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5nl zoom, bet or induce bluffs?

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5nl zoom, bet or induce bluffs? - Mon Oct 21, 2013, 09:06 AM
(#1)
Praydk's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 504

villain 80/50, wtsd 36, River AF 4 through 21 hands
So is it better to bet or induce bluffs from flush draws?in this spot and in general. An A looks like a good card to bluff there and his af was pretty nice, although only for 21 hands.
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:05 AM
(#2)
CaRLoS_DZ87's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 184
BronzeStar
Hi Praydk,

The board doesn't have that many draws, for him to have a lot of busted draws rather than one pair hands.
there are 8x of KQ and this guy is so loose that he can have at least K9 and for every pair of 8X there are 12 combinations. In comparison for 1x combinations of every possible flush draw. Also if he had the nut flush draw he is paying you for sure with his pair of A's.
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 10:38 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi Pray,

I prefer value betting to checking by far here... don't get misled by his river AF of 4, 21 hands is no sample to even be considering this. He has voluntarily played 16 hands, went to showdown 36% of the time, so 6 times, it's not much river action and if he's been LAGing mostly thus far I'm sure some of those 6 rivers were just him betting with the lead in the hand.

I think this guy will pay us off with all his Kx hands and maybe worse pairs, but will likely check all those behind us and show them down if we check. All he can have to bluff with is busted clubs, but any nut flush draws have paired the ace, so this leaves non-nut flush draws. There's just more combos of made hands than potential bluffs for him to hold here. If he had the nut flush draw he may bet the ace if checked to, but we can't be sure of that... at least not nearly as sure as we are that he will call a river bet with it, which is always.

As an aside, if we had a more definitive read this villain was a good bluff candidate on the river, I would actually prefer a small bet to induce it over checking. It makes some sense on this river too since it's a scare card to Kx and smaller pairs. If we bet something like .95c it both makes it easier for 2nd and 3rd pair to look us up, as well as may look like a blocking bet scared of the ace and include bluff raises. If we check a river bluff will probably be in the $1.25-$1.50 range, but if we bet $1 then a bluff raise will probably be a shove to get us off all hands that don't like the ace.


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