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5NL Zoom (6max) AA Vs 'All in' OTR on K high d/board

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5NL Zoom (6max) AA Vs 'All in' OTR on K high d/board - Mon Oct 21, 2013, 08:40 PM
(#1)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar


Background

This was my 2nd hand of the session & only had 15 hands on Villain [BB] who was playing 13/7/0. No notes / information.

Pre-flop: Hero

After it folded to me on the BTN I made standard 3x R & Villain [BB] called.

Flop:

Villain checked & I decided to make a slightly larger Cbet OTF due to f/draw. Villain called.

Turn:

Villain checked again, so I cbet OTT [... should I have made larger bet?]. Villain called.

River:

Villain checked for a 3rd time, so I decided to make a small value bet OTR to get a call from Kx, 9x, 8x type hands... & Villain jammed?

My thoughts...

All draws missed, so hands that beat us OTR are pps KK; 99; 88; 33; 22 [15 combos] & TP hands that call p/f K9; K8; 89; & poss 23 [36 combos], however not sure Villain x/c 2 streets & shoves OTR with all but 99; K9 & 89?

Questions:

1). Do you agree with my analysis / range of hands?
2). Did I induce the 'All in' by making small value bet OTR?
3). Is it poss Villain shoves with Kx hands or bluff?
4). Should it be a b/c or b/f OTR?

Welcome your thoughts / comments?

BR Tony [Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Mon Oct 21, 2013 at 08:51 PM.. Reason: Added
 
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Mon Oct 21, 2013, 11:20 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think this is a clear bet/fold on the river without reads.

Apart from the FD it's a relatively dry board, so a set would be consistent with the way I would play it (c/c c/c c/shove).

1) You played it pretty standardly (bet/bet/bet). I also like your sizing as it's consistent throughout multiple streets.

2) No

3) If villain is bluffing then good for him. Vs his overall range calling a shove is spew.

4) It should be a b/f. We could check/call but we are playing the guessing game more often and betting gives us more information as to the strength of his hand.
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 02:37 AM
(#3)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
In my opinion there are two possibilities here:
1. Villain has you beat.
2. Villain just read about check/shoving rivers as a bluff and wants to try it out.
You played it well and I also have trouble folding river, but it seems like the most optimal choice there.
You would expect villain to just call river with Kx since your range consists a lot of AK.
Flush draws would probably fold turn, so villain's bluffing range consists pretty much 8x, medium pair type of hands.
Not much to justify a call.
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 05:22 AM
(#4)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Hey birdayy / GP,

Thanks for the feedback... One or two additional points:

My hand is v disguised as Villain may assume it is a standard BTN steal & does not expect me to hold . Villain may also put me on a missed draw [... hence my question re. bet sizing OTT & OTR], therefore feel that his KQ; KJ are good here?

BR Tony [Prodigy237]

Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 05:30 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 05:41 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Emmm... I think their line is reasonable with K9, 99, 9d8d because it seems that the river helped them. But I expect strong hands to lead the river some amount of the time because when they check they might risk losing value when we check back.
Can we justify a call though? Lets see... we have invested 44% of our stack so folding kind of sucks but we need to be good 30% of the time to make our call profitable on the long run. We need them to be bluffing with atleast 1 combo and/or spewing off with atleast 8 combos of Kx. Meh, maybe too ambitious.
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 05:50 AM
(#6)
cibad's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 87
Your analysis and range of hands is probably complete.
However, my guess here is that Villain was following a draw to a diamond flush. This can reduce the range of possible hands and I can guess again that Villain has 8 and 9 of diamonds.
This makes his calls and final bet consistent. Villain did not catch anything on the turn, but your low bet allowed him to see also the river. Then he put you on AK or even AA and your value bet on the river may sound also that you did not have a very solid hand (only pair!), while he had two pairs.
Finnaly, I had something similar yesterday and I simply cannot keep it to myself:
http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hand...612_E4233286CB
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 06:35 AM
(#7)
Prodigy237's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 336
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoVARTA View Post
Emmm... I think their line is reasonable with K9, 99, 9d8d because it seems that the river helped them. But I expect strong hands to lead the river some amount of the time because when they check they might risk losing value when we check back.
Can we justify a call though? Lets see... we have invested 44% of our stack so folding kind of sucks but we need to be good 30% of the time to make our call profitable on the long run. We need them to be bluffing with atleast 1 combo and/or spewing off with atleast 8 combos of Kx. Meh, maybe too ambitious.
Hey George,

Thank you for the feedback [... as always].

I came up with the same conclusion... I would expect Villain to lead out with a good % of his strong hands OTR, otherwise he risks missing some value, so decided to make a call.

Here's how the hand played out.



BR Tony [Prodigy237]

P.S. I have witnessed some random / strange hands this week at both 2NL & 5NL Zoom.

Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 06:51 AM.. Reason: Added
 
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Wed Oct 23, 2013, 05:45 AM
(#8)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Nice spew by Villain!
 
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Wed Oct 23, 2013, 06:13 AM
(#9)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
I approve also!
Nice lesson on value-owning yourself there by villain.
 

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