?

So, maybe his value range might be AdQd (1 combo), AA (1 combo), 88(3 combos)?
Possibly KK(3 combos), 33(3 combos), AdJd(1 combo), QdJd(1 combo), JdTd(1 combo)??


Gosh, I don't know ... maybe based on the combos alone, a fold on the turn wouldn't be so bad since you'd have only invested like 1/4 of your stack by that point?
 
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Sun Oct 13, 2013, 03:01 PM
(#12)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
what about his avg. all-in equity? nits are read that way too. The thing is you don't have so mich time to think there
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 05:57 AM
(#13)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
This is not so obvious a spot. It is true what Carlos says, that villain can have all pocket pairs because of the combination of his UTG raise and his fold to three-bet, when put in context of the preflop sizes.

But then he can also have a few more flush draws as a result, and might overplay AK.

Does someone want to do some pokerstoving?
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 07:08 AM
(#14)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
I just want to know. how do you think would some one with such stats overplay TPTK and semi bluff draws. If he would, that's easy shove OTT.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 09:00 AM
(#15)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Made some pokerstoving from what IMO his range on that turn could be:

Board: Kd 3d 8c Th

KK,88,33,QdJd,AKo 62.696%
AA 37.304%

I didn't take into account villain's semibluffs but JdQd, which I think will surely bet turn.
And we aren't doing that bad equity wise.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 09:38 AM
(#16)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I did a bit of equilab calcs for you.

Here's some rough preflop ranges once we have 3b and he has called:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    15.99%  15.02%   0.97% { 77+, AQs+, AQo+, KQo }
CO     84.01%  83.04%   0.97% { AsAc }


OTF loose c/r range:

Board: 8:club:K:diamond:3:diamond:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    38.39%  36.31%   2.08% { AdAh, KhKs, KhKc, KsKc, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, AhKh, AdQd, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }
CO     61.61%  59.54%   2.08% { AsAc }


I gave his flop range sets, overpairs, top pair and the nut flush draw. Vs this range we have ~60% equity so we are fine getting it in.

OTF Tight c/r range:

Board: 8:club:K:diamond:3:diamond:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    79.87%  73.90%   5.97% { AdAh, KhKs, KhKc, KsKc, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, AdQd }
CO     20.13%  14.17%   5.97% { AsAc }


If he only check/raises a tight range, like sets, nut flush draws and overpairs, then our equity drops to 20%.

I assumed his range remains the same when he check/raises the flop and barrels the turn.

Does this help?

It all depends on whether he'll check/raise top pair.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 09:47 AM
(#17)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Without AK

Board: 8c Kd 3d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.970% 21.97% 00.00% 116 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 78.030% 78.03% 00.00% 412 0.00 { KK, 88, 33, AdQd, Ad5d, QdJd }


With AK

Board: 8c Kd 3d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.465% 46.46% 00.00% 368 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 53.535% 53.54% 00.00% 424 0.00 { KK, 88, 33, AKs, AdQd, Ad5d, QdJd, AKo }


So it comes to whether he overplays AK, but even if he does vs that range we wouldn't be a favorite. His AF its a bit high IMO, but still I don't know if he would raise with AK, I mean if they just call preflop AK its because they are afraid of KK AA so why would it change that when they hit a K. This is starting to look more like a clear fold.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 10:41 AM
(#18)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
But what if he has AK and he pulls out his pokerstove and types in your range of QQ+ and AK 45% equity and AK has 55% on this board. So if he is all into this math stuff like you lot he might just think its worth raising because he has more equity vs that range and he has fold equity.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 11:24 AM
(#19)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
But what if he has AK and he pulls out his pokerstove and types in your range of QQ+ and AK 45% equity and AK has 55% on this board. So if he is all into this math stuff like you lot he might just think its worth raising because he has more equity vs that range and he has fold equity.
If he is into 'this math stuff' he's probably a good enough player to know that raising AK OTF is terrible because it folds out any hands he is beating.
 
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Mon Oct 14, 2013, 01:17 PM
(#20)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
His af is not even close to high carlos, you may check it in leak tracker.
 

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