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Big 5.5 - Turn line and River decision

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Big 5.5 - Turn line and River decision - Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:18 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
I'm not sure, but I think I got moved recently to this table as I only have 18 hands on the table. Villain was 39/22/7.

I open UTG with 99 and they call from the BB. We bet for value OTF but I figured I check the turn to control the size of the pot and look to get called OTR from 33, 55, 77, 88 or bluff catch.

OTR, villain puts us for a tournament decision.
Would villain over bet the river for value after we checked the turn?

 
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Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:55 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
They may be value shoving with 55,77, but that's the only hands that we beat other than a bluff.
Now if we bet/fold turn we can probably shut down all the bluffs, but I am not sure if it's the most profitable line.
As played vs a TAG villain I am calling river, but vs a loose I guess I am folding, since they can easily call with a lot of 4x,6x pre.
So yeah I am folding vs this villain.
 
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Fri Oct 18, 2013, 12:57 PM
(#3)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
Calling is right there , I call. let me find some hands Thay hit such flop too rarely . in all hands we shoved weakness thats a good reason to bluff



Last edited by Shichi-77; Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 01:24 PM..
 
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Sat Oct 19, 2013, 02:26 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi Geo!

With 99 (or any other hand I'm going to open with), I need to make a standard raise, which for this blind level is to 3BB+1BB for each limper. With no limpers, I will raise to 450. I don't want to raise less, as all this does is to invite other opps into the pot (most will have position on me) and also to give them the right odds to try to outdraw me.
Use this hand as an example. Even with everyone else folding, the BB only has to call 150 into a pot of 855 (17%).. it will be even lower pot-odds if others call. This means that the BB is priced in for ATC. Especially against a loose opp, I want them to have to make a -EV play against me, not to give them a +EV play.

The flop is an underpair (which since the opp was priced in to see with ATC, 6x is well within their range). When they check to me, I need to make a standard value bet. With one opp, a standard bet is 1/2 pot, so I will bet 428.

The turn puts 2 pair on the board, so now I'm beat by 6x or 4x. When the opp checks again, here is where the key decision in the hand is. I either need to do one of these two things. 1) make another standard value bet of 1/2 pot (878).. BUT.. this pot commits me, so I need to shove. OR 2) I can check behind for pot control and re-evaluate on the river.
The overwhelming majority of the time, I'm going to check here.

The river is a blank and now the opp shoves. As played, I'm folding to the shove here basically every time (unless I have a specific note on the opp that they will bluff-shove the river).

Here's the key to the hand.. let's look at it from the opp's point of view and the line that UTG takes. Preflop, they min-raise, which says weakness (most likely a marginal hand).
The flop bet is more than normal, so now they say they have a strong hand... but what fits with this line? Only 66 or 44.
The turn check behind now says weakness again and the river is a blank (25 and 57 don't make sense). Therefore, UTG has totally polarized their hand to quads or air... and there are a ton more combinations of broadway cards for air than the 2 combinations that hit quads.
Due to this, it's a PERFECT spot for them to bluff because they got in cheap preflop due to the min-raise and 6x is well within their range along with UTG's inconsistent line throughout the hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 12:05 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi John,

Thanks for the reply!

Im thinking a min raise at these levels will accomplish the same as a 3x. With the blind level and stack sizes I have a feeling this has become a standard online. But I can totally see how a min raise will give opponents good odds to call.

You describe how the river is a perfect spot for villain to bluff given the line we took and since our range consists more of broadway combos than quads, yet you said you'd fold to the river shove. Why?
 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 05:13 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hey Geo!

Why... it's a tourney and not a cash table... I can't rebuy. The other thing is that the worse the opp is, the better of a chance that they have 6x or 4x and have me crushed.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 05:31 AM
(#7)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Right Thanks John. I actually snapped there and they had 75s
 

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