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$4.40 - Playing the bottom of my Continuing Range

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$4.40 - Playing the bottom of my Continuing Range - Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:03 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Unfortunately i'm on the mac so only have the boom hand history:

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...084_24A660CBA2

Interesting hand for sure.

JJ is probably close to the bottom of my continuing range once an opponent raises this super dry flop multiway.

However, as it is a minraise I think our hand is too good to fold. I would expect stronger hands like sets to either raise bigger or overcall as it is such a dry flop, but who knows at these buy ins.

Turn is an absolute brick. I think our decision should be made here. I am quite suspicious of how valuey the sizing is.

If we call this turn then I think we should be committed to call most river bets pending sizing.

River is a good card as it counterfeits all his two pair hands (excluding ones that boated up), so if I don't think we can fold given the money in the middle, but i'm open to ideas.

Anybody wanna chime in? Am I just a calling station?
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:04 PM
(#2)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I think our real decision should be made on the flop.
I am either shoving, making a pot committing raise there, or I am folding.
It's going to be hard to continue on a scary turn and river card.
You would think they are 3betting pre with QQ+ and with sets they would probably just call flop.
So with that in mind I am probably going broke on the flop, or folding and waiting for a better spot.
As played, both turn and river call make a lot of sense.

Last edited by GamblingProp; Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 12:07 PM..
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 12:37 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi birdayy!

With JJ from UTG, I'm going to make a standard opening raise, which for me is to 3BB+1BB for each limper, so I will bet 90.

I flop an overpair to the board against 2 opps. When the first one checks to me, I need to make a bet both for value and to protect my hand against the draws that the opps can have. With 2 opps, a standard bet sizing is 2/3 pot, so I will bet 182. I cannot bet less than this or I can be giving the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me. If I give them the correct odds and they do end up outdrawing me, it's my own fault that I lose the hand.
The other thing here is that the pot size is small compared to the stack sizes, so I want to be building a pot, so that I can possibly stack an opp with a favorable last two board cards.

The opp now min-raises me. From their point of view, I totally understand their raise (but they should have made it 3X the previous bet, not a min). The hero bet way too small, that prices in draws. Holding top pair, the opp has to price the draws out (which they did a bad job of) or they deserve to lose if they get outdrawn.

Right now is where I need to make my decision in the hand. If the opp has a draw to beat me, they still have not been priced out, so I either need to raise enough to price them out (3X their bet is 834).. or fold. Against most opps (other than a total nit), I'm going to re-raise to 834. If I'm called, then I need to re-evaluate on the turn. If I'm re-raised, then I'm mucking and am out of the hand.

The turn is a brick and having called the raise (which I would not do), I'm leading the turn for 1/2 pot. By checking to the opp, they should be betting basically ANY turn card. So by checking, I have absolutely no clue whether I'm ahead or behind... so I don't know whether to call/raise/fold. I want to try to have the initiative in the hand going to the river since I'm OOP too.

When I get to the river, I'd be happy to check/call, as my hand does have showdown value.

I really don't want to check/call 2 streets in a row like this, it is stationy and will cost me value in the long run, as when an opp sees this, they'll check behind if they're drawing.. and get a free card to beat me.. which again will be my own fault if I get outdrawn due to it. I always want the opp to have to make a -EV play against me, not to get a +EV play where they expect to win chips from me.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 01:03 PM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Apart from a few gutshots and 9T there really isn't too many draws on a 38Tr board John.

You seem to be focused on the drawing part of his range. Given the positional action (MP vs UTG) you wouldn't range him on a made hand which would have us beat when he minraises a cbet from a (likely) strong range?

If we donk the turn, I don't think we will have more information than if we check/call. It's unlikely any of his raising range OTF will suddenly fold OTT vs a donkbet and will be in a similar situation OTR.
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 01:25 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Unless they have a set, I'm ranging them on a draw or a 1 pair hand. QQ+ should have 3-bet me preflop, so while it's in their range, I'm basically ruling it out.

Check/calling 2 streets in a row.. is a way to do it for a cash game, but not in a tourney.

Weaker 1 pair hands should muck to the lead on the turn, as they can't afford to continue with marginal holdings when we lead into them for the 2nd time.

When playing a cash game, I want to bet and take lines to possibly get more chips (even a small amount) from the opps and since I can reload, I don't mind if an opp draws out on me a given % of the time.. I want to keep them in the pot.

Tourney strategy is totally different from this. In tourneys, chip preservation is much more important. Yes, I want to accumulate chips, but only on +EV plays. I can't take lines where the opps get +EV plays at me. For example, in cash games, I'm happy thin-value betting on any street. In tourneys, I can only do this on the river. On flops/turns, I need to price out draws and not thin value bet as protecting my hand is more important that getting a few extra chips. In tourneys, unlike cash games, chips not lost are worth more than chips gained, as I have to look at tourney EV also, not just chip EV.

The line taken here as played, while it's great for a cash game, it's not how I need to go about the hand in a tourney due to the strategy differences.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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