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implied pot odds

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implied pot odds - Tue Oct 22, 2013, 12:41 PM
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i folded here cuz i thought like that even with implied odds i dont quiet win in long run...

if i understand right implied odds i was offered to call 0.66 into pot of 1.50 but with implied odds i could win 2$ more so my odds are 0.66/(1.50 + 2)= 0.19... so i need to win my hand about 19% of the time but with my 9outs i have only 18% ... though it could be quite near call? did i understood and countet implied odds concept right?
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 02:25 PM
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You've got the general idea about implied odds correct, but the numbers aren't quite right. You have a little over $2 in your stack on the turn, but if you want to see the river you'll have to pay 66c on the turn first.
That means the maximum additional money you can get out of villain on the river is 2.06-0.66 = $1.40.
Maximum win = (current pot + money behind after call) = 1.50+1.40 = $2.90
Price of calling is 66c, so the ratio of cost:win is 66:290, which is about 1:4.4
If you were guaranteed to double up when you hit a flush, it would be a profitable call, as implied pot odds of 4.4:1 is more generous than the odds against hitting your hand (about 4:1). But you're never guaranteed to win a whole stack. The flush will be so obvious that villain might check-fold to a shove on the river, or he might bet-fold small.
I think folding is fine, but I wouldn't be in this spot in the first place. For me, K7s is a fold pre. It's barely strong enough to open in the cutoff, and can't be played profitably (even in position) in a 3-bet pot. Passively chasing naked flush draws in 3-bet pots is not going to be worthwhile in the long run.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 02:27 PM..
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
You've got the general idea about implied odds correct, but the numbers aren't quite right. You have a little over $2 in your stack on the turn, but if you want to see the river you'll have to pay 66c on the turn first.
That means the maximum additional money you can get out of villain on the river is 2.06-0.66 = $1.40.
Maximum win = (current pot + money behind after call) = 1.50+1.40 = $2.90
Price of calling is 66c, so the ratio of cost:win is 66:290, which is about 1:4.4
If you were guaranteed to double up when you hit a flush, it would be a profitable call, as implied pot odds of 4.4:1 is more generous than the odds against hitting your hand (about 4:1). But you're never guaranteed to win a whole stack. The flush will be so obvious that villain might check-fold to a shove on the river, or he might bet-fold small.
I think folding is fine, but I wouldn't be in this spot in the first place. For me, K7s is a fold pre. It's barely strong enough to open in the cutoff, and can't be played profitably (even in position) in a 3-bet pot. Passively chasing naked flush draws in 3-bet pots is not going to be worthwhile in the long run.
huh? 4:1 is my % here? u mean 25%? cuz with my 9 outs i have 18% on turn... so ...?
and i will get paid almost all the time even if flush comes... they just will have Ace here all the time, and will never fold it
 
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Tue Oct 22, 2013, 05:15 PM
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An odds ratio of 4:1 means a one in five chance of winning. 4:1 means you lose 4 times for each 1 time you win. 1:4 = 1/5 = 20%, not 25%.

I think it's a mistake to think the villain will always pay you off. If you call the turn, the pot will be $2.81 on the river. There's no guarantee that villain will bet as much as $1.40 on the river if the diamond comes, because you won't call with a worse hand than a flush. If I was him and I had AK, I'd probably bet about $1 and fold to a shove, or I might check-call a bet of around a dollar. I wouldn't be putting another $1.40 in the pot with one pair, that's for sure.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 05:17 PM..
 
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Wed Oct 23, 2013, 06:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
An odds ratio of 4:1 means a one in five chance of winning. 4:1 means you lose 4 times for each 1 time you win. 1:4 = 1/5 = 20%, not 25%.

I think it's a mistake to think the villain will always pay you off. If you call the turn, the pot will be $2.81 on the river. There's no guarantee that villain will bet as much as $1.40 on the river if the diamond comes, because you won't call with a worse hand than a flush. If I was him and I had AK, I'd probably bet about $1 and fold to a shove, or I might check-call a bet of around a dollar. I wouldn't be putting another $1.40 in the pot with one pair, that's for sure.
so i misunderstood, i thought that when pot is 100 and he bets 100 so i have to call 100 to win 200(100pot + 100his_bet) , so 100/200=1/2=50% win percentage i need?!
 
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Wed Oct 23, 2013, 09:46 AM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GayLooser View Post
so i misunderstood, i thought that when pot is 100 and he bets 100 so i have to call 100 to win 200(100pot + 100his_bet) , so 100/200=1/2=50% win percentage i need?!
If a villain bets the size of the pot, you only need to win 33.3% of the time to break even on a call.

The pot odds ratio is [pot size]:[cost of call] = 200:100 = 2:1

In simple language, you might say "I have to put in 1 dollar for each 2 dollars in the pot, so I'm contributing a third of the final total".

If you want to use fractions instead of ratios, it's [cost of call]/[pot size + cost of call] = 100/300 = 1/3

As a percentage, 1/3 = 33.3%

It might help to say "I have to contribute one third of the final pot, so I need to win it one third of the time to break even".

This is just for immediate odds. For implied odds, your call on the turn is to win the current pot (before your call) plus the amount that the villain will put in the pot on the river.

The implied odds ratio could be described as [Current pot + villain's river bet]:[Cost of calling] and the equity required to break even is calculated as [cost of calling]/[current pot + river bet + cost of call].


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Wed Oct 23, 2013 at 09:49 AM..
 

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