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$4.40 Zoom Tourney - Missed draw after isolation

$4.40 Zoom Tourney - Missed draw after isolation - Sun Oct 20, 2013, 01:51 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179

Zoom tourney so no real stats.

Obv we have pretty much no showdown value. I don't think he donks OTT often with an A, so unless he magically rivered a flush then I think we get folds enough % of the time.

Sun Oct 20, 2013, 02:44 AM
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I'd rather limp along preflop rather than isolate with that hand.
Although JTs plays well postflop it could be dominated, even by his limping range.
I usually give up after villain calls the cbet, but I guess on the turn we have some pot odds and implied odds to draw to the flush.
I don't much understand the shove on the river though, if you had the flush or an ace you would probably value bet less, since villain shows some weakness by checking river.
If I decided to bluff, I would rather bet 1/3-1/2 pot there.
But I prefer check/folding river.
Sun Oct 20, 2013, 10:03 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 25,135
Hi birdayy!

With JTs on the button, there are two things I can do here preflop. I can either make a standard raise (2.5BB+1BB for each limper) to 875, or I can limp behind. I don't want to do something in-between, as I'll be inviting all the opps to stay in the hand and bloat the pot preflop.

I see a HU flop, in position, and get only one overcard, but there is a flush draw. When the opp checks to me, I'm going to make a standard c-bet of 1/2 pot (948 chips).

The opp calls and the turn puts another flush and more straight draws. Now, the opp leads into me for 1250. The question now is... can I call this bet? I need to call 1250 into a pot that will be 6073 (20.6%). I have 9 outs to a club flush and from the rule of 4 and 2, my hand is worth 18% to the river. Since my pot equity is higher than my hand equity, I need to muck to this turn bet, as I do not have the correct odds to call.

With the line the opp has taken, I'd be expecting to see a weak A here a huge majority of the time. The opp raise/called preflop (would expect raise/call or limp/call). With a weaker kicker, they would check/call the flop. Then when a second flush draw hits, they lead the turn to take their one shot at winning the pot.

As played, on the river, if I want to take a shot at the pot (IF the opp could fold.. and it's a big IF and a read on the opp would be mandatory to do so). Then I need to shove the river. Even a thin value bet pot-commits me, so if I bet, I cannot bet anything less than shoving.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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