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$2.5 180 man - Preflop decision with JJ

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$2.5 180 man - Preflop decision with JJ - Sun Oct 20, 2013, 04:06 PM
(#1)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi guys,

With 1.74:1 on our call, we need to be good 37% of the time to make the call here. I'm looking for some ranges for our villains and would like to hear how wide you think their ranges might be. With just 10 hands on our opponents, Id treat them as unknown.

 
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Sun Oct 20, 2013, 04:47 PM
(#2)
Rob Sharona's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 120
I reckon one has AQ and one has AK. I guess that makes it a call, but I would still fold as I don't want to flip for so much of my stack at this point in the tournament!
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 02:04 AM
(#3)
Shichi-77's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 607
It's shove for me, With jacks I shove over two short stacks . Hand range of first is pretty wide, I think QTs+ hand range of second 66+ and ATs,AJo.

Last edited by Shichi-77; Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 02:07 AM..
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 02:14 AM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Risking 2200 chips to win about 5000, with JJ, it's an instant shove in my opinion.
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:28 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Sharona View Post
I reckon one has AQ and one has AK. I guess that makes it a call, but I would still fold as I don't want to flip for so much of my stack at this point in the tournament!
'Guessing' ideal hands for villains when looking at our hand is the wrong way to think about this. You need to think about the range of hands V1 is shoving, which hands V2 is shoving over, and how our equity fairs against that combined range. As Geo said, we need 37% equity to make the call against each respective ranges.

Vs unknowns we should be folding here.

If V1 is shoving correctly, then he will have a range of TT+,A9s+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo+

If V2 is reshoving correctly, then he will have relatively tight range of JJ+ AK+

Against this range we should be reshoving QQ+ AK+ to warrant a +EV play. If we call with JJ our EV is actually -$T500 according to ICMIZER.
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:47 AM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
I think the first villain's range is a little wider that Birdayy suggests. My push chart has pretty narrow ranges for EP, but with just less than 10bb 5-off the button, I'd usually be jamming 88+ A9s+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs AJ+ KQ (10% of hands). The iso re-shove is likely to be stronger, but should be something like TT+, AQ+.

We have about 35% equity vs the ranges given above so it's pretty close, and those 4000 chips in the middle sure look tempting. I'm not exactly sure how much of a factor ICM is at this stage. Winning the pot would give us a dominating stack, but even when we lose we still have chips to work with.

I'll be interested to see what Chris and/or Dave say when they look at this one.


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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 03:15 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi George and all,

I'm more in agreement with Arty's ranges. Birdayy makes a wise point to consider, but I would assume in a $2.50 turbo 180 very few opponents, if any, are shoving optimal ranges... certainly small enough a % of the player pool to make it more likey than not these unknowns are not. Their shoving ranges are probably wider. It seems clear JJ plays well against the first guy, it's the 2nd that's the concern. But I wouldn't be surprised to see 99+, AQo+ here given the stack situation at the tightest, which makes JJ a reshove for me. I think I would certainly fold 99, and TT is the grey area.


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