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Anyone find themselves making this call?

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Anyone find themselves making this call? - Sat Oct 19, 2013, 10:28 AM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I don't want this to be subjected to rigorous hand analysis so posting it here.

Anyone else just think that the overbet on the turn looked weaker rather than stronger?



EDIT: I actually shove rather than call - but same difference really.
 
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Sat Oct 19, 2013, 12:17 PM
(#2)
maDe91's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 47
It does look really weak for sure. Basicly all the hands that improve on the Kc are hands that shouln't be calling pre except for KK. All the other hands that beat you (Ax, flushdraws) would have probably bet the flop themselves.

Still I don't know if I would have made the call myself. The variance is through the roof and it's questionable if it's +EV because the dude is obviously fishy and can easily have something shitty that just has you beat anyways.
 
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Sat Oct 19, 2013, 12:35 PM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Yeah, I wouldn't do this too often, I hate saying it because it probably sounds fishy, but I just went with my gut on it.

I wasnt shocked to see I was ahead, in fact I was slightly more confident I was ahead than behind hence the gut feeling, I wouldnt have been surprised to see I was behind either.

Currently I have no bankroll pressures, not that it is an endless pit either, but I doubt I would do this if I was down to my last few $$$.
 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 03:28 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey, Bhoylegend

Just found myself up against a big overbet, and thought of you. I remember you mentioning in the other thread that you weren't too keen on using your HUD more for bluff-catching, but sometimes the HUD stats seem to help in tough spots?

Even without a HUD, with my hand here I'd have probably folded to the river re-raise, since the price to call was so big, and the villain could have c-bet the flop with overs but didn't, and could have re-raised the turn with a flush or combo draw but didn't. And I wasn't even beating AJ. Although I guess the same could be said of your villain not betting on the flop.

With the HUD though, like the villain's wtsd was really low. And then I went to check his river pop-up, and of the times he's made it to the river, he's never bet, let alone re-raised (the 2-bet's from our hand), so I kind of feel like the HUD helped provide extra info? Thought maybe you might that interesting, I don't know?







Thought it was possible that since I bet two streets, he felt like he might be able to get a call from my Jx hands and get paid off with like his QT, but maybe all he had was AcTc and I folded the best hand, who knows for sure ...

Will try and keep my eye out for a hand where I wound up bluff-catching, based on game flow and also maybe HUD stats, for like contrast?

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Oct 20, 2013 at 04:06 PM..
 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 05:15 PM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Hi Sam,

Yeah, I did say that I try not to use the HUD for every decision, but I do consult it if I have a very tight decision and the stat is easy to get. My HUD is very uncluttered and I don't want to be over reliant on it. Its bare bones compared to a lot of others out there.

For the hand in the opening post here I didn't use any HUD stats to make my decision because this was my second hand at the table and the first time I had come across this guy so there was nothing to use it for. I just thought the bet didn't make any sense. The really stupid thing is for this guy, if he bet $2.30 or something like that then I am going to fold because it looks like a value bet to me, and I could believe that he had an A or K or a flush. When he bets $4.10 into $3.40 it just made me think that he didn't want a call. The line I was taking suggests I was giving up so why bet that much?

I was right this time but like maDe91 says it is extremely high variance and I probably dont make this move too often unless I just really feel like I did for this hand. An almost identical situation came up today except the guy made a normal bet, so I folded, it smelled like a value bet and I had 3rd pair on a 3 flush board with an A and K on it. I also had a lot more info on the person and it suggested they were a decent player. Their stats I make available to myself didnt come into it too much. I just wasnt afraid that I was being bluffed. If I was, so be it, I'll usually save moving my stack into the middle in better spots.

I will be interested to see though if you catch anyone bluffing in similar spots so do post again if you catch someone.
 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 05:21 PM
(#6)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
This is an example of where I did use my HUD to turn myself into a calling station:



Guys aggression factor was through the roof. Didn't believe that he caught any bit of that board. The K river was unfortunate but I knew he would be barreling even if he didnt have it.
 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 05:47 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
If you're calling and winning more in the net than you're losing, then definitely you should keep bluff-catching I'd say

There's a couple of bluff-catching hands in my Time Vault thread, but there's also a lot of junk in there, so it's probably hard to find them, but here's one ...

This call looks completely *insane*, but I have a really stringent, like, 20-point checklist, and this hand pretty much fit all the criteria, so I felt *okay* with the call:



Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Revised Bluff-Catching Template

Typical characteristics of spots where villains might be more inclined to try a river bluff:

● 3-bet and/or multiway pots and/or vs a shortstack
   ● because of the low spr
   ● lots of money in the middle
   ● awkward stack sizes
      ● is the villain's stack by the river too small to bet-fold?
● Between the cut-off and blinds
● Versus unknowns
● Really wet boards (straights and flushes possible)
   ● but is it still possible for the villain to have a failed draw? Or two?
● Have we given them reason to think our hand isn't that strong?
   ● have we bet, then checked?
   ● when we bet, did we bet a little on the small side?
   ● did we just call when usually we'd reraise?
● What about the villain?
   ● is the villain the type to bluff?
   ● is there reason to perceive weakness in the villain's line? Did he check when he would usually bet?
   ● was the reraise an overbet - ie does it seem more like the villain wants us to fold rather than call?
● Is the 3/4-to-a-flush non-A-high, such that the villain might be holding the A of that same suit as a blocker to the nut draw?

So at the table, my mind sort of scrolls through the check-list:

- 3bet pot
- multiway
- vs a short-stack
- lots of $ in the middle
- vs an unknown
- board was really wet with straights and flushes both possible
- but it was also possible the villain had a a failed draw or two
- I bet, then checked
- AND this is what made me call - I felt that a villain who was aggro enough to 3-bet preflop, would likely c-bet post-flop with a flush draw and overs, so that eliminated the flush from his range. And everybody calls behind to set-mine with 88, so that eliminated the straight from his range. Which meant my set was probably beating most if not all of his semi-bluffs with like a pair or 2-pr

- And it turns out he did have the Ac


Not sure too many people would agree with my call here. Even I'm not sure it was the best call - but bluff-catching's pretty much the rare exception for me. My bigger problem is folding 2nd nut type hands after I've been outdrawn on the river and half my stack is already in the middle. So I guess that's my bigger worry right now, especially since I'm in a downswing.

So many tricky spots in poker, aren't there?

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Oct 20, 2013 at 05:56 PM..
 

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