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Need some advices with odds & Poker hands analysis

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Need some advices with odds & Poker hands analysis - Fri Oct 18, 2013, 03:23 AM
(#1)
xXQcNinjaXx's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 9
Hi guys,

I've just started to play cash game NL1-2c and I have a hard time trying to make the best decision as I am pretty sure I am miscalculating my odds. I am also not really disciplined, so it can cost me lots of money, even if I know I am beaten because they are thight players. I am scared of being bluffed and losing some money I could have win. For that part, playing is the cure I guess, as those bad habits tend to go away as I am playing more hands. Doing them is so frustrating that you discipline yourself! Like bullying small stack like in a tournament. I've done it a couple of times and realized my mistake after I lost the hands. I have some experience and good results in tournament so far for a casual/starting player. My best was 27 out of 9k players($2+0.20 buy-in). I'm doing small tournaments only. I am not good enough for serious player yet!

Then come the odds.... I just don't get how they change from flop to the turn, and from the turn to the river. I read about the rules of 4 and 2, but I also read that the odds of hitting a flush draw, for exemple, is about 4:1 after the flop, and roughly the same after the turn. But if you use the rule of 4 and 2 it should be about 36%, so 2:1 after the flop and then about 18%, so 4:1 after the turn? How does the Odds can stay roughly around 4:1 after the flop, and the same after the turn!? Maybe I just read some wrong information...

As you can see, I am struggling with odds. How did you learn to correctly calculate your odds? Is there any other tips or advice? Would it be a good thing to memorize the chart in the Cash game course? And is there any place were there are some common odds/ ratio I could memorize? (4:1 = 20%, etc)

I'd also like to have some feedback about this sample of 806 hand played so far in cash game.

Hold'em (Real Money):

806 hands played and saw flop:
- 28 times out of 105 while in small blind (27%)
- 38 times out of 107 while in big blind (36%)
- 61 times out of 594 in other positions (10%)
- a total of 127 times out of 806 (16%)

Pots won at showdown - 15 out of 33 (45%)
Pots won without showdown - 93


I have downloaded FPDB, but haven't found how it worked yet Maybe some one would know a better free software or is it a good one?

Thank you guys for your help!!!

Last edited by xXQcNinjaXx; Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 03:26 AM..
 
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Fri Oct 18, 2013, 09:50 AM
(#2)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Hello xXQcNinjaXx,

Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline. Here's a short video about PSO and what it has to offer you. Also check out >>This Page<< for more info.



I'm perhaps not the most qualified to give advice but when it comes to calculating odds I stick pretty much to the rule of 2 and 4, it's never far off. And the more you play the more it will become like second nature. As for your stats, while it's hard to tell from the simple PokerStars ones they give, it looks reasonably solid TAG to me. However I know a man who's a bit more qualified to give advice and I'll send him this way, Arty. You might like to check out his blog, The ABC of 2NL.

We're here to help you so please feel free to ask any questions you may have and thank you for being a member of PokerSchoolOnline.

Also if you've not already, you're invited to join out Community Home Games Club, details of which can be found here.

Cheers,

Chris



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Fri Oct 18, 2013, 06:17 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Hi xXQcNinjaXx!

Many of your questions will be answered by working through the PSO coursework that you can find listed at the top of this page, or by going to http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/courses
Regarding odds and outs, I recommend using the rule of 2 for most situations. You only get to see the turn and river for a one-off payment if you're all in on the flop. The rest of the time, you're faced with a bet on the flop, and then another one on the turn. With a typical draw, you usually have about a 20% chance of hitting on the next card. A flopped flush draw might have a 36% chance of completing by the river, but if you don't hit it on the turn, then with only one card to come it's closer to 18%.

I think you should try to memorize the odds charts in the coursework, but the basic idea to remember is that you shouldn't be chasing draws if an opponent is making big bets of close to pot-sized. Being a "calling station" won't be profitable, so don't make a habit of calling bets (especially on the turn) if an opponent is betting more than half the pot. Be the player driving the action by betting with made hands. Let the chaser make the mistake of calling without the right odds to do so!

The stats you provided show you're a little looser in the blinds than is perhaps optimal, but you're OK overall I think. It's hard to analyse over this relatively small sample size. Ultimately, you'll need to win at showdown more often (a shade over 50% would be good), so you'll have to give villains more credit for strong hands if they keep firing. There's not as much bluffing going on as you might think, so you have to learn to make solid folds when it seems you're beat.

I can't help with FPDB as I've never used it, but there are a couple of threads about it in the software forum.

Hope this helps, and you also find some useful info on my blog. Have fun on the forum!

Cheers,
Arty


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Oct 19, 2013, 12:39 AM
(#4)
xXQcNinjaXx's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 9
Thank you guys for the fast answers!

I've already done the PSO courses about cash game. I was not sure about my odds because I read a post saying that a flush draw was around 4:1 after the flop and after the turn. Means that the guy was using only the rule of 2, as you told me to!

And I know I'm weak on defending my blinds... Something I'll really need to improve. I fold quickly. Just don't get why I should call with trash hand, just to defend my blind if I know I'll fold after the flop? Is it a weakness to be tight on the BB? Should I always call the 2c, 4c or 6c more I've to invest to see the flop when my hand is air or JTo or something like that?

Thank you for the help! Really apreciated!

Last edited by xXQcNinjaXx; Sat Oct 19, 2013 at 06:34 PM..
 
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Thu Oct 24, 2013, 04:56 PM
(#5)
Nataraj1's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 573
On Flop, if All In, i.e. we are going to the river with no more bets: Chances of hitting your outs: Outs x 4%
On Flop, going to Turn, and having to re-evaluate: Chances of hitting your outs: Outs x 2%
On Turn, going to River: Chances of hitting your outs: Outs x 2%

So you can see that the 4 x rule only applies from the Flop, when no more bets will go in between the turn and the river, and in the case you are doing flop, then turn, then river, you would use the 2 x rule.

Note: these are approximations but they are good enough. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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Thu Oct 24, 2013, 05:51 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by xXQcNinjaXx View Post
And I know I'm weak on defending my blinds... Something I'll really need to improve. I fold quickly. Just don't get why I should call with trash hand, just to defend my blind if I know I'll fold after the flop? Is it a weakness to be tight on the BB? Should I always call the 2c, 4c or 6c more I've to invest to see the flop when my hand is air or JTo or something like that?
I don't think you should be playing many hands in the blinds, unless you get particularly good pot odds from 2 or 3 players already in the pot. It's very hard to make money when you're playing out of position, so I'd recommend you stick with pocket pairs and suited Broadways in the blinds, as these are at least easy to play for the most part. Offsuit cards don't flop very well so are best avoided, at least until you've gained more experience of post-flop play. Remember that tight is right, especially in the blinds. For more advice on playing tight-aggressive in cash games, have a look at my ABC blog.


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